Hows about yous give us the inside scoop from inside Italy? Seeing as how you're intimate with them right now and all... ?
Stock Market Today - Intraday discussion - Page 6324
Economically its not good here.Hard to judge from where I`m at though.I think you would have to go to the bigger cities to get an accurate gauge.The people where I`m at don`t have much and they like it that way.I could see some problems over here from a financial standpoint though.There seems to be the very wealthy and the poor.Not much in between though.Kinda like home I guess.
It seems like this whole Euro-zone is going to collapse on itself. I'm hoping the markets go up tomorrow again.
We will have to wait until Dec. 4-5 for the referendum to take place according to the following article. When is the G-20 meet?
A side thought: does anybody know any good places to look for charts (example: finviz) It cost $300 a year for it.
i think it will be portgual 1st then italy.... then Credit downgrades for France ..
in regards to Italy its the aspect of contagion on the bond yields.. where as portgual is in dire straights.. if you have ever been there. 50%+ unemployment and the infrastructure and personal homes are falling apart due to the age, they need massive investments. i have family in greece, portgual, france and they all are arguing whos country is more messed up.
The price to stay in the euro is too high. Annexation will occur.
If this just sits until december and we get a mild lower drift lower then i can see the 50ma crossing the 200 on the SP chart in4 to 7 weeks and if it does to the downside im referring too here, all bets on determining support levels are off. majors will be the only applicable levels which is 1070-950 850 etc.. Or we can just declare default on some countries and have a sharper spike down than a gradual melt. or in the positive aspect where they do give them the next aid package, we are range bound until these EU concerns are delt with.
Edited by mjoke - 11/3/11 at 1:35am
That's precisely why EW does not make sense to me as a reliable tool, too much constant adjusting and inherent inaccuracy, seems like a race car garage crew. I like simple ABC moves and that's about it. If we've put in a swing high in upper 1230s, I know 1155 or so is the bearish target. 1236 was weekly S1, so no big surprise to see failure just above, just like there was a nice hold at POC around 1225 a few times today.
For those who are expecting an imminent flush, and I'm not sold on the idea yet, a few levels to watch on ES are tomorrow's S1 1221, S2 1207.50 which would seem to be a big level, and S3 all the way at 1185.25. Weekly S2 is 1190. For the minis, except NQ there are H&S in play on each, with necklines potentially under attack overnight. I'll respect strength above Thursday's pivot of 1229.75. There are 38.2% retracements not too far below current levels. Most of it is pretty simple on the charts, right now the hard part of the game is managing headline risk and being nimble enough to dodge algos that work against you.
One good tell could be strong gold in the face of weak silver/crude, that should be a risk off tell. At the moment we have gold flat with silver and crude down a little bit. Currencies have not been pushing equities around as much in the last few sessions at least not IMO, it will be interesting to see if that correlation strengthens in coming days. Also the lack of four digit TICK readings early in the day today and Monday along with big TRIN readings is a conflict that is quite interesting, along with Monday being such a sneaky selloff until it became blatantly obvious late afternoon, something is up, it's like big money is trying to move things as stealthily as possible. But there has to be more to it than just that.
Studying your chart here and trying to piece together a scenario that would fit that pattern... and Im having a tough time doing it.
Lets see Greece is stalling here, more nonsense for a few days, then your B marks the point where Greece says "Ok! We agree to all terms!" Market rejoices, we rally hard.
But is the market stupid enough to go to new highs knowing that Italy is next?
instead of new high we could set a double top at 130
and thanks Rhythmdoctor for your view.
according to your chart the end of this move down is at 1170?
Just looking at the SP500 on a 6 month chart and to the half blind semi-senile untrained eye it looks a lot like we are in the process of forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders !
On the 6 month chart I have the left shoulder starting to rise on the 2o th oct and the completion of left shoulder on 25 th oct, head starts to rise on 25th and 27/28 th oct forms top. Right shoulder starts to rise on nov 01. Hmm being down tomorrow seriously upsets my pattern. Soooo we need to buck the trend and go up tomorrow then thats fits the politics of the w/e and a monday flush down.
This chart stuff .. highly over rated..
No Nate ! I change my mind as the market changes ! Just right now it suits me for the market to go down so I can get my money purchase pension back in as its in cash now. Also I'm in cash now for trading purposes I will be bullish when the market goes down properly, whenever that is. Make no mistake should it all go down, yep I'll miss the boat and get caught out and a few here will make 10 20 or 30 k but it will be dreadful for everyone with jobs going, houses down and more woes.
Also its different now so may not happen in a whoosh ! Its different as the software driving all this crap (the algo muppets) have changed even over the last 6 months. (research it - i did) social media and awareness are different also. Look at how many new retail (you and me) traders there are now ! How oftern do you see adverts like ameritrade and trade architect blah blah blah on telly?
I'm getting a shopping list together and suggest you do the same! I want EOG or APA, and JOY G so far and still looking for more. (PM me please, also want dividends you hipsters and analysts)
I want to put my William J O' Neil book to good use and can't wait. Look at it as a chance to get a start, a discount on stocks and re- invest the divi's.
DID YOU KNOW that if you put your money in the stock market in late oct (say 22 ish) and take it out on may 2 (ish, very early anyway) its the best way to make money - proven over 30 years.
(got that off BNN)
its a bearish rally .. which doesnt make it a true bull enviroment. It can be applied for the entire 2 years if you really want to get cynical about it. if you break it up into section then it can be bullish within ranges and bearish in others. but either way some just see the entire pie as a bearish rally..
Nicolas Sarkozy tells Greece: If you don't stick to the rules, leave the eurozone. (what should of been done at the start jmo)
The break-up of the eurozone has been dramatically placed in the hands of the Greek people as George Papandreou announced that a referendum on the Hellenic Republic’s membership will be held on December 4.
The Greek prime minister announced the decision in Cannes after Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy gave him an ultimatum that Greece had to “abide by the rules” of the Brussels bail-out agreement – “or leave the eurozone”.
Mr Papandreou said that that “being part of the eurozone means having many rights and also obligations”. He said that the debt crisis deal agreed in Brussels a week ago would be “difficult” for Greece and while he “hoped for a yes vote” he wanted the “Greek people to speak”.
He added: "I believe in benefits for growth, lowering our burden of debt, a strong package of support for the next few years. We can put our house in order and make a viable economy. It is important that the Greek people make decisions on important developments. They are, I believe, mature and wise enough to make this decision.
"We're very proud to be part of the eurozone. But this comes with obligations and it is crucial we show the world we can live up to those obligations.
"We could hold the referndum on December 4. A positive decision by the Greek people is not only positive for Greece but for Europe. The Greek people want us to be in eurozone - I want them to speak and they will speak soon>"
Mr Sarkozy said that European leaders were powerless to stop Greece holding a referendum but he said the bail-out agreement was conditional “according to certain rules”. He said it was “up to them whether they accept the rules or not”.
MS Merkel added that they would "not not abandon the principles of democracy. We cannot put at stake the great work of the unification of the euro."
"The referendum is a question of whether Greece wants to be in eurozone with the euro currency - that is the issue," she said.
The German Chancellor and French President, who summoned Mr Papandreou to crisis talks ahead of the G20 meeting in Cannes that starts on Thursday, to tell him that the debt restructuring and austerity measures agreed a week ago were not negotiable. The leaders threatened to withhold €8bn (£6.9bn) of international aid from Greece until Athens accepted the terms.
Mr Papandreou’s refusal to bow to their pressure is likely to rattled global markets.
Hours before the Cannes talks, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was forced to pull an auction to raise €3bn of debt because investors felt uncertain about the terms. It was an inauspicious start for the vital bail-out fund which is supposed to be capable of raising up to €1trillion.
The Italian cabinet held an emergency meeting in a bid to agree economic reforms which Silvio Berlusconi promised as part of the Brussels deal. As the cost of insuring Italian debt against default remained at record highs of 6.1pc, Giorgio Napolitano, the Italian president, appeared to threatened to bring down the government if the reforms were not agreed. Ignazio Visco, the new head of the Bank of Italy, urged Mr Berlusconi to mee the demands. He said it was “necessary to proceed resolutely” in order to achieve “the lasting reduction of sovereign risk and preserve the stability of the financial system”.
Mr Sarkozy had a “working dinner” in Cannes with President Hu Jintao as part of his on-going efforts to attract Chinese investment in eurozone debt.
Meanwhile, rumours swept the markets that France could lose its AAA credit rating after economic data revealed that the eurozone economies are stagnating.
The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for October fell to 47.1 down from 48.5 in September, where any number below 50 shows contraction. Standard & Poor’s recently warned it would cut France’s rating by up to two notches if there is a recession in the eurozone. France’s data, at 48.5, was better than that of Greece, Italy and Spain and not far behind Germany. But the spread between French sovereign bonds and German bunds soared to it widest point since the euro was launched amid fears of a downgrade - which in turn could de-rail the terms of European rescue agreements.
Even so global stockmarkets were calmer following the rout on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 clawed up 0.9pc, in Germany the DAX gained 2.3pc, in France the CAC rose 1.4pc and in London the FTSE 100 added 1.2pc.
There were more dire warnings that a Greek referendum, expected in December, could trigger the break-up of the eurozone. Mr Papandreou faces a vote of confidence on Thursday. But traders were appeased by assurances from leaders that prolonged uncertainty would not be tolerated.
Francois Fillon, the French prime minister, said: “Europe cannot be kept waiting for weeks for the outcome of the referendum. The Greeks must say, rapidly and unambiguously, whether or not they will choose to remain in the eurozone.”
well this now has progressed into a political split in Greece and the PM of the ruling socialist party has resigned. The FM is demanding the referendum be pulled.
There are reports now that Germany is drafting a default plan in order to protect the euro, either by Greece leaving or is annexed and that the cost for them to stay outweighs the benefit basically.
""The euro zone is working on ways to make sure its members are not damaged if Greece were to leave the currency union, Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker told German television on Thursday. Juncker said he wanted Greece to stay in the euro zone, but it could not be at any price. Asked what would happen to German taxpayers if Greece were to leave the euro zone, Juncker told ZDF Morgenmagazin: "We are working on the subject of how to ensure there is not a disaster for the people in Germany, Luxembourg, the euro zone. We are absolutely prepared for the situation."
frankly i always thought this was all just a ploy to buy time, and attempt to qwell the markets while this is done in the back room.
Greece will be cut adrift if bail-out is refused, says EU
Greece last night faced the threat of bankruptcy within weeks after the EU said it would not provide any more funding to the beleaguered country unless it agreed to support the euro bail-out.
At a press conference Mr Sarkozy said: "Our Greek friends must decide whether they want to continue the journey with us.
"We cannot commit European taxpayers' money unless the rules unanimously adopted in Brussels are respected to the letter."
He was flanked by Mrs Merkel, who added: "The referendum will revolve around nothing less than the question: does Greece want to stay in the euro, yes or no?"
David Cameron said that the world was facing a "financial storm" as Greece may now be forced out of the single currency.
Simon Johnson, the former chief economist at the IMF said Europe was "looking straight into the face of a great depression".
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said that Britain had a 70 per cent chance of falling back into recession under the "increasingly more likely" scenario that the euro crisis will not be resolved imminently.
The Prime Minister will travel today to the G20 summit but is expected to be little more than a bystander as key meetings take place between European and American leaders.
The British government has refused to contribute money to help the euro but European leaders are expected to lobby the Chinese, Russians and Brazilians for loans. An EU diplomat claimed last night that European leaders thought they had been misled by the Greek prime minister – as he had used the threat of a referendum during a eurozone summit last week in order to win concessions.
"Everyone thought the threat had been dropped. Only one way to describe this: 'absolute bloody fury'," said the diplomat.
"If it wasn't a case of mutually assured destruction this would be the moment that it is game over for Greece."
With Greek national opinion currently against perceived European interference in its affairs, the country could be forced out of the single currency in a disorderly and chaotic manner. The removal of EU support comes as Greek politicians begin discussions on whether to vote in favour of a no–confidence motion in Mr Papandreou, which could trigger the government's collapse.
European leaders are hoping that, by increasing dramatically the pressure on Greece, politicians may demand that the referendum is scrapped.
An IMF source said: "The [IMF] board would not want to give money to Greece and then wonder what will happen. The board will want comfort that Greece will fulfil its commitments and right now Papandreou is unable to give that."
There are mounting fears that the Greek crisis will fatally undermine Italy's economy in the coming days.
Edited by mjoke - 11/3/11 at 4:40am
Thanks Mjoke for the posts. It seems things are playing out as expected. It looks like the Euro leaders are working in the background to get ridoff Greece PM on Friday. I think that explains this dramatic recovery in futures overnight.
All the longs should see this as a golden opportunity to exit and enter into short positions before things change again. Papanndreou may win the confidence or who knows what, he may even stay in power declaring some kind of emergency using military help..see this..
"at the time when the Pasok government is collapsing, it is proceeding with ... changes in the leadership of the country's armed forces". He said that his party would not accept the decisions.
If you are short then stay put on whether he can win the confidence or not tomorrow but I think this is a lose-lose situation. If he wins it is a very bad news and if he loses then it is a bad news...lol..
I would be very careful going long in the next couple of weeks. I think, It is more likely that we would see 114 on SPY cash before seeing 130. Call it what you want i.e. an alien prediction..
I know someone is going to ask me to explain this statement, so here it is:
Fed did not gave any real idea of QE3, so that's off the table for now. That slimy Greece PM would probably manage to win the confidence in parliament on Friday, which is kind of bad news for the markets because the referendum on Dec' 4th is on if he is able to win the confidence. So, the markets gonna drop tomorrow and Friday big time. There may be small bounces but we will be in downtrend till Dec' 4th. Also, Greece may even default before that. If there is a referendum, we all know that people wont accept those bailout terms and vote NO. That will cause another big drop. I believe this is the most likely scenario and it may bring SPY between 105 and 114 in next 4 to 5 weeks.
We have only 2 days to escape this scenario by removing Greece PM on Friday so that referendum is off at least. Even then, because of new elections in Greece and confusion over leadership would still lead to a drop but it may not be as severe.
Edited by Philosuffer - 11/3/11 at 5:54am
If there is a gap up due to G20 etc, exit longs and enter shorts... I feel the same...
Italy yields are 6.32 .. and greece uncertainity is creating more problem for Italy....
I expect a gap up of +100 to form the right shoulder... and then boom we fall ...
Edited by ultra_knight - 11/3/11 at 6:17am