Stock Market Today - Intraday discussion - Page 350  

Not that paper trading means $hit but I'm paper long since 488 on the Dow mini. Stop is now breakeven and out the 1st lot at +10.

This range is so boring, when it breaks it should run either way.
As I see it the YM range looks like 508 high and 485 low for now.
I don't see background weakness on a 5 minute chart so I think a fair amount are still holding long and now we need the stops to get hit either side for action to commence.

My 2 cents.

thanks guys, I make most my calls in the futures thread. I do what i can to post in advance but cant call them all and cant get em' all right.

looks like my current holdings on 2 of my stocks are working perfectly for today. bought in calls lod one one stock and been holding puts for another. about half an hour ago things for them have taken the right direction..which are opposite directions. market is stronger than opening too...

Getting close to rally monkey time!

DOW's only up +210....70 more points to go!

Bah, I hate missing my mark by 200 points!

Next time i'm going to wait until tonight and then write;

http://www.engadget.com/2007/12/21/b...rd-beer-baron/
Bill Gates is a smart guy.
He saw the subprime issue happening, and knew people would start resort to alchohol due to it. Good idea Bad idea?

I know us options investors are hitting the bottle harder.

Some MASSIVE volume on the DJI today. Stalled at the trend line which is major resistance and I can sort of see a head n' shoulders maybe forming. It feels pretty bullish to me, though it could be A TRAP.
I'm curious what you guys see in todays action? I find it very hard to believe that that volume couldn't break the resistance up unless it was being sold into, though I just don't think institutions are selling at these levels unless some MAJOR tankage is about to happen. I guess we'll know after the holidays what the real deal is.

Added----
GOD I wish we had intraday volume on the DJI, I need to see more granular what bars had what pressures.

http://www.marketvolume.com/

Found this. Not sure if it is helpful yet for intra-day volume. Can't wait for Monday to test it.

Don't get too excited people.

Todays and Monday's market move signifies nothing. Traders wanted to end the session on the plus side after a few turbulent weeks. Now one wants to ruin Christmas and the holidays. Volume isn't there at all.

Monday looks like there might be another push to the upside but again this doesn't confirm a thing. On January we'll see if these market still want to continue to move to the upside and break that monthly downtrend. Some market leaders continue to lag the market, they need to push higher to draw some attention back.

We can easily give these gains away on notable volume, which would then mean something(obviously).

I like the markets but with C and MER expected to write down AT LEAST(minimum) nearly $35B in combined mortgage back securities in '08, I am really begging to get a bit skeptical(nearly $65B for the whole sector).

Finally. I want to point out something to all that many don't seem to comprehend.

We are not in a bull market. That bull run, of this 8 year bear cycle that we've been in since the bubble in 2000, ended this summer(August). Markets are now in a wait and see mode. This is frankly a very basic type of market to trade. Hit the higher highs, make money and then break the lower lows and make money. Its that simple. There are charts being posted by members showing this. Simply Follow the trend.

What has caused people to lose money is the volatility. People don't know how to these type of trades and they get shaken out easily. Look since September and you'll see that we havn't really gone anywhere at all. Premiums are getting spiked due to VIX and IV is in turn consuming the premium spike on most stock prices, leaving the hopeless investor stranded in the middle of a two way street.

Look, you have to know that most of these stocks are getting spiked artificially. Its the end of the year and hedge funds are clearing their books. They need money to perform the routine sector rotation. People get sucked, they get in and then trade the flow.

Again, look for pattern shifts.

Have a Happy New Year everyone.

Maybe I have a guilty conscience but I feel that was somewhat directed at me so I'll address it.

I'm not excited at all, just curious what will happen mainly due to the volume today at this stage (non breakout of range). I'm not cocky enough to think the market responds to my whim or the desires of retail traders. Are you really saying that 4.3 mil when the 50 day average is 2.6 mil volume is nothing to note? I'm a rookie overall but I find that a curious statement you're making, wondering if you could clear up why/how you discount the volume. You said "traders" want to keep x-mas cheery basically, I mean that volume could NOT have been retail traders, or am I missing something there too? Are you saying that was a x-mas token like a institutional cookie to us retail investors?

Monday should be insignificant except for maybe some stop hunting I presume? I mean it's the day before x-mas so I don't think we get many fireworks just yet.

I'm not looking too far in just yet but think the volume today could be a line drawn in the sand. Due to us being in the mid range I have no clue where to lean. Though I don't trade with a true bias anyhow so I'll take it for what it's worth when I see the reaction in the coming days/new year.

You have a great new year as well, hope HSM cleans up next year...GO GREEN!

Sure mcichocki.

Yes, we set record volume right at the open today and held it pretty well throughout the day. This of course, was mainly driven by end of the year book closing by hedge fund managers and as Cire pointed out, it was also driven by options expiration. December is the month with highest volume and volatility. It is also the month were most options are exercised(this includes people who have rolled over throughout the year), ergo, creating a lag effect on the volume front. This is why we tend to see volume on a Friday prior to Christmas(option expiration),higher than usual.

In other words, this volume was to be expected with the option VIX. If you extract the volume for option expiration, we only had 2.05M on the 50DMA, 65% which is driven by the hedge fund closing.

There is tons of money on the sidelines(retail and institutional) ready to be placed in the market but confirmation of a brighter economic global outlook must be in place before notable money flow comes back into these stocks.

The first three days of trading in January I think we'll tell us where we stand mid term.

Exactly what I was looking for...thanks for the reply.

Also I just looked at the weekly chart and it better illustrates how the week before x-mas does always have some nice volume with the next week pretty dry to close the year out. I look forward to some early January signals to help steer us in our quest for the green.

Huge volume today for the up day. About double the average volume.

Watch-yoo talkin bout willis?

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Recently we made two predictions here and another site, one was that the Dow Jones would be rebounding, which was true, the other one was that the Dow Jones would rebounding to 13600 if it fluctuated going up or the Dow Jones would reach 14000 if it directly would go up.

Our predictions luckily are true by chance, perhaps the beginning’s luck.

Currently, our mid- and long-term trend suggests another historical similarity, that is, the two previous predictions were made based on the similarity between current green cycle and historical red cycle (see lower panel of chart).

Currently, the similarity between red and current cycles seems no longer to exist, but another similarity appears in history between two green cycles. If so, the previous green cycle includes the Dow Jones from March 15, 2004 to May 20, 2004. If the current Dow Jones would follow this similarity, then the Dow Jones would go down about 6% from the current level 13450 to 12650, and this process would take about 30 trading days until middle of February.

Of course, our prediction is based on the pattern similarity, and at the phase of validation, so please do not laugh if we are mistaken this time.

DreamSciTech.com

Baggi, I explained why above. Read the post.

Markets look steady.

Not much action, just pick your favorite stocks and go with the end of the year mini surge.

this week is a pretty big week it looks like.

Yes durable goods on watch.

First week of January pretty big as well.

Good day to rearrange positions, roll contracts over to other months, re-evaluation day. Looks like we did get a mini Santa Rally after all.