Stock Market Today - Intraday discussion - Page 4881  

Time to follow up this chart http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forum/thread/43337/stock-market-today-equities-futures-forex-options-intraday-discussion/97220#post_2721003

Todays sell off is pretty strong, internals are well in the red, it looks like we could be pushing for my target.

Once we get into that range, which we are doing right now as I type, there are two possible long term patterns to watch. One is an inverted head n shoulders, this being the right shoulder, or two, the beginning of another leg down to new lows for the year. Scenario two will depend on the earnings and macro economic shenanigans that should be unveiling themselves over the coming weeks.

if uso fills the gap and breaks below it, then I will go ahead and buy a put.  I should of done this yesterday though

Looks like the es is going down to the 1300 level and I'm hoping that it go's down a little more so it can form a cup handle.  What do ya'll think?

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanpu 

In long spy calls for a small bounce, a lot of dip buyers out there, no where else to put money, commodities way too high

Quote:

Originally Posted by themav37 

if uso fills the gap and breaks below it, then I will go ahead and buy a put.  I should of done this yesterday though

Looks like the es is going down to the 1300 level and I'm hoping that it go's down a little more so it can form a cup handle.  What do ya'll think?

USO in for beating these 2 days. I wish I would have some puts as well.

Anyone around when Chernoble happened? I keep thinking it was some kind of explosion and tons of people died. I didn't know it was so... for a lack of better term boring.

Silver and Gold still getting weaker.

Internals still weakening, but ES holding the 1305 lows, TICKs looking a bit better, but not a very clear of a reversal yet.

yeah but Chernobyl wasn't about the explosion as what happen afterwords.  Babies where coming out deformed and mutated.  That's why when I hear about Japan's nuclear problem being that as Chernobyl I couldn't believe they would compare the two. 

so what was leaked that set the powder keg off?

Quote:

Originally Posted by themav37 

yeah but Chernobyl wasn't about the explosion as what happen afterwords.  Babies where coming out deformed and mutated.  That's why when I hear about Japan's nuclear problem being that as Chernobyl I couldn't believe they would compare the two. 

That's just it: Chernobyl was/ is a crisis that lasts decades. Chernobyl was also highly remote. I think the problem in Japan is going to be a serious issue for many years to come, especially when it comes to planting/ growing food, water supplies, etc etc.

we are in a wedge on the daily which we are touching the bottom perhaps on the hourly also.

snap back exhaustion rally, taking a break, call it whatever you want... eh.

Quote:

Originally Posted by StockJock-e 

Silver and Gold still getting weaker.

 

Internals still weakening, but ES holding the 1305 lows, TICKs looking a bit better, but not a very clear of a reversal yet.

Looking at the volume and open interest for SLV and it seems about double for calls compared to puts. Still looks like more people are bullish on SLV.

Out SPY calls for a small 5% gain. I think it has more to go. I think the earnings will be good, and then towards the middle of earnings season every stock will have good earnings baked in, then people will take profit.

Pretty sure theres a lot more puts on SLV, the higher the open interest, the less demand for that contract right?

I never looked at it that way yet.  I just read the headline late last night about comparing it to Chernobyl, so I never had to analyze it. 

Markets are trying to push forward a little but it probably wont hold IMO.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by REI_Chris 

That's just it: Chernobyl was/ is a crisis that lasts decades. Chernobyl was also highly remote. I think the problem in Japan is going to be a serious issue for many years to come, especially when it comes to planting/ growing food, water supplies, etc etc.

Not that we'd ever get there this week, but max pain for options in SLV is 31, ha. Just goes to show how far this thing has gone

All this craziness, and its not even a blip on the daily

Yahoo Article

There have been only four other occasions over the last century when equity valuations were as high as they are now, according to a variant of the price-earnings ratio that has a wide following in academic circles. Stocks on each of those four occasions would soon suffer big declines.

This modified P/E was made famous in the late 1990s by Yale University professor Robert Shiller, particularly in his book "Irrational Exuberance." In this modified P/E, the denominator is not current earnings per share but average inflation-adjusted earnings over the trailing 10 years. This modified ratio — sometimes called P/E10, or CAPE (for Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio) — has a markedly better forecasting record than the simple P/E.

According to Shiller's website, the CAPE currently is 23.5, or some 43% higher than the CAPE's long-term historical average. The four previous occasions over the last 100 years that saw the CAPE as high as they are now:

• The late 1920s, right before the 1929 stock market crash

• The mid-1960s, prior to the 16-year period in which the Dow went nowhere in nominal terms and was decimated in inflation-adjusted terms

• The late 1990s, just prior to the popping of the internet bubble

• The period leading up to the October 2007 stock market high, just prior to the Great Recession and associated credit crunch

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanpu 

Yahoo Article

 

There have been only four other occasions over the last century when equity valuations were as high as they are now, according to a variant of the price-earnings ratio that has a wide following in academic circles. Stocks on each of those four occasions would soon suffer big declines.

This modified P/E was made famous in the late 1990s by Yale University professor Robert Shiller, particularly in his book "Irrational Exuberance." In this modified P/E, the denominator is not current earnings per share but average inflation-adjusted earnings over the trailing 10 years. This modified ratio — sometimes called P/E10, or CAPE (for Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio) — has a markedly better forecasting record than the simple P/E.

According to Shiller's website, the CAPE currently is 23.5, or some 43% higher than the CAPE's long-term historical average. The four previous occasions over the last 100 years that saw the CAPE as high as they are now:

• The late 1920s, right before the 1929 stock market crash

• The mid-1960s, prior to the 16-year period in which the Dow went nowhere in nominal terms and was decimated in inflation-adjusted terms

• The late 1990s, just prior to the popping of the internet bubble

• The period leading up to the October 2007 stock market high, just prior to the Great Recession and associated credit crunch

But over the last century when did they every inject $780 Billion USD into the market and announce that they will support the market? That $780 Billion USD is pretty much here to stay until June of this year and in June they may even extend it (who knows..?).

Took my loss today...

Opened new position... 25 calls on 40 May21st for SLV... technicals in 1-month zoom are hot. (paid 1.45)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Internationalstocks 

But over the last century when did they every inject $780 Billion USD into the market and announce that they will support the market? That $780 Billion USD is pretty much here to stay until June of this year and in June they may even extend it (who knows..?).

 

Yep, the POMO action has skewed everything, we will not have a clear picture of how things really are until the Fed steps away and lets the market go on its own.

Its like teaching your kid to ride a bicycle, you are running behind them holding the seat, they are screaming "dont let go! dont let go!" .. then you let go without telling them!

Typically one of two outcomes follow.