AAPL - Apple Inc - Page 633

615 resistance - The only thing I have been saying for the past two weeks...

Its a buy the dip scheme. You feel me?

Quote:

Originally Posted by rst 


What's next?

555 Support is what I said last week

looking at historical, aapl stock hasn't really done anything the following few days after the earnings release although theyve been all positive for the most part... but it is the company's first "negative surprise" according to tdameritrade since 2009. 

also aapl's fiscal calendar kind of differs from the norm since it doesn't follow the calendar yr.

so they will report q4 earnings after sept 30th & q1 2013 will start oct. 1st 2012

still the estimate for q1 earnings is $15.34 eps wtf.. 

anyways i'm pretty sure aapl is already "done" for the fiscal year since it has performed strong this year & thats prob. why they revised guidance lower... prob. just saving newer products and innovations for 2013 growth/stability

In an IRA account where long term and short term taxes don't matter, do I sell AAPL for the time being and jump back in later?

Yes or No...

no all these earnings were ugly. no one is popping for poop

Quote:

Originally Posted by chhansen 

no all these earnings were ugly. no one is popping for poop

Actually, seeing companies like FB and Amazon get some negative attention is great for Apple. Any investor who takes a step back and looks at risk/earnings on those three companies will see a goldmine in Apple.

Quote:

Originally Posted by webChris 

Actually, seeing companies like FB and Amazon get some negative attention is great for Apple. Any investor who takes a step back and looks at risk/earnings on those three companies will see a goldmine in Apple.

OK no offense, but out of all the self-reassurance posts I've seen you make of late on this equity (of which there have been many that, honestly, kind of remind me of pump-n-dump penny stock statements) that really don't touch on fundamentals or trends in order to convince yourself and others that you're sitting on some sort of powderkeg of awesomeness, this one might be the most absurd.   I've already detailed why I think AAPL is going to face some headwinds going forward vs. forward tailwinds of analysts and insiders trying to keep it afloat with their reassurance statements, but AMZN and FB have absolutely nothing to do with it either way. 

No Chris makes a good point. I said the same thing after the FB IPO failure as well but I don't think that AAPL makes it back up to $600 anytime soon due to all of the trapped buyers (looking at volume AAPL gets big sellers whenever it tries to make a move up). The amount of investors switching from FB to AAPL may not be able to offset these sellers as a lot of people are also trying to get out of AAPL as well since it's obviously not going to $1000 any time soon, not to mention FB has already been oversold to death. 

The issue here is that AAPL has been stuck in a light range after it's initial run up for the year. The momentum that brought the stock up has long passed and it won't be until next earnings or an interesting rumor/release/whatever that people may be interested in AAPL again. 
 

I'd love to see AAPL higher as I have some shares in other accounts but I just don't see strength in the stock at this moment in time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by webChris 


Well I am just looking at the fundamentals and seeing a divergence in the stock value vs weaker and smaller companies. I certainly see headwinds ahead for Apple, especially in 3-5 years, but for now Apple nearly has a monopoly on mobile. I am not a die hard Apple person. I am a PC guy who owned the stock before buying my first Apple product. I believe a have a good and open perspective on this stock, but I am open to any debate or disagreements. Sorry for any typos as I am typing on my iPad.
Edit: Re-reading my last post, it does sound like some desperate or out of touch person. The point I was trying to make was that people pulling money out of hyped companies have to put their money somewhere, and there anren't many companies out there with these kind of fundamentals and at this value. It is certainly no penny stock, though I know thats not what you meant.

How is it, exactly, that they have "nearly a monopoly on mobile"?  You are aware that Samsung actually sells more phones than Apple (and has a virtual assistant coming out later this year that dwarfs Siri), and that Android has a larger market share in the mobile market than Apple, right?  They dominate the tablet space, but is that going to propel them beyond 600 billion dollars?

But more to what I was originally commenting on:  Facebook and Amazon are but 2 companies.  Facebook isn't even in the same sector in any form, and Amazon is only in the same peripheral space if you consider Apple a retail services company instead of a hardware development company (and I would certainly accept that distinction).  And, certainly in the case of Facebook and a bit less so in the case of AMZN,  they really aren't that widely held compared to a lot of other companies.  Show me an investor who thinks that their only 3 options (or even just their primary 3 options) are Facebook, Amazon, or Apple, and I'll show you an incredibly unsophisticated investor.  When listing those 2 companies as a reason why Apple will suddenly become buoyed, you're attempting to compare a, well, an apple, to a car.

If you're into Apple - by all means, be into Apple.  A lot of people seem to get really excited at those $10 moves, ignoring the fact that for a company priced in the $500's, $10 represents a very tiny move.   And if you think Apple is going to $12,000 like the people on CNBC or that Apple holding 100 billion dollars in cash is a positive thing, while any other company who tries hoarding so much cash is viewed as having nothing better to spend their money on and gets hammered for it (a logic-defying double-standard that I've never been able to reconcile), then by all means, stick around and hope for the best.  But don't think that something that is going to help this equity in any significant way is people looking at FB and AMZN, and deciding to run to AAPL instead.

Yeah Samsung is kicking Apple in the nuts with phone sales, sold 2x as many phones compared to Apple last quarter. I read it's just that people are confused because Samsung stole the Apple design. Probably 3/4 of those people purchasing Samsung phones got confused and bought them thinking they were iPhones. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmejia 

Yeah Samsung is kicking Apple in the nuts with phone sales, sold 2x as many phones compared to Apple last quarter. I read it's just that people are confused because Samsung stole the Apple design. Probably 3/4 of those people purchasing Samsung phones got confused and bought them thinking they were iPhones. 

True, I didn't realize how many phones Samsung were selling globally. They did have several recent releases helping to boost their sales, while Apple has a pending release holding back its sales. Out of people I know around the US, I would say about 70% have an iPhone, while 10% have a Samsung phone, and another 10% have some other phone (not scientific or anything). When I think of mobile, it is a large picture - not just phones. In fact, I consider phones to be taking a second-seat (in the next few years) to tablets. Nearly everyone has a smart phone, and there is so much more opportunity to sell tablets than phones, as people are more likely to buy something they don't have rather than swap out something they've already upgraded time and time again. The iPad has 68% of the tablet market as of Q2 2012. Sure, there is tons of room for people to move into this space, but for now, Apple is on top.

Btw, I am also long Samsung. I think they are very innovative. I am planning to buy a Galaxy Note as my next upgrade.

Quote:

Originally Posted by webChris 

True, I didn't realize how many phones Samsung were selling globally. They did have several recent releases helping to boost their sales, while Apple has a pending release holding back its sales. Out of people I know around the US, I would say about 70% have an iPhone, while 10% have a Samsung phone, and another 10% have some other phone (not scientific or anything). When I think of mobile, it is a large picture - not just phones. In fact, I consider phones to be taking a second-seat (in the next few years) to tablets. Nearly everyone has a smart phone, and there is so much more opportunity to sell tablets than phones, as people are more likely to buy something they don't have rather than swap out something they've already upgraded time and time again. The iPad has 68% of the tablet market as of Q2 2012. Sure, there is tons of room for people to move into this space, but for now, Apple is on top.

 

Btw, I am also long Samsung. I think they are very innovative. I am planning to buy a Galaxy Note as my next upgrade.

Samsung has a whole RASH of next-evolution phones coming out late this year that are going to cut into any new iPhone sales.  The recent Samsung releases aren't the big ones, because they don't have the new virtual assistant in them.  So that's not a "one is buoyed, one is being held back" sort of situation.  Almost everyone, and I do mean everyone, I know is waiting on the new Samsungs to get released before upgrading their phones - and that includes people I know currently rolling iPhone.  I know more than one person who's current-gen phone broke and instead of buying a new one, they downgraded to their old one to wait for the new Samsungs.

...and that's the beauty of phones.  Everybody needs one, and everyone will upgrade theirs every couple of years as new features come out.  They can't take a backseat to tablets, because not everybody is going to need or even want a tablet.  Tablets have a very set ceiling.