Stock Market Today - Intraday discussion - Page 5674  

While it is entirely possible you are totally right, the main reason I am still somewhat dubious of going back to those levels is that back then, the problems were born of extreme complacency and bad policy, and thus the downside got away from everyone really quickly. Here we are now with two rounds of QE behind us, and POMO activities that are ongoing with no discussion of that fact, and countless other programs, nations, you name it defending nominal market valuations. Prechter has made some good calls, but calling for new nominal lows beyond 2009 lows is really sticking a neck way out there. Today I'd argue that S&P 666 in March 2009 terms is probably worth about S&P 750 in today's terms, meaning if we went below something like 750, in terms of real value, we'd already be at those lows. Assuming the can can be kicked down the road for another 1-2 years, and inflation does eventually creep in to the picture if all that money gets in circulation, there might be no chance of revisiting those levels in nominal terms. 1200 today is probably 1100 in March 2009. 1077 last month might be about 1010 in Summer 2010, etc. Even if 20,000 is really only 10,000, people sure feel a lot better about the bigger number, at least when it's the Dow.

ED: This post is not meant to suggest the US is exercising sound fiscal policy. All rights reserved, LOL.

 

WOOT. 

 

Mess with the bulls and you get the horns! 

 

check

Thanks Rando, got it. Essentially we dont have to do anything since it is baked into the premiums already. One may need to understand it more if they plan to hold them into Friday evening or exercise them.

 

Darn, Euro is tanking good and yet S&P is going up...its like how it rallied decoupling from bonds and macro economic conditions...

Just algos hellbent on taking it higher and we talk about all logic

 

 

 

My problem with us heading back down there are valuations of the companies. Earnings aren't doing bad. If we were to go back down that low could you imagine how undervalued a lot of stocks would be? Especially banks. I mean, they've already taken a bad beating this year. BAC fell to just over $6 recently...if we go back down to DOW 6-7k it'll be a sub penny stock by then

 

Well... they just lifted the forclosure hold so we will soon see BAC balance sheet go to hell real fast once the next leg of horrible loans hits the books.  I would be so quick to say that companies valuations are rock solid because a lot of them will dropping off and just because we can meet lower guidance quarter after quarter doesn't mean things are in good shape.  Besides a few big guns like AAPL I think we see come companies looking weak as the months go by... the jobless numbers are getting worse and the reality is that companies are cutting back.  GS just lowered the end of year S&P target from 1400 to 1250... that's a pretty good drop off and I can definitely see it the S&P take one more leg down into the 1020-1050 range where I can see the market possibly begin to make a solid footing. 

 

 

Hey guys, I haven't had a change to log on lately..Iv been so tired.

How do you guys get your news? Like upgrades and downgrades.

I'm looking to get into some options pretty soon but I want to limit my risk to like $500 just to start out.

We are going to see 1140 by Friday's close.  Who's with me?

Ill take 1220. I think we stay in the channel. Decent gain today despite late selloff, and we are channeling nicely following a nice hammer 2 days ago on the 12th

Quote:

 

Are you talking about S & P 500?

Yes.  SPX.  We are within channel on the 30 min chart with top being 1200 and bottom being 1140 with trix divergence.

 

I see what you're looking at. Im looking mostly at daily. But look at the hourly chart. We are sitting on top of the major moving averages. Doesnt look like weve been there sinse late july, unless Im looking at that wrong.

yay! the best day ever today... besides all the rally nonsense, the icing is.. the IRS sent me a notice saying i owe them more money.
Wierd thing is, it has trades listed from that year 09, but i assume they are on my report by my broker that they send. Just blame it on my CPA.

 

 

Edited by mjoke - 9/15/11 at 1:57am

Sounds like UBS swiss bank had 2 billion dollars worth of unauthorized trades. 

Sorry to hear that Mjoke I too had a pretty rough day and futures seems to be back to rallying..We need seriously bad economic data to see any downside today..If the reports give a surprise lean towards bearish side, I will hang on..If they are inline with expectations, I will exit at the dip on the open...

 

Four of the reports will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, opening a potentially volatile period depending on the results.

The Consumer Price Index will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The report comes in two forms: the so-called heading number includes food and energy, while the "core" number excludes those categories.

 

The headline number is expected to show a monthly gain of 0.2 percent, from a range of estimates between a bullish -0.2 percent and a more inflationary 0.4 percent at the high. The core number is also expected to show a monthly change of 0.3 percent, from estimates ranging between a disinflationary gain of 0.1 percent to a more inflationary 0.3 percent. (bunch of jokers, put a range from -0.1 to 0.3 and top of the range is the consensus)

 

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey data also comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for a drop to -4, but this is a notoriously volatile number with a wide range of estimates. This time the range is from a more bearish -15 to a bullish gain of 1. A number that exceeds either end of the range will produce a strong market response.

 

Jobless Claims will be out at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus forecast calls for a decrease to 410,000 claims, down from last week's 414,000. Estimates range from a more bullish 400,000 to a bearish 434,000. A drop below the psychologically important 400,000 level would be quite bullish, while a number at or above 450,000 would be equally bearish.

The Current Account data, measuring U.S. trade balance, is the last report to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Most economists expect the gap to widen to -$122.5 billion, though estimates range from a bearish -$188.4 billion to a relatively bullish -$105 billion.

 

Industrial Production comes out at 9:15 a.m. ET. The consensus calls for a gain of 0.1 percent. Estimates range from a bearish -0.4 percent to a bullish 0.3 percent.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey is the last report of the morning, coming out at 10 a.m. ET. Last month's number showed a very large drop to -30.7, but most economists expect the number to come in this time at -15.

 

That would still indicate contraction but would be seen as a big improvement. The range is from a bearish -25 to a very bullish -2. If the number breaks either end of the range, it would produce a strong reaction in the markets. If the number is weaker than -30.7, it would be a very negative surprise because it is not seen in any of the forecasts.

The SEMI book-to-bill ratio for the semiconductor industry comes out after the close at 6 p.m. ET and will likely impact after-hours trading in the group and tomorrow morning.

Yeah some spec they longed CHF with serious leverage before SNB took it down with their 1.20 Euro peg. Regardless, what's most odd is they say they can't locate the trade... odd because in this day and age there is an extensive audit trail to find even the small trades. Maybe odd isn't the right word.... shockingly unsurprising?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/15/677926/ubs-rogue-trader-alert/

I think this is about right, after the overnight test of yesterday's market-wide breakout levels (referencing the ES level) and Nasdaq futures up a healthy amount, those economic numbers are possibly the only thing in the way of another bullish day session. That was my thought as soon as I woke up and saw the overnight test had held.

A whole lot of data today as Philo has pointed out already.. so far Asian and European data is above expectations for a change (so we should crash hard, right?! jk ).

For convenience sake here's a table for those interested;

 

 

 

Date	Time (CET)	Economic Indicator	Contributor	Actual	GV3 Text	Forecast	Previous
15.09.2011	01:30:00	JP Reuters Tankan DI	Sep	8			6
15.09.2011	01:50:00	JP Foreign bond investment	w/e	-468.4	bln		1176
15.09.2011	01:50:00	JP Foreign invest JP stock	w/e	-588.9	bln		-87.7
15.09.2011	09:15:00	CH Industrial orders yy	Q2	2.6	%	2.5	4.4
15.09.2011	09:30:00	CH 3M target LIBOR rate	Q3	0	%	0	0
15.09.2011	10:00:00	IT Consumer prices final mm	Aug	0.3	%	0.3	0.3
15.09.2011	10:00:00	IT Consumer prices final yy	Aug	2.8	%	2.8	2.8
15.09.2011	10:00:00	IT CPI (EU-norm) final mm	Aug	0.4	%	0.3	0.3
15.09.2011	10:00:00	IT CPI (EU norm) final yy	Aug	2.3	%	2.2	2.2
15.09.2011	10:30:00	GB Retail Sales Ex Fuel mm	Aug	-0.1	%	-0.2	0.2
15.09.2011	10:30:00	GB Retail Sales Ex Fuel yy	Aug	-0.1	%	-0.3	-0.2
15.09.2011	10:30:00	GB Retail sales mm	Aug	-0.2	%	-0.3	0.2
15.09.2011	10:30:00	GB Retail sales yy	Aug	0	%	-0.1	0
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Employment yy	Q2	0.4	%		0.1
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Employment qq	Q2	0.3	%		0
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Inflation, final mm	Aug	0.2	%	0.2	-0.6
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Inflation, final yy	Aug	2.5	%	2.5	2.5
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Infl ex food & energy mm	Aug	0.3	%	0.3	-0.8
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Infl ex food & energy yy	Aug	1.5	%	1.3	1.5
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Inflation ex-tobacco mm	Aug	0.2	%		-0.6
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Inflation, ex-tobacco yy	Aug	2.5	%		2.5
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Infl exEnerFoodAlcTob mm	Aug	0.3	%		-1
15.09.2011	11:00:00	EZ Infl exEnerFoodAlcTob yy	Aug	1.2	%		1.2
15.09.2011	14:30:00	CA Manufacturing sales mm	Jul		%	1.3	-1.5
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US CPI mm, sa	Aug		%	0.2	0.5
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US Core CPI mm, sa	Aug		%	0.2	0.2
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US CPI yy, nsa	Aug		%	3.6	3.6
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US Core CPI yy, nsa	Aug		%	1.9	1.8
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US CPI index, nsa	Aug			226.24	225.92
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US Core CPI index, sa	Aug				225.463
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US Real weekly earnings mm	Aug		%	-0.1	-0.1
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US Current account	Q2		bln	-122.5	-119.3
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US NY Fed manufacturing	Sep			-4	-7.72
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US Initial jobless claims	w/e		k	410	414
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US Jobless claims 4-wk avg	w/e		k		414.75
15.09.2011	14:30:00	US Continued jobless claims	w/e		mln	3.71	3.717
15.09.2011	15:15:00	US Capacity utilization mm	Aug		%	77.5	77.5
15.09.2011	15:15:00	US Industrial output mm	Aug		%	0.1	0.9
15.09.2011	16:00:00	US Phil Fed business index	Sep			-15	-30.7
15.09.2011	17:30:00	US Cleveland Fed CPI	Aug		%		0.2

 

ES 1199.75 is last swing high on the 4 hr chart, and would break a string of a few lower lows. Yesterday's insane rally fell short, in part due to ES struggling to maintain a dizzying pace but also the break of the descending trend line for this correction may have contributed to some profit taking and/or exhaustion for the bulls. If today ends up being a solidly bullish day, it should lead to a break of 1196.25 (yday high) and a pretty confident run through 1200, possibly in one swift move. Don't be caught on the wrong side of that trade, I could see that area being a bit of a vacuum. On the downside, if jobs/other news take ES under 1183-1185, a break of 1181 and a decent band of volume that ends there could lead to a quick move down to 1170. That's another area where we could see a fast move, i.e. through the 70s.

NFLX getting a crowbar to the jewels in premarket. Holy downside subscriber guidance damage, Batman!