Stock Market Today - Intraday discussion - Page 6506  

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rock Sexton 

The latter. Five consecutive down days is a 2% occurrence.  There's another book that I have which details the statistical edge after 3 or 5 consecutive down days.  

this trading style/tactic is similar to tom demark's... though his is a bit more complex from what i understand or rather can't understand lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by charulz 

this trading style/tactic is similar to tom demark's... though his is a bit more complex from what i understand or rather can't understand lol

i believe in late october he said market will be a short after 4-6 consecutive green days

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rock Sexton 

For options, are you guys able to differentiate on the open interest as to how much of that number is bought or sold?

you can see to an extent at what price the option was traded, and you make a guess based on the price.. atleast thats how i do it..

for example.. ABC calls are trading at .50x .60.. if you see an order go through at .50, you assume soemone sold it or shorted it

edit: damn.. 3 posts in a row by me.. do you know the odds of me posting 3x in a row?? its happened once in the past 5 years! how do i trade this?

To anyone who was active in the markets during the fall of 2008: Do you remember how often there were 5 consecutive down days?

Backin off the HOD resistance on low volume

When i first began trading i watched Ira Epstiens videos evry day and still do and he would use bolinger bands and always said it  is a matematical fact the you will trade inside the BB 98% opf the time,only 2% will be outside the bolingerbands..He also said the most he ever saw was 5 days in a row where a stock traded outside those bands so what Rock is saying makes sense,,,

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhythmdoctor 

To anyone who was active in the markets during the fall of 2008: Do you remember how often there were 5 consecutive down days?

From ZH

The last time we had 6 consecutive down days was February 13-23, 2009. Which is before March 2009, . Which is when the S&P hit 666. Which is when the Fed started Q1. As for the last time we had 5 down days in a row was in August of 2010, just when the Hindenburg Omen was spotted and threatened to undo the entire Centrally Planned house of cards... Which is when the Fed started QE2. Pattern emerging?

with every consecutive down day, the probability of a green day obviously increases right? How does this play in with percentage decrease. Any research on say, down more than 5% total= good chance of a bounce?

You can have 2 really big down days, or 5 smaller ones that equal the same percentage loss.

I just kinda play it by ear, after 3 moderate days or 2 big days, I'll fade rallys and buy dips.

-1054 tick  trying to knock the little rally off balance

Internals got pushed from pinkish back into red.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanpu 

with every consecutive down day, the probability of a green day obviously increases right? How does this play in with percentage decrease. Any research on say, down more than 5% total= good chance of a bounce?

 

You can have 2 really big down days, or 5 smaller ones that equal the same percentage loss.

 

I just kinda play it by ear, after 3 moderate days or 2 big days, I'll fade rallys and buy dips.

Download "How Markets Really Work" by Laurence A. Connors.  

Aren't the odds in Roullette after drawing 10 red numbers in a row, the same % chance of drawing a red number on the next spin, the same?

This is how folks lose money in that game as well, they see those silly signs showing its hit red a bunch and they keep betting on black and well the odds of the game never changed.

Anyone like VRTX?  30's and 36's were bought up nicely today in calls.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Money Game 

From ZH

 

The last time we had 6 consecutive down days was February 13-23, 2009. Which is before March 2009, . Which is when the S&P hit 666. Which is when the Fed started Q1. As for the last time we had 5 down days in a row was in August of 2010, just when the Hindenburg Omen was spotted and threatened to undo the entire Centrally Planned house of cards... Which is when the Fed started QE2. Pattern emerging?

We shall soon see!

take a look at SPY 1hr thru 4hr charts...

SPY showing pinch setting up....

not sure if it'll take or fail

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rock Sexton 

Anyone like VRTX?  30's and 36's were bought up nicely today in calls.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhythmdoctor 

To anyone who was active in the markets during the fall of 2008: Do you remember how often there were 5 consecutive down days?

I remember this Black Swan pattern from May 2008

WTF is holding up the nasdaq?

The euro..

dam you time warner and your internet problems, you cost me money.

I'm so tired of this wildly/randomly oscillating market... I just want to get into cash so I can stop watching it and enjoy the holidays.  Absolutely impossible to make a high probability trade in this chop.

nice charts
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Money Game 

I remember this Black Swan pattern from May 2008

 

 

 

lol i hope thats not serious.. looks like a duck more than a swan.. funny stuff.

and the 300-400 day swings increase still this year.. i think the count is 88 days.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Money Game 

I remember this Black Swan pattern from May 2008