MON - Monsanto Company - Page 20

Record quarter. Crappy price action
Sold at open at 1.6 as i knew it was going down further..
Disappointing, maybe not good enough guidance.
Ill pick some more up if it drops low enough
I was right about the great quarter numbers at least

should see some upped price targets soon.

 

i believe q3 and q4 are the best earnings to play now as MON likes to guide very conservatively until it has the full season results.

 

im looking to get back in around 77.  wont see any institutional investors selling imo.  still good long term growth

 

back to the range game before next quarter.

 

never any peanut gallery here.  corn isnt as exciting as a new iphone i understand.

 

 

 

any news you foresee coming out that might propel it past 80?

i see its been horizontal for weeks now, i think price targets are all over the place 85/90-ish

maybe fear that not much more upside? 

you're right on earnings though, they're beating, im confused (again) why the drop

conservative guidance encouraged the profit taking.

only 5-10cents raised full year which was already priced in.  plus a fear of deliveries getting pulled from Q3 into Q2 because of the good weather.

in CC, they are not worried at all. 

im not worried as well, looking to see if the 77's hold where ill be buying.

 

look for new price targets to come out soon, could be your catalyst depending on the firm and the #.

 

75 next stop. downgrades from zacks and goldman but no change in price target. good buy in low 70's imo. im looking to short a pop now versus buy the bottom

nice bounce off the 200ema, missed it..

 

looking to short around 77, if that breaks then at the 50ema at 78.50ish

 

selling was way overdone but i see no catalyst moving this back above 80.  better chance of success shorting it imo.

recent plays:

bought puts last friday for 2.87, exited at 4.10 on tuesday.  Tuesday bought 77.50 calls i believe for 2.34 each.  exited those at 2.12 yesterday.

was thinking the trendline would hold but it broke under today.  will see if it can regain it but i doubt it.

bad PR in the wind as well with California trying to pass labeling laws.  and market is posed for a sell off imo. 

 

next stop 72. 

got down to 72 zone like i expected.  broke and closed under 200ma and filled gap from january. 

next stop is 70 where id like to buy.  or will short a pop back up

nice pop up.  held green even when dow was -180 pts.  didnt get puts as looked too strong at the close.  might swing back up to 77-78 area as this move down was unwarranted anyway

im going to be a buyer thursday. closed right above the 200sma on the yearly, right under the lower BB, forward pe of 18, commodity prices holding steady at the moment. Looks like a good place to start a position. If i was buying shares id buy here and put my stop in at 70.

Nice bounce off 70 with the upped guidance and i think buybacks

this one is a buy on the dips now whereas after earnings is more sell the pops.

 

i would look to buy calls in the 77.50 area.  but i bet this one will test 82 in a week if the markets cooperate. 

big decision looming in Brazil

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/13/brazil-monsanto-idUSL1E8HDDUQ20120613?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43

 

Basically, soybean producers dont like the royalties they pay on the Roundup ready soybeans.  Could cost $7billion for MON.

Its kind of interesting how monsanto has been getting royalties once from the seed and again when the farmers replant they have to pay again.

It sounds dirty but its the only way to protect their product.  If they lose the case then they will get killed not just on the 7B in reinbursement but a lot of future sales there.

 

I would have bought the dip but this issue could weigh on the stock until theres a decision.  might go bad as public sentiment is likely not in favor of monsanto.

looks like traders are shrugging off the Brazil stuff until something is decided.  Earnings wednesday morning is on the mind.

Corn jumped out of the gate today because of dry weather.  Positive corn prices is usually good for monsantos stock price.

Personally, Im in with July 80 calls that i got in last friday.  I got in when it bounced off low 77 area but missed 50 cents of upside before i finally pulled trigger.

 

plan is to hold to tuesday where i will cross my fingers for a nice push to around 82.  unload my calls then go from there.

held my calls and looking mighty fine right now.  closed everything out. 

 

Here is a tricky spot .  It made a new 52 week high on tuesday with pitiful volume so might be slowing down..but failed to close above it.  also above the upper BB

i might try a couple puts here as it could use a breather.  we'll see how it opens up and ill take it from there. 

I wonder how high this can go on Corn prices alone?

 

I still think its a good short here down to retest support at 80.  Fertilizer stocks reporting this week as well but should affect mon much imo. 

If it breaks 84 with volume, look out above. 

 

 

 

there goes 84:)

going back to 09 i see 86-86.50 as next resistance.  will be interesting to see if we can break above that. 

 

 

close right at that resistance line i was talkin about.

not sure how the corn crop will recover this year after so long with no rains..  If rains do come, maybe its too late anyway.

so i doubt much abatement in corn prices.

GL farmers

 

edit:  Crop Report for those interested

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-07-16-2012.pdf

 

*only 31% of Corn considered good/excellent.. ouch

Monsanto still in beast mode Corn prices still strong with no let up yet their drought resistance seeds are selling like hot cakes. Watch for news out of CHina too before too long. I still remember CFO leaking a little bit in the florida conference early this year.. really hoping this gets knocked down this week some so i can buy it.

 

Score one for Monsanto.  Dupont lost 1B suit.

 

Been bouncing off the 87.70 range..  Buy the dips in this one or wait til it breaks above 88. 

$85 is short term support than 82.50, 80

 

Were sitting at resistance from back in 09.  i think it will trade between 80 and 90 until next quarters ER

 

looking extremely positive.  PE is a little high and not the strongest dividends but everything else is there.