BAC - Bank of America - Page 323

Quote:

Originally Posted by steadyup 

I think open ended QE is a game changer and these markets will inflate from here higher than any of us can imagine, BAC included. 2.3.4.5 +....years from now will tell the story. I don't think the FED could have been more clear about buying stocks and their intentions regarding the wealth effect.

 

all the negative and cautious comments you hear on tv regarding this QE and it's possible negligible effects are from people who are underinvested and caught on the wrong side of the trade following the announcement. They will be using any weakness to switch over and the commentary will slowly start to improve as that happens.

These easy money times are not very good for banks. Their deposits are earning nothing and BAC is still hating their country wide purchase. If interest rates were increased BAC would be a huge buy as the yield curve would allow them to make more money on deposits.

BAC bouncing back on all the dips just like SLV.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HFbamafan 

 

These easy money times are not very good for banks. Their deposits are earning nothing and BAC is still hating their country wide purchase. If interest rates were increased BAC would be a huge buy as the yield curve would allow them to make more money on deposits.

When...not if.

Could this be a cup and handle?

Below is a definition of Cup and handle taken from Dan Zanger's website; CHARTPATTERNS.com

The Cup & Handle Pattern

The Cup & Handle is the corrective action after a powerful stock advance. Generally a stock will have a powerful move of some 2 to 4 months, then go through a market correction. The stock will sell off into the correction in a downward fashion for maybe 20 to 35 percent off the old high point. The time factor is generally anywhere from 8 to 12 weeks depending on the overall market condition.

As the stock comes up to test the old highs, the stock will incur selling pressure by the people who bought at or near the old high. This selling pressure will make the stock price drift in a sideways fashion with a bias to the downside for about 4 days to 3 weeks.

The handle is generally about 5% below the old high point. A handle that is any lower is generally a defective stock and contains higher risk for failure.

The time to buy the stock, is as it emerges into new highs at the top of the handle and not the old high point set some 8 to 12 weeks ago.

I have found some of the biggest stock market winners have this very powerful formation. It is one of the best and most reliable formations to look for. However, it is important to note that the best stocks with this formation are found at the beginning of a market move after a good market correction, and not during, or at the end of a major market advance.

Am I wrong to still be holding the share I got at 8$?  Anyone sell at the 9.50$ area?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Allegiance 

Am I wrong to still be holding the share I got at 8$?  Anyone sell at the 9.50$ area?

Short term you may as well ask your magic 8 ball. Anyone who tells you they know either way is full of it. Im holding shares from below 8 and didnt sell at 950. Big picture man...economy is Fukd but the stock market is the next bubble.

<<-- Market Newbie, but I love it and find it very interesting and addictive.

This isn't really the forum for this but it is kind of related.  I don't know if you guys follow Citigroup Inc. (C) but I have been looking at it as long as BAC (newbie analysis) and I think long term it may have more upside than BAC.  For myself I am looking to be a more long term investor in recovering stocks, not so much a trader.  BAC is down from all-time highs approx 83.5% and at its prime paid $2.56/share/year.  Say BAC recovers and pays dividends at the same payout, you will make roughly 28.8% on an investment that you made today/year in the long run.   Now you look at C in the same way, the stock is down roughly 94% and at its prime paid $21.60/share/year.  Now say C recovers and pays dividends at the same payout, you could make 66.4% on an investment that you made today/year in the long run.

Is my thinking insane, is there a glaring error or assumption beyond the assumption of a recovery?

I guess I'm posting this to see if there is a major factor that I am missing in that stock, with the exception of it hinging more on Europe so a bit more lengthy of a recovery perhaps.  My portfolio is likely nowhere near what most people on this site is, but got to start somewhere.

Also I'm not sure if the US has the Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA) like Canada does, but that alleviates all tax and capital gains.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Allegiance 

<<-- Market Newbie, but I love it and find it very interesting and addictive.

 

This isn't really the forum for this but it is kind of related.  I don't know if you guys follow Citigroup Inc. (C) but I have been looking at it as long as BAC (newbie analysis) and I think long term it may have more upside than BAC.  For myself I am looking to be a more long term investor in recovering stocks, not so much a trader.  BAC is down from all-time highs approx 83.5% and at its prime paid $2.56/share/year.  Say BAC recovers and pays dividends at the same payout, you will make roughly 28.8% on an investment that you made today/year in the long run.   Now you look at C in the same way, the stock is down roughly 94% and at its prime paid $21.60/share/year.  Now say C recovers and pays dividends at the same payout, you could make 66.4% on an investment that you made today/year in the long run.

 

Is my thinking insane, is there a glaring error or assumption beyond the assumption of a recovery?

 

I guess I'm posting this to see if there is a major factor that I am missing in that stock, with the exception of it hinging more on Europe so a bit more lengthy of a recovery perhaps.  My portfolio is likely nowhere near what most people on this site is, but got to start somewhere.

 

Also I'm not sure if the US has the Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA) like Canada does, but that alleviates all tax and capital gains.

You still have to pay 15% withholding tax on US divi's in a TFSA (its automatically witheld). Better than a cash account (which is fully taxable + no divi tax credit + US withholding tax) but not as good as an RRSP (none apply). My TFSA is loaded up with BAC.

Your math looks correct. Note, BAC now owns Merrill and Countrywide which they didn't at the peak. I think those 2 franchises will have incredible value in the coming decades.

Ok seriously why has nobody called out Bostonlude on his horrendous use of exclamation marks?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bostonlude 


Good point. I hadn't realized I was doing this. Good call. I don't see to we'll typing on my iPhone.
¡¡So far down 1% today!!

Haha ya I figured it was a technology issue, I was just surprised nobody said anything for that long 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtwizzy2k5 

Haha ya I figured it was a technology issue, I was just surprised nobody said anything for that long 

You did. I never really check on what I write. Most of the time the Iphone will autocorrect. Also when typing in the box while Im in the car the letters will come on a delay.

So I have some free time on my hand right now, and thought I would do something going back to 2/17/2012

If Friday had a negative close from Thursday Monday had a 54% of the time Monday for BAC is going to be in negative. (So 46% pos) so  close to 50/50

If Friday was in Positive territory 67% of the time... Monday ended in Positive territory.

So overall in the last few months since February Mondays have only been positive 37% of the time

While Fridays overall have been positive 70% of the time.

Why does this matter to me, well as I stated early BAC doesn't seem to play the technicals to well, and or MAJOR news. Yes it will spike on Major news but not for too long, and the dip and then slowly rise on NO news.

Lets take major move days

10/06/11   8.8+  WHY:Bank stocks across Europe soared following reports in the French media that the French government is considering a contingency plan to take stakes in    

                                            the country's lenders.

10/10/11   6.5%  Why: Bank stock rally 

10/18/11   10.1% Why: Q3 report, But it really wasn't all that

10/27/11    7%     Why:  BAC net income +6billion 

11/30/11    7.3%  Why: Dow up about 400 in a few days because of positive European news 

01/05/12    8.6%  Why: Bank of America surged on speculation that the US Government may introduce a loan refinancing program.

3/13-3/16   20%    wHY: I was in slovenia for this one BOA stocks soar after PASSING stress test

06/06/12    7.6%    Why: ? 

But see BAC will take off on great news but then come back down. I really didn't have time to find all the big losses but there are quite a few after big gains.

When this stock was going 7 to 8 back and forth it was on no NEWS. It takes off some times on EURO news, except it doesn't really affect much because of low exposure. I remember a large gain one day due to Greek elections and French elections even though those elected were quite left leaning. 

Now that interest rates are low I am wondering how soon can we get the stock up to 10+, a lot of money comes from Interest and bank fees (and we know these are well regulated now)

A lot of income last year came from sales of Multi million dollar properties, something that only happens once in a while.

My thought is if they can do something with Countrywide they will break past that 10 share hold 

I read an article that suggested most big funds are concerned about mortgage putbacks from Freddy and Fanny and indicated that as being the main reason for not investing in BAC common. IMO you get housing up and most of their problems are solved. The stock just randomly vibrates down here at these levels and I agree, a LUCKY trader can make a decent take. One day though it will take off and a enter into a multi year (perhaps multi decade) uptrend and I wont be missing that boat. Accumulating.......