Looks like we've only got 4 more handles to the upside to go before Goldman Sachs throws in the towel.

 

 

S&P 500 Will End 2012 at 1,250 Amid ‘Stagnant’ Economy, Goldman Sachs Says

Market continues to float on vapors... just a waiting game for some resolution of this standoff

SPY playing out a nice W pattern right now.

Who would have thought gambling on some Dec 129c at $.21 would pay anything....currently at $.75. Its always the small capital bets that pay nicely. Story of my life

LOL ... you mean like when I went really cautiously light on EEE and it blasted from .15 to .44?  Irritating to say the least.

haha! dude its like once a week we joke about this crap. Our conviction is right, but we throw pennies at the play (relatively speaking). Guess its a winner, but damn!

 

I still feel this isn't worth selling at 300%, i want to see if "santa rally" comes before looking at exits.

 

I planned to stay on the sidelines till the start of the new year, but decided last week to take a few contracts home and hold till dec. Just didn't expect the move yesterday. Still sitting out other than these till Jan.

Nothing but negative EU statements flowing out today and we are back to ignore it all mode... shocking. 

Guys the .00 print was mentioned earlier, those plays are super-weak these days, especially in a choppy session. They work only when you are trading in the predominant direction of the market, which cannot be "flat." Also, look at GOOG, MCP and NFLX, all with .00 lows that are IMO very likely to stick through the close. It seems like the days of the .00 working more often than not, or often enough to exploit, are dead and gone, at least for now. Caveat Emptor.

We have had negative statements since Oct. You got your 100 handle move down last week, let us have some fun on the bull side this week! You damn bears always want Spy $0!

 

<--- was wanting Spy $0 in Sept when i was bear mode every day lol

The EUR/USD currency pair made a 3 drive to a bottom and Gartley Buy pattern at 1:10 on a 10 minute chart - that explains the bounce bounce

BAC breaking higher

But as the method we talked about, the GOOG and NFLX .00 today is the LOD and those two are more bullish trending today, so that would be a silly bet anyway. Now if we started tanking or something, those would come into play perhaps.

 

I still think the .00 on the correct direction is still playable, just not as a sure bet like they use to be, so tread lightly

In next week's SPY 124x puts at 1.40. Looking for a big sell off tomorrow. I believe the top of the markets are in for the year. December will be bloody.

Dollars to donuts you're exhibiting hindsight bias here, picking out the play that did work and ignoring the ones that didn't. Hopefully that's not true, and if I am dead wrong you should throw more money at those plays, but just be careful you are not ignoring the plays that didn't pan out and just selectively remembering the winners, it's all too easy and I still have to remind myself about that all the time.

Well in all fairness on my EEE play, I took one look at the weekly chart and saw the support at the previous trend line that was there when the price tanked to .53 by Dec. 2010.  Then I saw on the daily a giant POC where price was and same for the 60min.  There wasn't a doubt in my mind (wish they could all be like that) .... except the voice inside my head that said "Don't go heavy just in case because this market is effin' crazy" .... 

 

But I do know what you're talking about when it comes to hindsight bias.  

 

Exactly right on the bolded, direction of equity and direction of market as a whole MUST match. Add to that market must have a distinct direction, can't play them while market is in chop so you are for sure right about keeping the info handy if we sell hard late.

The only ticker I am interested in considering for the .00 play right now is SPY because I play the options on it regularly, and seeing a .00 print as LOD or HOD several times a month is so much more frequent than it would naturally hold for the day (pure chance = 2% of the time, obviously, but it seems to hold even less as they don't like those round numbers for the extremes).

ES with 3 failures now today at the upper TL of the failed wedge that started the Nov bloodbath. Odds are we either head down nicely from here, or next attempt price will stick above 1248 or so.

 

You obviously do not watch CNBC.

 

Pay closer attention because all the guests are saying there will be a rally!

 

Actually to be fair, the last guest that said that, the host asked them "and then?"

 

So we rally in Dec.. and then?

 

He darted the issue with the standard response: strong US growth, corporate earnings good etc etc.

 

but santa is REAL!

Last night they opend the show with Terranova and Dennis Gartman saying it was a game changer and don't fight the FED we are going to rally right to the end of the year ...WTF..Those guys are fast money traders not investors,they should focus more on technicals than fundamentals..IMO