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Stock Market Today - Intraday discussion  

post #1 of 136697
Thread Starter 

Welcome to the Stock Market discussion and analysis thread!

Here we focus on understanding, calculating and formulating analysis to help predict future moves in the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, ES (S&P Futures) and VIX

Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU):


S&P 500 ($SPX):


Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX or IXIC):


Nasdaq 100 Trust (NDX or QQQQ):

 

fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=d1  

post #2 of 136697
Thread Starter 

Important Indexes to Keep an Eye on

Some other indexes, ones that I will refrain from posting charts of, worth keeping an eye on are the following (in my opinion):

S&P 100 - $OEX

Russell 2000 - $RUT.X

Semiconductor Index - $SOX.X

Dow Jones Composite - $COMP

There are others, these are just a few of my faves.

Keep an eye on XLE for energy, XOI for oil, and XAU for gold / silver.

Any other comments or suggestions are welcome.
post #3 of 136697
Thread Starter 

NEWS

I will be posting pretty much all the news I find pertinent and helpful to our insight of broader market movement. I have an online subscribtion to the Wall Street Journal, so don't rat me out and I'll give you a nice little connection.

I encourage you to share any news you find important to our discussion.
post #4 of 136697
Thread Starter 
The pullbacks this week have been minimal, despite negative news.

I was hoping to see a good long entry. It's a little weary to jump in what could be the top of the channel.

OEX rated very bullish.



I'm waiting for what kind of pullback I can get to enter a long.



OEX Intraday:

post #5 of 136697
Thread Starter 

NEWS about N. Korea Nuke

France: North Korea nuclear test was a failure

Pyongyang claims success; Japan imposes sanctions; U.S. readies resolution
Updated: 4:55 p.m. CT Oct 11, 2006

PARIS - France said outright for the first time Wednesday that North Korea’s proclaimed nuclear test produced such a small blast that it must have failed, and analysts warned such challenging talk could lead Pyongyang to try again.

North Korea threatened more nuclear tests and said it would consider additional sanctions an act of war, stoking tensions in an already jittery Asia.

U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said the United States will formally introduce a new draft U.N. Security Council resolution on North Korea on Thursday, with the hope that it would be adopted 24 hours later,


The measure comes as the United States and Japan have said they want the council to pass a resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea over its claimed nuclear test by the end of the week. Both countries have sought to overcome China's reluctance to punish its impoverished ally too severely.

World powers stepped up a hunt for clues about the insular communist regime’s test, with Britain sending refueling jets to join Japanese aircraft trawling the skies for any traces of radiation.

The blast from North Korea’s first nuclear weapons test was believed to have been the equivalent of hundreds or even thousands of tons of TNT, and was strong enough to send seismic waves as far as Japan’s main island.


Kyodo via Reuters
North Korea's No. 2 leader, Kim Yong Nam, said Wednesday that the country's stance on additional nuclear tests would depend on U.S. policy, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


But verifying exactly what happened — or even determining conclusively whether it was a nuclear device — could take several more days, if not weeks, officials said Wednesday.

If some Western powers are to be believed, the alleged test announced Monday by Pyongyang had a force of one kiloton or less — equivalent to the explosive force of 1,000 tons of TNT but far less than the 15 kiloton force of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

France’s Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said French, American and other scientists had detected a blast of “relatively limited size.”

“In any case, if this was a nuclear explosion, it would be a case of a failed explosion,” she said on Europe-1 radio.

Speculation could be provocative
Such speculation about a dud test could be read as a challenge by Kim Jong Il, the North’s reclusive leader, to consider carrying out a second test to prove naysayers wrong, analysts said.

“The reaction could be exactly to carry out another explosion, to make sure it succeeds,” said Georges Le Guelte, a nuclear expert at France’s Institute for International and Strategic Research.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15217370/
post #6 of 136697
The DJIA and OEX feel toppy to me. Both of them keep running into a wall, pullback then recover some. We are due for a significant retrace IMO.






post #7 of 136697
Don't forget to keep an eye on the VIX. Definition and chart by Thomas G. Smith.



The VIX or the CBOE?s Volatility Index is basically a measure of the implied volatility of the OEX index option. Because the OEX index option holds such a dominant position in the marketplace the VIX index is generally considered by traders and investors as a good proxy for implied volatility of the market as a whole. VIX is basically calculated by taking the weighted average of the implied volatilities of eight actively traded OEX calls and puts that are at-the-money with an average time to maturity of 30 days. Because of Wall Street?s appetite for a similar volatility index for the NASDAQ technology market, the CBOE created the VXN or the CBOE NASDAQ Market Volatility Index. This volatility index is widely recognized as the benchmark index for the technology market that is based on the implied volatility of the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) option. The construction and methodology of the VXN is very similar to that of the VIX index.

From a technical perspective both of the volatility indexes mentioned above are popular with traders and investors and are considered to be important market sentiment contrarian indicators. Because these are
contrarian indicators they typically have an inverse relationship to the market. That is, the value of VIX or VXN increases when the market declines and decreases when the market rises. The directional trend and extent of the movement in the VIX or VXN are key factors that may alert traders and investors to a potential turn in the market weeks and months in advance. As with all sentiment indicators the VIX and VXN indexes should be deployed in conjunction with other technical analysis disciplines (ex: trend line analysis, moving average analysis, pattern recognition, retracement and other echnical indicators).

Methodology/Interpretation
The most basic interpretation is as follows: As the volatility indexes increase in value or reach historical highs, the market becomes more defensive as this reflects market participants? increased fear and anxiety. In rare o
post #8 of 136697

Distribution count

distribution has jumped 1 step up yesterday.. 2 for both dow and nas..
post #9 of 136697
12,000 not far off for the Dow.

How long is this going to continue.
post #10 of 136697
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by amohedas
12,000 not far off for the Dow.

How long is this going to continue.
DOW 15,500,

with a pullback or too.

-------------------------------------------------------

Today's market action:
post #11 of 136697
Thread Starter 
Weekly chart by Rayrohn:



Quote:
[Rayrohn:] Weeks not over but...

either one big time break out of fake out lol
watching to see how it closes for the week...


Ray
::Good points::
post #12 of 136697
Thread Starter 
Beige book news was just bullish.

Said economy is not too hot not too cold. Just right (Goes well with "Goldilocks" theory).

Said there do not seem too many serious threats to increasing product price (i.e., inflation).


Dow gaining on it now.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Beige Book, Full Text


Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and based on information collected before October 2, 2006. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary of the views of Federal Reserve officials.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to expand since the last report. Four Districts reported that economic growth firmed while a couple of Districts noted that growth cooled. Other reports generally characterized growth as moderate or mixed.

Consumer spending increased more quickly in a number of Districts, although several reports continued to note that automobile and home-related sales were sluggish. Tourism was generally strong and added some momentum in the New York and Kansas City Districts. Activity in the service sector expanded in most Districts, but Boston described activity as flat and Cleveland and Dallas identified pockets of softness in some industries. Manufacturing conditions generally held up well, with several Districts indicating that growth increased, though Philadelphia reported that activity edged down. Commercial construction gained strength in most of the country. Reports on residential real estate, however, indicated widespread cooling with the majority of Districts citing lower asking prices, rising inventories of homes on the market and softening sales. A number of reports, however, indicated that residential activity increased in some markets. Financial institutions continued to report that residential mortgage lending had tapered off, but commercial lending activity picked up in several Districts. Agricultural conditions generally improved as rainfall brought relief to drought-stricken areas.

A number of Districts reported that labor markets were tight with some noting shortages of skilled workers. Wage pressures were associated with tightening conditions in a few Districts, though other reports noted that wage pressures were in check. While the majority of Districts characterized price pressures as contained, input prices increased in several Districts and a few reports mentioned increased pass throughs by businesses.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Most Districts reported stronger growth in consumer spending, although automobile and housing-related sales generally weakened. Solid back-to-school sales helped boost retail revenues in the Philadelphia, Atlanta and Minneapolis Districts. Chicago said back-to-school sales were within expectations, though "nothing stellar." Sales of upscale merchandise picked up in the New York District, while apparel sales grew more quickly in the Boston, Cleveland and San Francisco Districts. Chain department store sales were stronger in the Richmond District and same-store sales increased in the New York District. Softer residential real estate conditions damped home improvement and furniture sales in the New York, Richmond, Kansas City and San Francisco Districts.

Vehicle sales weakened in several Districts--particularly sales of domestic automobiles, SUVs and light trucks. However, a few Districts reported increased sales of foreign cars and fuel-efficient automobiles. Philadelphia noted that a growing number of smaller automobile dealerships had closed and dealers in the Atlanta District added incentives to move inventory. In the Dallas District, sales of luxury vehicles increased.
post #13 of 136697
Thread Starter 
(Beige book continued)

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Tourist activity strengthened since our last report. New York said that tourism remained robust in New York City. Kansas City reported solid gains in hotel occupancy rates, while tourist activity in the San Francisco District remained at a high level despite some moderation. Tourism in the Richmond District was temporarily dented by Hurricane Ernesto in early September, but rebounded later in the month.

Services
Activity in the service sector generally strengthened across Districts since the last report. The Philadelphia, Richmond, St. Louis and San Francisco Districts reported increased demand for professional and technical services. Boston reported increased demand for consulting and financial services, and along with San Francisco, for healthcare services. Richmond indicated that demand for computer and web-based services firmed and San Francisco noted that demand for media services was stronger. Assessments of transportation services were mixed. Trucking firms reported declining volume in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta and Dallas Districts, and in Cleveland, shipping services continued to soften. Chicago said trucking volume was up slightly and cargo shipping increased in the Dallas District. St. Louis reported that freight transportation companies planned expansions. Atlanta indicated that rail companies experienced steady growth in inter-modal shipment volume, and Dallas said that rail demand was strong.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity remained generally strong in most Districts. Eight of the twelve Districts indicated that factory output increased, while Chicago and Kansas City noted that the pace of expansion slowed. Minneapolis described factory activity as mixed and Philadelphia reported that factory production edged down. The output of energy-related equipment increased in the Boston, Atlanta and Dallas Districts, while Chicago and San Francisco indicated that orders for machine tools increased. San Francisco reported that semiconductor sales were solid. The demand for steel was especially strong according to Atlanta and Chicago, while Cleveland and Chicago noted that heavy equipment sales continued to be robust. Chicago also reported strength in heavy-duty truck production. In contrast, St. Louis said that producers of motor vehicle parts announced plans to lay off workers and Cleveland reported weakness in the auto industry. Reports of softer demand for housing-related products continued to be widespread, but Dallas noted that strong demand from the commercial construction industry helped offset softer residential demand. Cleveland, Minneapolis, Dallas and San Francisco said that sales of food products had accelerated since our last report.
post #14 of 136697
Thread Starter 
(Beige Book continued)

Construction and Real Estate
Nearly all Districts reported that housing market conditions continued to soften, though several noted that activity increased in some markets. Most Districts reported higher home inventories, and several said that homebuilders and sellers continued to offer incentives to attract buyers. Softer home demand in San Francisco led to layoffs for mortgage brokers and real estate agents. Residential construction remained weak in the St. Louis and Minneapolis Districts except in western North Dakota where residential construction was described as "robust." New home inventories inched up in the Dallas District despite strong demand in some of its markets and inventories of single family homes and condominiums rose sharply in the Boston District.

New York and St. Louis reported mixed housing activity. On the upside, Manhattan condominium sales showed signs of resilience, and housing sales rose in Memphis, but both Districts noted weakness in most markets. Richmond reported generally weaker housing activity, but also noted increases in some markets. Atlanta said that housing activity rose in its Mississippi Gulf market, and Minneapolis' Sioux Falls market remained on pace with last year's record-breaking level. Dallas reported particularly robust home sales in its Houston, Austin and El Paso markets.

Commercial real estate markets were strong in most Districts, and activity increased at a faster pace in a number. Leasing activity increased in New York, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco, and held steady in Richmond. Chicago and St. Louis, however, said leasing activity was mixed. Rent increases were reported by New York, Minneapolis and San Francisco, with Dallas indicating that pricing power was shifting to landlords.

Nonresidential construction was generally strong. Construction activity was steady in the Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis and Kansas City Districts and increased in the Chicago and Dallas Districts. Material costs and budget concerns scaled back some projects in the Atlanta and Chicago Districts. The Chicago and Minneapolis reports noted concerns among some contacts that commercial construction may slow in the coming months.
post #15 of 136697
Thread Starter 
(Beige Book continued)

Banking and Finance
Lending activity was mixed as increases in commercial lending were offset by further weakness in residential mortgage lending. The New York, Richmond and Chicago Districts reported declines in overall loan demand, while Philadelphia, St. Louis and Kansas City reported modest increases. Demand for residential mortgages slowed in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and San Francisco Districts. Demand for commercial and industrial loans rose in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis and San Francisco Districts; held steady in the Richmond and Dallas Districts; and declined in the New York District. The commercial lending market was characterized as very competitive by Richmond, Chicago and Dallas. Overall credit quality remained generally good, although increases in mortgage delinquency rates were noted by Philadelphia, Cleveland and Atlanta. Tighter standards for commercial loans were reported by New York and Chicago.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Agriculture conditions generally improved as late summer rainfall brought relief to drought-stricken Districts, although some rains hindered field work in some areas and damaged crops in others. Richmond indicated that tropical storm Ernesto severely damaged crops along some coastal areas. Chicago and St. Louis reported that recent precipitation and unseasonably cool weather delayed corn and soybean harvests. Crop yields in the Minneapolis District improved with the rainfall, though Chicago reported that yield prospects were mixed. In the Kansas City District, cooler weather and scattered rainfall restored soil moisture and pastures conditions, though cattle producers continued to draw down herds. Dallas, however, said that while September rains assisted wheat producers and eased pressure on livestock producers to liquidate herds, many parts of the District still needed rain. San Francisco reported strong sales for livestock and most crops but indicated that spinach producers put planting on hold.

Activity in the energy industry remained strong according to reports from the Minneapolis, Kansas City and San Francisco Districts. Minneapolis indicated that alternative energy industries continued to expand at a rapid pace and that mining production was at near-capacity across the District. Kansas City noted that oil and gas drilling rig counts remained above year-ago levels, while San Francisco said that oil and natural gas extraction continued at a rapid pace. In contrast, Dallas reported that activity in the oil and energy producing sector was virtually unchanged although demand for oil-field equipment and energy services remained strong.


Employment, Wages, Prices
Labor market conditions remained taut since our last report. The Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Minneapolis and Dallas reports characterized labor markets as generally tight, particularly for skilled workers, while the remaining Districts noted that job growth was steady to stronger. Six Districts mentioned labor shortages, particularly for professional, scientific, and other technical workers. In addition, Kansas City said retailers faced shortages of experienced sales workers and Atlanta indicated that residential construction firms were having difficulty obtaining qualified construction workers, despite the slowdown in building activity. In contrast, Cleveland reported that roughly half of the homebuilders they contacted had reduced their labor force.

Wage growth around the nation was generally modest, although faster wage growth for skilled services workers was cited by a number of Districts. The San Francisco District noted that a short supply of healthcare, finance and construction workers pushed wages higher. In addition, Richmond noted a sharp uptick in retail wages and Atlanta reported that some manufacturers had raised entry-level wages in an effort to attract workers.

Most Districts reported few signs of increased price pressures in recent weeks. A number of Districts said that energy prices moderated, but increases in raw materials prices were noted by Philadelphia, Richmond and Atlanta, and a rise in building materials prices was reported by Minneapolis. Instances of businesses passing on higher costs were scattered across Districts; Cleveland and Atlanta said some manufacturers attempted to raise output prices while Boston reported increases in retail prices. Boston also reported that costs for some businesses had increased--especially for airfare and hotel accommodations. Likewise, the New York District noted that accommodation and theatre ticket prices had risen sharply compared to a year ago.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/b...12/default.htm
post #16 of 136697
Thread Starter 
What an amazing rally day.

What is next?

I think we will gap up tomorrow.

But could we pull back?

Perhaps.

WOW!!!

Dow 12,000 this week?!
post #17 of 136697
When the market goes up like this it makes me very concerned. Any really good excuse could cause a large triple digit pullback, like starting a war with Iran or North Korea.

Don't think there is any danger of that before the elections but we might get hit by a terror attack that tries to influence our elections. I don't see anything too major, but even a minor attack could cause a pullback in the broader markets.

Minus any geopolitical concerns, I think we continue up through the end of the year to 12,500 with some minor pullback/consolidation periods as we go up.

I believe one of the reasons we are going up like we are now is because some of the institutions are surprised at the strength of the United States Economy. I remember during the last earnings cycle (right before it began) CNBC had on several analysts who said that it was going to be a good earnings cycle followed by a horrible earnings cycle in the next quarter (this quarter we are in now). I think they are finding out they are wrong and it is that new analysis that is causing these investors to rethink their positions in the market.

Plus, if you remember, last earnings cycle there seemed to be a very large number of businesses that started buy back programs, which are taking place right now. Less available stock for purchase plus a higher demand for that stock means rising prices.

One more thing, let's not forget that with inflation we are only just now hitting new highs (Or are getting close, havn't done the math) since 2000/2001. And since then the economy has grown by about 30% to 12 trillion dollars. The stock market is just now starting to reflect that.
post #18 of 136697
Thread Starter 

Rallies, Corrections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baggi
When the market goes up like this it makes me very concerned. Any really good excuse could cause a large triple digit pullback, like starting a war with Iran or North Korea.

Don't think there is any danger of that before the elections but we might get hit by a terror attack that tries to influence our elections. I don't see anything too major, but even a minor attack could cause a pullback in the broader markets.

Minus any geopolitical concerns, I think we continue up through the end of the year to 12,500 with some minor pullback/consolidation periods as we go up.

I believe one of the reasons we are going up like we are now is because some of the institutions are surprised at the strength of the United States Economy. I remember during the last earnings cycle (right before it began) CNBC had on several analysts who said that it was going to be a good earnings cycle followed by a horrible earnings cycle in the next quarter (this quarter we are in now). I think they are finding out they are wrong and it is that new analysis that is causing these investors to rethink their positions in the market.

Plus, if you remember, last earnings cycle there seemed to be a very large number of businesses that started buy back programs, which are taking place right now. Less available stock for purchase plus a higher demand for that stock means rising prices.

One more thing, let's not forget that with inflation we are only just now hitting new highs (Or are getting close, havn't done the math) since 2000/2001. And since then the economy has grown by about 30% to 12 trillion dollars. The stock market is just now starting to reflect that.

Major disasters--even minor ones (like yesterday's news of the Yankee flying a plane into a building) will often times be responded to by the "plunge protection team" and the "counter risk party management" (CRMPG- See my posts on the "FAQ thread")). I.E., the Fed will keep them afloat. Look at 9/11.

Dow will continue up IMO, until everyone is a bull. The bears will be rooted out--even the most stubborn. Only when all have capitulated will the major banks take profits and cause a leg down.

Expect corrections. They are natural. Do not fear them.

I am thinking now that the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) will perhaps form a cup and handle, and thus keep going up (2500?):



-------------------------------------------------------------------------

I read a lot of blogs: some bull, some bear, one neutral (my fave!).

Out of one of the bear blogs, Tim Knight notes the possibility of a correction to the channel bottom on the S&P 500 3 year chart.

post #19 of 136697
Thread Starter 
QQQQ looking now like it might start the weekend a little early.

Just minor pullback.
post #20 of 136697
Quote:
Originally Posted by amohedas
The DJIA and OEX feel toppy to me. Both of them keep running into a wall, pullback then recover some. We are due for a significant retrace IMO.



I think the trend will continue for a while now. It just broke the upper trend line and now that's it's new support. Looks excellent to me.
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