Quote:
Originally Posted by
mjoke 
i think it will be portgual 1st then italy.... then Credit downgrades for France ..
in regards to Italy its the aspect of contagion on the bond yields.. where as portgual is in dire straights.. if you have ever been there. 50%+ unemployment and the infrastructure and personal homes are falling apart due to the age, they need massive investments. i have family in greece, portgual, france and they all are arguing whos country is more messed up.
The price to stay in the euro is too high. Annexation will occur.
If this just sits until december and we get a mild lower drift lower then i can see the 50ma crossing the 200 on the SP chart in4 to 7 weeks and if it does to the downside im referring too here, all bets on determining support levels are off. majors will be the only applicable levels which is 1070-950 850 etc.. Or we can just declare default on some countries and have a sharper spike down than a gradual melt. or in the positive aspect where they do give them the next aid package, we are range bound until these EU concerns are delt with.
hi mjoke,
first its portugal not portgual!
if it will be first or second I dont know, but I agree its messy here...as it is in Spain and elsewhere in south europe
portugal beeing in dire straits I dont know that expression, just mark knoffler's band...can you explain what does it means?
about beeing there, I´ve been here all my life but i never found +50% unemployment! to be honest real numbers should be between 12.5-15.0% now, even if official numbers are lower
the problem here is quite common with the rest of europe, however with some nuances; when the 2008 crisis begun hit harder the weekest ones, like the flew in a group...takes first the illest ones...
most part of europe nations passed from economys supported by primary/secundary sector to therdiary (services) sector, when companies started dislocating their infrastructures first to eastern countries (polland, romania, bulgary, ex-soviet union countries), later to asia, latin america, etc
some countries (northern countries) reacted fast and did change their economies for service sectors, however promoting companies with real added-value (software, engineering, consultancy, etc); typical examples are scandinavian countries; southern countries on the other way choosen the easy way: promote civil construction (new buildings) and commerce (basically new shopping centers, gigantic supermarkets, wall-mart type); this type of economy as the oposite of the previous one does not promote be grouwth, skilled people, inteligence...and is strogly dependent of people with money on their pocket; people (middle class) were dependent on short-term loans from finantial intitutions for trips, clothes, etc, a medium-term loans from banks to buy houses...
so resuming you have a economy based in 3th sector (1st+2nd sectors are < 20% economy), with little added value, suported by finantial institucions who no longer are able to keep borrowing...
the portuguese nuances: close 25% people work directly for the state; population age average is becoming quite high beeing the state responsible for paying their retirement plans of the older ones; a new generation with the highest ever qualification (formation) that does not fit in the market and is flying away; to give you an idea close to 80% of govern anual budgect is due to 3 things: pensions, wages (personnel), plus debt interest cost (wich is around 110% of GDP)
spain, greece, south france, italy its all the same history, same problems, some with different names, and diferent extention is each case
