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post #40761 of 136697
12/23/09 at 12:52am
Quote:
Originally Posted by hitman View Post
get ready for another rally the $VIX says one is coming look at the chart from around Oct 12/09 to now its either you see it or you don't.
Well, if you include this month yeah it's breaking the 3 month support line. Like I said, I'm standing back because I need to see a few things come back together for a true signal either direction. But you know it could be, just don't forget to take a look at the larger charts 1-2 years will do.

You've got to remember that the $VIX will also "price in" and "adjust" to the new levels of fear. Fear measurements back in March will be completely valued differently than they will now. The market would react differently to certain news now, that it would for example in March.

But the base break is important to see and I'm glad you've noticed it. Ideal conditions for me would be a clean break of the $20 support here, a brief step up in the market for me opening up PUT plays for the bounce back to the DJI 10,500 and the VIX forming a new resistance at around $20.

Now, on the other hand, supposing a July like rally into the new year, this strategy would go to shit. I'm not predicting that kind of rally will happen, but in no way can I control the markets if it does! I can tell you that typically when something consolidates this long in a sideways trend it tends to break either direction hard. Got the betters panties all up in a wad ready to throw their strings.
post #40762 of 136697
12/23/09 at 1:21am
So far so good.
post #40763 of 136697
12/23/09 at 3:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Davecash77 View Post
That GDP number was horrendous !!!

Commerce Department GDP Revision Shows Q3 Was Awful
Posted: December 22, 2009 at 8:45 am

.

The latest number is an increase of 2.2%. A month ago the number was dropped to 2.8% from the government’s original figure of 3.5%.

The data shows that the American economy is barely growing and the the sharp rebound that economists have been describing recently is a mirage.
Consumer activity in the period from July 1 to September 30 was much less robust than expected. It is almost certain that unemployment, which was still rising very rapidly during the quarter, undercut both individual and corporate spending.

The numbers are particularly bad for the federal government which is expecting a sharp move up in GDP in the current quarter and in 2010 to increase tax revenue. That would allow the Treasury to begin to narrow the size of deficits and decrease the growth rate of the national debt. The government’s other efforts to help the economy including the $787 billion stimulus package and programs to slow housing foreclosures has been largely failures up until now.

The new 2.2% number shows that the economy has not responded at all to the stimulus and raises the thorny issue of how bad Q4 GDP will be. Weak consumer spending for the holidays could move growth improvement back to the 1% level.

Douglas A. McIntyre

I think the better question is why should the market be up ?
I'm still new so please feel free to correct me. If GDP increased in Q3 then that would mean that the recession has officially ended for those who gage a recession by 2+ consecutive negative GDP numbers. Am I right on this?

If I am right, then how can a GDP growth even if it didn't meet expectations be "Awful"? Unless it means that its awful because the first estimate was 3.5, 2nd 2.8 & todays as 2.2 & thus is means that it was well below estimates.
post #40764 of 136697
12/23/09 at 3:16am
Quote:
Originally Posted by qu4rk View Post
I'm still new so please feel free to correct me. If GDP increased in Q3 then that would mean that the recession has officially ended for those who gage a recession by 2+ consecutive negative GDP numbers. Am I right on this?

If I am right, then how can a GDP growth even if it didn't meet expectations be "Awful"? Unless it means that its awful because the first estimate was 3.5, 2nd 2.8 & todays as 2.2 & thus is means that it was well below estimates.
You're absolutely correct- The GDP numbers were EXCELLENT compared to last year, which was -6% this time last year.

But, the naysayers will say it's all because of the stimulus- who cares- that was the point.

If we have positive growth in the 4th quarter, the recession is technically over. That certainly doesn't mean everything is rosy.

A recession is judged by subsequent quarters of contraction (negative GDP). That doesn't mean the economy is good, but it's a great improvement. Job growth will take a couple of years to improve- if it all. We've actually been in a recession for the past 2 years +.
post #40765 of 136697
12/23/09 at 3:32am

12-22 pt 1

post #40766 of 136697
12/23/09 at 3:39am
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC View Post
You're absolutely correct- The GDP numbers were EXCELLENT compared to last year, which was -6% this time last year.

But, the naysayers will say it's all because of the stimulus- who cares- that was the point.

If we have positive growth in the 4th quarter, the recession is technically over. That certainly doesn't mean everything is rosy.

A recession is judged by subsequent quarters of contraction (negative GDP). That doesn't mean the economy is good, but it's a great improvement. Job growth will take a couple of years to improve- if it all. We've actually been in a recession for the past 2 years +.
USMC, you're just dead wrong.








Just kidding.
post #40767 of 136697
12/23/09 at 3:39am
Great video, chart, and TA, but my only critique is that it's all in the past.
post #40768 of 136697
12/23/09 at 3:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rossj711 View Post
USMC, you're just dead wrong.








Just kidding.
Until I saw your last comment, I was about to go "off" on you......
post #40769 of 136697
12/23/09 at 3:41am
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC View Post
You're absolutely correct- The GDP numbers were EXCELLENT compared to last year, which was -6% this time last year.

But, the naysayers will say it's all because of the stimulus- who cares- that was the point.

If we have positive growth in the 4th quarter, the recession is technically over. A recession is judged by subsequent quarters of contraction (negative GDP). That doesn't mean the economy is good, but it's a great improvement. Job growth will take a couple of years to improve- if it all.
The problem is the GDP numbers should have been better considering all of the stimulus. Normally you want about 3% growth per year so 2.2% this qtr when everyone was hoping for more and expecting close to 2.8% is pretty bad. Also last year's 3rd qtr GDP was -2.7% not -6%
post #40770 of 136697
12/23/09 at 3:44am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed98 View Post
The problem is the GDP numbers should have been better considering all of the stimulus. Normally you want about 3% growth per year so 2.2% this qtr when everyone was hoping for more and expecting close to 2.8% is pretty bad. Also last year's 3rd qtr GDP was -2.7% not -6%
Maybe, but who knows........ Unfortunately, there's no real "scale or measurement" tool. We don't know. If you add up all the quarters of negative growth and compare that to 3rd quarter, I think it looks encouraging. That doesn't mean we won't implode though. And yes, you're correct about the 3% growth.
post #40771 of 136697
12/23/09 at 3:49am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed98 View Post
The problem is the GDP numbers should have been better considering all of the stimulus. Normally you want about 3% growth per year so 2.2% this qtr when everyone was hoping for more and expecting close to 2.8% is pretty bad. Also last year's 3rd qtr GDP was -2.7% not -6%
I think you're right about the GDP numbers- I may have misquoted; however, there was a -6% quarter during Bush's administration- not blaming him---- I'm researching it now.
post #40772 of 136697
12/23/09 at 4:02am
I was off one (1) quarter: 2009 1st quarter was -6%. The trend is clearly presented

post #40773 of 136697
12/23/09 at 4:02am
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC View Post
Great video, chart, and TA, but my only critique is that it's all in the past.


Um, all charts show you past data, it's the trader's duty to make use of it.
post #40774 of 136697
12/23/09 at 4:02am
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC View Post
If we have positive growth in the 4th quarter, the recession is technically over..
I can't wait for Obama to proclaim that the recession is over... kinda reminds me of when Bush claimed the war was over.
post #40775 of 136697
12/23/09 at 4:04am
Quote:
Originally Posted by simonyadig View Post


Um, all charts show you past data, it's the trader's duty to make use of it.
Simon, it's kinda a joke; I'm poking fun @ T/A.. Truly, charts plot history only, but trends can be assumed of course. I like T/A, but I do think it's over reliable upon and misinterpreted at times.
post #40776 of 136697
12/23/09 at 4:16am
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC View Post
Simon, it's kinda a joke; I'm poking fun @ T/A..
I know, and I'm poking fun at those that can't utilize it properly so they mock it.

j/k......... kinda
post #40777 of 136697
12/23/09 at 4:19am
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC View Post
Until I saw your last comment, I was about to go "off" on you......
Na, we'll leave that up to the trade journals index.
post #40778 of 136697
12/23/09 at 4:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by simonyadig View Post


Um, all charts show you past data, it's the trader's duty to make use of it.
Some of these T/A-ist get fanatical at times.
post #40779 of 136697
12/23/09 at 4:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC View Post
Some of these T/A-ist get fanatical at times.
I know, TA can get a bad name because there are so many people using it with such varying results. All that matters to me is that I make a living from trading, and without charts I wouldn't be able to do that.
post #40780 of 136697
12/23/09 at 4:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by simonyadig View Post
I know, TA can get a bad name because there are so many people using it with such varying results. All that matters to me is that I make a living from trading, and without charts I wouldn't be able to do that.
Not to mention you could not drive that four door, gold color, lady's man, Lincoln yacht you're driving. That boat you're driving is nice.

: rotfl:
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