AA - Alcoa - Page 2

sean, i am not too sure if AA will dip much from here... based on current number, it does not look weak or overpriced.. chart not much resistance until ard 31.. jmo

Bounce right off support

Nice hammer formed today

heavy call action on earnings.....optimistic

Dr. Sean is right stay away. the head and shoulders?
more reliable when it is in a smaller time frame. If you were to use that much distance then you have to give the overall short the same or more to happen.
Amohedas, come on man, that chart makes my eyes cross.

The problem is in the industry as a whole it is in a sideways pattern, AA sits at a real strong support level.
Highly doubtful that it will continue decending.

Earnings dissapointed the street. Is the whole market doomed for tomorrow? lol *sigh* Hopefully DNA's better than expected will help negate any negativity.

Earnings report after market close on Tuesday.

This is IT ! The Breakout ! I'm in.

Alcoa widrawds the bid for Alcan. Great move, more goow news in store for Alcoa here ! Looking GREAT! I'll buy in tomorrow.

*****


So where does that leave Alcoa? Burns points to an interesting potential acquisition wlternative -- aluminum company Norsk Hydro (NHY - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr). The only major problem would likely be the involvement of the Norwegian government. The Rio Tinto announcement could also spark action from BHP and Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), who "will step up and say they don't want to be left out of the aluminum party and make an offer for Alcoa," Burns says.

I wonder if the 50 or 52.50 calls on takeover spec would be a good deal?

Bingo !

either way we are heading for 50 early next week, possibly Monday !


Alcoa under pressure to sell or break up
Report: Australia's BHP Billiton emerges as possible suitor




By Kristen Gerencher, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:30 PM ET Jul 15, 2007





SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Alcoa shareholders reportedly want either a breakup or a sale, and BHP Billiton may oblige them.
New York-based aluminum giant Alcoa (AA : decided to bow out of the race for Montreal-based Alcan Inc.last week after Alcan made a deal with rival Rio Tinto instead. A deal between Alcoa and Alcan would have combined North America's two largest aluminum producers.

Over the weekend, The Times in London reported that unidentified hedge fund investors have taken large stakes in Alcoa recently as speculation grows it will become a takeover target and, according to the report, some of these shareholders are demanding Alcoa execs pursue a sale or a breakup.
Meanwhile, Australia's BHP Billiton asked its advisers, Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan, to consider a bid for Alcoa, according a Sunday report published in the U.K.'s Observer.
BHP Chief Executive Chip Goodyear is planning to step down in October, with Marius Kloppers on tap to replace him, but both men are reportedly in favor of pursuing Alcoa, a move supported by BHP's non-executive directors, the Observer said.
Analysts last week anticipated that Alcoa could stir interest among global mining firms, many of which forecast an uptick in global aluminum consumption, led by China demand.

BHP Bid For Alcoa Rumored In Works
Vivian Wai-yin Kwok, 07.16.07, 3:50 AM ET

Like speed dating, failure in the first round of matching in the current metals M&A mania doesn’t mean a company will leave the room alone.

U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa (nyse: AA - news - people ) may soon get over its loss of its Canadian sweetheart Alcan (nyse: AL - news - people ) to Rio Tinto. Anglo-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton (nyse: BBL - news - people ) reportedly will decide by the end of the month whether to propose to Alcoa.

Speculation intensified over the weekend that BHP Billiton could enter a bid for Pittsburgh-based Alcoa of $55 per share, or $50 billion. The Australian on Monday said BHP would come to a decision within two weeks.

Neither BHP nor Alcoa would offer confirmation, but market sources in the States told the The Australian that BHP Billiton has briefed Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ) on its interest in pursuing Alcoa.

The British paper Sunday Times said Alcoa CEO Alain Belda has been under strong pressure to either sell or break up the company by hedge funds that have piled up significant stakes, and are unhappy with its underperformance relative to other resources companies.

Alcoa on Thursday officially withdrew its $28 billion hostile takeover bid for Canadian competitor Alcan after mining giant Rio Tinto made a significantly higher bid at $38.1 billion. Many investors expect other suitors soon to close in on Alcoa. (See “ Anybody Curious About Courting Alcoa?”)

Nevertheless, investors in BHP seemed not happy with the potential courtship. The stock dropped 2.6%, or 1.03 Australian dollars (90 cents), to 38.13 Australia dollars ($33.29) on Monday.

The two companies are already extensively involved with each other. BHP has marketing arrangements with Alcoa in the U.S. and a minority stake in Alcoa’s Australian subsidiary.

This could open at $50 with the rumors.

I think I will buy some Aug 50$ calls!

nice opportunity to add, 20% pull back from last week crazy run.

so... anyone else playing the possible bid from BHP?

alcoa getting hit hard, due to some rumors...
"On the downside, Alcoa Inc. slipped after a story in an Australian newspaper, citing unnamed sources, reported that BHP Billiton Ltd. miner and metal processor will not make a takeover bid for the Pittsburgh aluminum maker. Shares were off $1.89, or 4.1 percent, at $44.56."
But it's impossible to find the actual article...
Manipulation is my guess!