looks like tomorrow could be the break down to 1300 and below. Euro on the move, USD of course, and we have some important earnings which can accelerate the decline.
Futs are down 9pts - 1305
Europe is not even trading yet, how can u judge so soon
China has horrible inflation.... of course their citizens are buying the most gold in the world. Chinese citizens aren't protecting themselves from $ losing value (if they wanted to do that they would just keep their yuan).
Gold has no consumption value and I would have to see the numbers for China and how there citizens are buying up all the gold. If the government is doing this they are getting ready to make the Yuan the world reserve currency in the future (Bumping out dollar). Make way maybe yuan per barrel of oil in future worldwide.
Yeah thats going to be us soon. Thats bad for the billion plus people there but great buisness profit. Then you have Ireland in deflation and buisnesses are moving away while citizens get commoditys for dirt cheap. Keep in mind Ireland has 13.5% unemployment so its not that good.
i smell it.. fear is not fully priced in... also doesnt matter if EU inst open yet, the currency and US futs are.
I think it wants to fall into this mini wedge and get pressed up against 1300-02ish.. which is a support and all and ends on 7/25ish. or could make this larger one relevant which bottom at 1280 and ends by 8-6ish 1 week of august.. so market could make a decision this week or wait until then..other indicators are rolling and trending in the short term.., we will see how earnings play out.. which is mixed at best.
Here`s my take on what lies ahead: The gov. will drag their feet with this debt ceiling crap and bring fear into the markets.Retail sheep will panic and start selling.Once they have an ugly picture painted retail investors will short.An 11th hour deal will be stuck (after trading hours of course) and the late to the game shorters will get whacked...again.During this whole process the big connected investors will short,cover,buy long and wait for the "miracle" deal to be announced.(after hours,again) How many times does the same crap have to repeat its self.Of course this is JMO so take it for what its worth.Don`t be surprised if the big sell-off starts tommorrow.There will be fear spreaders on every financial channel as well as internet and printed media.Catch the wave and tag along for a bumpy ride.
Here`s my take on what lies ahead:
Everything goes UP;. Not because of inflation or manipulation.. its all economically reflected and valid. 
the End.
fixed it :) the short version. just joking ..
anyone have charts?
i do... but ill refrain from posting them, as i have a billion and one lines on them.
anyone have charts?
I dont share my charts with my competition anymore. I just like to give out numbers but I may change my mind soon.
ur words of wisdom are enough, please no charts. Then we will have a quadrillion..
And heres your version: Everything is gonna crash.Market is over valued.Italy is gonna fall.It can`t go much higher.The end is near.Every post you make is about a big correction.Problem is you been saying for over a year now.I guess eventually you will be right.I`ve been saying a slow grind up since 8K and where are we now? You can`t argue that.keep posting about the big correction.Did`nt you just say 1170 not long ago??? Only to have the markets grind up.....again.
fixed it :) the short version. just joking ..
wow......i was saying that as a joke, not as an attack but ok..
SO i guess you forget when you asked me where i see the market going 2 weeks ago and oh behold look where we are...Where is you magic 1370 dave, when all you do is flip flop and say to ride the trend, when that really is just a BS excuse because youll all permabull. You call for a up market but dont admit its fake, manipulated and all nonsense, yet you can sit here and bash someone for his rational logical perspective over a bearish enviroment, more than he can make an argument for a bullish one.Keep up the great posting dave.. you always have been good at riding the line. SO this 1170, ya of course you would remember the critical level, but forget others that it bounced off of which was 1250, and if it fell lower, then 1227 and then 1170 but this is just another example of you being bias...We are in a channel and there is no bullish market, since we have not broken to new highs? So what do you call that? semi bullish?
Ya keep being blind saying the markets are going up, yet you play silver and pump it, which requires a crisis to keep inflating. every post i make is about a big correction?, perhaps you need glasses or more so common sense, when if you actually read them, you would understand that inst the case which i am not bearish going into earnings season or fighting the FED, IMF or BOJ and follow other aspects quite closely. I see things from both sides of the fence and can argue anything you want to throw at me as its mostly nonsense.. "8k to now, but i cant argue that",, LOL everyone and their mom could see its injection based and fraud to say the least, so dont give me your bullish rants. Keep posting enough like you have been and people will forget, while i havent wavered, and others do daily. - all in fun but the bearish argument has more in its corner than the bullish, short or long term, all things aside.
Just because something goes higher, doesnt mean you have more money or value, and thats more relevant in this "bull**** market" than any other time in history.
You confident on this 1450? by years end? i doubt it.
And heres your version: Everything is gonna crash.Market is over valued.Italy is gonna fall.It can`t go much higher.The end is near.Every post you make is about a big correction.Problem is you been saying for over a year now.I guess eventually you will be right.I`ve been saying a slow grind up since 8K and where are we now? You can`t argue that.keep posting about the big correction.Did`nt you just say 1170 not long ago??? Only to have the markets grind up.....again.
uhhh i haven't seen him calling for a big correction for over a year..... where do you see that? don't make things up. only recently did he call for a pullback right around the time obl was killed which he was right while everyone and their cousins were calling for more upside. not every post he makes is about a big correction. oh and him calling for 1170 is not true. he was calling for 1250 i believe, and if i recall we did get there..... wasn't it just a few weeks ago when you calling for a good jobs report, and i warned you the night before don't be so confident, because if it's bad this thing will turn down in a big way. and that's exactly what happend. but you were so confident that 12750 was going to be smashed. didn't happen huh.
offtopic- whatever happend usmc? i miss those nights when i come on here to read the great bull vs. bear debates.
Here is my post on that.Read and comprehend.
I say we bounce back and forth from 11,900 to12,750 before deciding a direction.If earnings from the big guys are good over the next few weeks and the debt ceiling thing gets straightened out then the 12,750 ceiling will get smashed.Massive short covering will fuel the flame.Then theres the other side of the coin: Earnings are not good,job numbers don`t get better and USA defaults on debt.Thats when we will see sub 10K And I am being totally serious here.It is a real possibility.
uhhh i haven't seen him calling for a big correction for over a year..... where do you see that? don't make things up. only recently did he call for a pullback right around the time obl was killed which he was right while everyone and their cousins were calling for more upside. not every post he makes is about a big correction. oh and him calling for 1170 is not true. he was calling for 1250 i believe, and if i recall we did get there..... wasn't it just a few weeks ago when you calling for a good jobs report, and i warned you the night before don't be so confident, because if it's bad this thing will turn down in a big way. and that's exactly what happend. but you were so confident that 12750 was going to be smashed. didn't happen huh.
offtopic- whatever happend usmc? i miss those nights when i come on here to read the great bull vs. bear debates.
ban hammer
Here is my post on that.Read and comprehend.
I say we bounce back and forth from 11,900 to12,750 before deciding a direction.If earnings from the big guys are good over the next few weeks and the debt ceiling thing gets straightened out then the 12,750 ceiling will get smashed.Massive short covering will fuel the flame.Then theres the other side of the coin: Earnings are not good,job numbers don`t get better and USA defaults on debt.Thats when we will see sub 10K And I am being totally serious here.It is a real possibility.
earnings are good because they keep cutting jobs LOL.
Imminent Market Correction for July
I've been looking at charts all day and have come to the conclusion that we are most likely going to experience a very large market correction next week. I'm going to first start by analyzing several indices from before the 2008 recession to present. Afterwards, I'm going to introduce some unique technical events that have happened in the last two weeks that have not happened since the recession until now.
The chart below is of the S&P 500 from April 2008 to present and it charts a 50 day moving average in red and a 100 day moving average in green. Whenever the price level breaches both the MA (50) and the MA (100), a prolonged market correction takes place. Every instance in which the price level fell below the MA (50,100) and stayed under the moving averages is highlighted in red. As can be seen, this occurred four times since the recession began with the most recent taking place from mid May to mid June. The problem this time around however is that the price level has already breached the moving averages and is below the MA (50,100) just one week after the price level came exited the moving averages. This is the fastest that this chain of events has taken place since the 2008 recession began.
Taking a look at the zoomed in levels of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the DJIA we can see that both the S&P500 and the NASDAQ have their MA (100) crossed below the MA (50) while only the S&P 500 has both the moving averages crossed and its price level below both MA (50,100). The DJIA is slightly behind the aforementioned indices but appears to be on course for the moving averages to cross over and its price level to fall beneath both moving averages in a few trading days.
Signals from Technical Analysis
S&P 500 / Dow Jones Industrial Average
Both these indicies will be explained together because they are nearly identical. See the charts and technical analysis below.
RSI - The RSI is experiencing lower highs for each rally that has taken place since February to present, with the latest June rally experiecing a lower RSI numbers, despite being the most powerful rally in recent memory (in terms of the amount of growth in the shortest amount of time). This is a signal for decreasing strength for each rally. This is not enough to base a conclusion on, but is a start.
Price Level - This trend for market rallies since March has been lower highs and lower lows. It appears that we are moving in a channel, and with each subsequent rally, we will continue to experience lower highs.
MACD - Similarily to the RSI, the MACD has been showing both lower highs and lower highs since the start of 2011 and solidifies the previous statement that each subsequent rally has gotten progressively weaker. This is a very bearish signal and makes me very weary of anyone who is promoting the idea of continued bull cycles. The current bull cycle has lost already lost its strength and it only lasted about two weeks from mid June to early July. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the price level of the S&P 500 is once again below the both the 50 and 100 day moving averages. That was a very short bull cycle, the shortest since the recession began. At no other point since the recession began has the price level of the S&P 500 surpassed the MA (50,100) and then in the following two weeks once again fell below the same moving averages - everything happened too fast and rallies are now unsustainable.
Stochastics - The Stochastics are relatively stable, as the highs are the same. What is interesting to note however that the stochastics are experiencing lower lows, another bearish signal.
Candlesticks - The black candlestick of July 14 engulfs the white candlestick of July 15. Further, the July 12, 13, and 14 candlesticks showed us that on three seperate occasions, buyers and bulls tried to push up the market but failed in doing so, as seen by the long wicks (the thin black lines). The bears are already in control now.
NASDAQ
RSI - The RSI is relatively identical for every rally period. No signal can be taken from here.
Price Level - Asimilar to the S&P 500, the trend for market rallies since March has been lower highs and uniquely for the NASDAQ, lower lows.
MACD - Just like the S&P 500, MACD has been showing both lower highs and lower lows since the start of 2011 and solidifies the previous statement that each subsequent rally has gotten progressively weaker.
Stochastics - The Stochastics are also relatively stable, as the highs are the same but similarly, the stochastics are experiencing lower lows just like the S&P 500.
Candlesticks - The black candlestick of July 14 completely engulfs the white candlestick of July 15. Further, the July 11, 12, and 13 candlesticks have longer tall wicks. It is interesting to note that the July 15 candle is the first white candle in five trading days, is a hammer candlestick, and has a long tail to the downside. What this means is that sellers tried to push the market down for that day but were unsuccessful as there were more buyers than sellers. In normal circumstances, this would be a bullish signal, however the aforementioned bearish signals and the fact that Google's earnings were released the prior day leads me to believe that the candlestick is an extremely weak bullish signal and is only being mentioned to limit the bias on my side.
More Charts
Three Unique Events that Have Occurred in the Last 2 Weeks that Have Not Occurred Since the Recession Began in 2008
I am now going to outline three unique events that have occurred in the last two weeks which have not happened since the beginning of the 2008 recession. All these events coinciding together cannot statistically be the result of coincidence alone, otherwise I'd had won the lottery by now... statistically speaking of course.
1. Gold has reached a historic high and attained higher highs while the indices have attained lower highs since May. The May market rally ended much stronger than the late June rally, yet gold is at a higher high. So, while indices are rallying to lower highs, gold continues to rally to higher highs. Note that this is not a suggestion to purchase gold or gold related equities, merely an observation of two diverging trends and the fact that gold has never been this highly priced in modern history.
2. Since the 2008 recession began, the S&P 500 price level has breached and moved underneath both the 50 and 100 daily moving averages a total of four times - the most recent occurrence was last June. An important observation to make is the length of time that it takes between a rally and when the price level breaches the moving averages.
Observe that the S&P price level breached both the MA (50) and MA (100) in early January 2010 and surfaced above the moving averages on March 1. This resulted in a rally until May 6 and lasted lasted two entire months before the price level once again fell below the moving averages. This bear market lasted the entire summer of 2010 and the markets did not enter the next bull rally until September 10, 2010 which lasted to March 16, 2011. On March 16, 2011, the price level breached both moving averages briefly and launched another bull rally that lasted until June 1.
The price level surfaced above both moving averages on June 30 rallied to a lower high on July 8 and as of July 12 has now again breached both moving averages. What we are seeing is that the most recent rally that began on June 30 of 2011 was the shortest rally since the recession began. This rally only lasted 13 days and is now back underneath both moving averages. The next shortest bull rally lasted two months and occurred from March 1, 2010 to May 6, 2010.
So if we order the bull rallies that occurred after the price level surfaced past the 50 day and 100 day moving averages, we get the following:
Chronological Order Since 2008 Recession
8 Months Rally - April 7, 2009 to January 21, 2010
2 Months Rally - March 1, 2010 to May 6, 2010
7 Months Rally - September 10, 2010 to March 14, 2011
1.5 Months Rally - March 28, 2011 to June 1, 2011
13 Days Rally - June 30, 2011 to July 12, 2011
Ordered by Length of Bull Market Since 2008 Recession
8 Months Rally - April 7, 2009 to January 21, 2010
7 Months Rally - September 10, 2010 to March 14, 2011
2 Months Rally - March 1, 2010 to May 6, 2010
1.5 Months Rally - March 28, 2011 to June 1, 2011
13 Days Rally - June 30, 2011 to July 12, 2011
8 Months --> 7 Months --> 2 Months --> 1.5 Months --> 13 Days --> Next... Gone in 60 Seconds?
Here is the Yahoo Finance Chart if anyone is interested in seeing with their own eyes: http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^GSPC#chart3:symbol=^gspc;range=20101230,20110630;indicator=sma(50,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
3. Look at the charts that are listed under the More Charts heading above and look at the June to July time frame. Notice how in the NASDAQ the MA (50) and the MA (100) were parallel for 16 trading days and for the S&P the moving averages were parallel for 13 days. This has never happened once since the start of the 2008 recession. Alternatively, look at these charts below:
I had one more unique event but I forgot it. In any case, these three are sufficient enough to conclude that it is not a statistically anomaly, but rather some very large signals of things to come.
Disclosure - I am long TZA however that does nothing to discredit the technicals, as the charts don't lie.
EDIT: I started writing this up around 7pm and it is now 10 pm... all Asiatic markets opened in the red.
ya "totally serious" because its coming from you dave?? LOL... that US debt default is a bears wet dream and will make the 2008 look like a twitch rather than a drop.
There are far more aspects to it than shitty earnings and job numbers which are going to be under par and bad for many months to come which will cause a bearish enviroment.
Defaulting wont happen as long as they cut spending and have a applicable budget. Its the other issues which are more pressing and in the closet, .. but i digress.
shortie 
awesome post bro. thanks.
