Stock Market Today - Intraday discussion - Page 6189  

I'll be gobbling SPY 123 calls up in the morning, and grabbing puts once we reach that level.

Haven't read through the thread too much lately, but is everyone seeing the ascending triangle continuation pattern like I am?

If we play this pattern out, I can see the upside momentum getting slapped down with selling around 123, and falling back down to 121 range before busting a fat move to the upside.

Which I would imagine, in a fairy tale, would look something like this:

Bad thing about a wedge is that it can break out either direction.....better to play intra day micro swings till the market decides which way it's gonna go.

Of course, once it breaks out, it could also be a fakeout.

Do I sound suspicious of any movement?

I think there's more market manipulation going on in this time period than any other time I've followed the markets.

It's almost as if the big boards are taking a lesson from the penny stocks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhythmdoctor 

I'll reiterate my view since I feel I have my pulse on it at the moment - and btw, I haven't traded in over a week and I won't touch this choppiness. 

 

My view:

I'm long term (several years) bearish and short-term (month or 2) bullish.  The market is going to drag this bear market rally out for at least another month, probably 2 months.  However, I think the next immediate move within this bear rally is down.  So if we finally do sell-off tomorrow or early next week, I'd look for a bounce off the 1160-1175 range (ES).  The subsequent and several week bounce to new recent highs will be a painful (choppy and slow) grind up through 1260 probably to the 1280-1300 area.  The reason I think we get through 1260 is because it seems that everyone has that 1260 as a level and for the market to really haul in all the suckers, we need to get definitively past that level.  I would not be surprised if we rallied to 1320ish although I won't hold my breath for that print.  Whenever this counter-trend rally ends, the next wave down is going to be a face-ripper.  And that's the opportunity I'm waiting to trade.  I'm not going to let my account get nibbled at in this chop when there are bigger fish to fry.  I'm going to exhibit patience and wait for a shorting opp once we get past 1260.  Best of luck to all and stay safe in this chop!

great post as always, rd! my thoughts exactly. although i'm thinking this bear rally lasts at least 3 months... my bull costume comes off in feb. where i will be 100% bearish on equities again. as i said a few times before, i don't think we get up to the old highs anytime soon (many years). the highest i see this bear rally taking us is 1340. i could see us printing that a couple of days after the new year... once we get past q4 earnings, that's when i think the wheels will start falling apart. if you guys thought aug/sept was bad just wait 'till you see what februrary/march has in store for y'all! the selloff will be absolutely relentless, and there will be no dead crap bounce like we saw in oct. i'm looking for de javu 2008 (if not much worse) all over again. and i won't be looking for any real bottom until about 2015-2016 (where i believe we will have smashed through the march '09 lows) of course this is all jmho. so we'll see what happens.

i'll enjoy this bear rally into year end. this is the last hurrah for the bulls. after we get through these next 3 months, it will be all downhill from there. glta.

Bigbear and Rhythmdoctor: Sorry I haven't kept up with you - what is the reason you are expecting a major collapse early next year? (besides the 2012 Mayan "end of the world" scenario)

Wow just woke up to see futures rockin' at 1221, so so glad I closed my positions yesterday this market is too choppy to hold longer than a day or two.  Implied volatility for today's range is 26 handles, meaning that if we open in this neighborhood of 1220, we could break the 1230 resistance and tack on 16 more handles for good measure.  I'm not saying that is going to happen, but it is a possibility.  We could also touch 1230 and then plunge 26 handles or more to the lower 1200s.  

btw, this is my projected dji chart for the next 3-5 years. i had created a similar chart a while back and even posted it on here, but for whatever the reason i can't find it. so, here is a new one. this is exactly what i am thinking the dji will look like in the next couple of years... lemme know what y'all think. notice the santa rally back above 12k to end this year. and then the real $hitstorm begins.

Last 3 fridays have been pretty boring after around 11:00. Hopefuly, we get some movement today.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluestaq 

Wow just woke up to see futures rockin' at 1221, so so glad I closed my positions yesterday this market is too choppy to hold longer than a day or two.  Implied volatility for today's range is 26 handles, meaning that if we open in this neighborhood of 1220, we could break the 1230 resistance and tack on 16 more handles for good measure.  I'm not saying that is going to happen, but it is a possibility.  We could also touch 1230 and then plunge 26 handles or more to the lower 1200s.  

.. time for coffee.. gonna be a fun day.

bigbear, I havn't read your previous posts as to why your bearish till' 2015, can you briefly explain?

From my understanding, we should see high inflation in the coming years because of the FED's easy money policy - there is a positive correlation between equities, commodities and inflationary periods. At the moment, Banks are hoarding their cash reserves but when prepared to lend to consumers, their dispersment will flood the market with an increased supply of cash devaluing the USD. From this concept alone I feel will be a bullish scenario for equities. Are you implying deflation will precede high inflation? If so, why?

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigbear83 

btw, this is my projected dji chart for the next 3-5 years. i had created a similar chart a while back and even posted it on here, but for whatever the reason i can't find it. so, here is a new one. this is exactly what i am thinking the dji will look like in the next couple of years... lemme know what y'all think. notice the santa rally back above 12k to end this year. and then the real $hitstorm begins.

 

THE WORLD IS SUPPOSE TO END TODAY!!!   by some doomsday profit who was wrong eariler this year and today was his 2nd date.

5th test of 200ema i think ...puffff

Massive volatility in currencies...

get your trades in quick.. today is end of world.. 10/21/2011

edit: didn't see mjokes post.. sorry for reposting... but its pretty big deal...

weatherbill?

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjoke 

THE WORLD IS SUPPOSE TO END TODAY!!!   by some doomsday profit who was wrong eariler this year and today was his 2nd date.

LOL dam what ever happened to bill?!

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldFart 

weatherbill?

 

 

Don't know...after he was wrong, he posted a youtube vid apologizing, and then he vanished. He was a decent trader from what I remember though.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjoke 

LOL dam what ever happened to bill?!

 

 

he will be back once 2012 arrives i think.... dum da dum dum

probably lol

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjoke 

he will be back once 2012 arrives i think.... dum da dum dum

The sad part is that many people believed him
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjoke 

THE WORLD IS SUPPOSE TO END TODAY!!!   by some doomsday profit who was wrong eariler this year and today was his 2nd date.

if you preach it,... they will come.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerThirty 

The sad part is that many people believed him 

 

I want to know what happened to DOW JONES.