Dang...so I just invested in stocks for the first time and got Apple at $590.
I know it dropped to $565 about 2 weeks ago and jumped up $50 in one day...but why the gloom and doom?
I feel like they're a reliable stock (long haul) and things will turn around. How come everyone is doubting Apple?
Venom you do have some deep pockets if your playing AAPL long with 400 shares, but you should take the discipline and practice some money management. When you were in the profits it seemed that you moved your sell target price higher and higher and now doing it the other way around when your at a loss not having a stop loss or moving it lower. Then you go an average in. This is just a recipe for disaster. I'm not trying to rub salt into any wounds, I just hope to help.
I've been nothing but a bear on AAPL these past few weeks.
Sadly, the Apple rally is over until iPhone5 announcement. It will begin its natural move back to record highs. It's stuck in a trading range that tends to get lower. Might get oversold day bounces but its trending down. These months are usually horrible months for Apple as there is a pause in the product cycle and they guided down. No excitement, which Apple was the past few months.
Take advantage of these sell-offs, average down on significant legs, and then do some option action when you know the trend has changed and ready to re-test highs (iPhone5). The bad jobs report is not going to help anyone at this point.
My friend works at a company that sells covers for Apple. They are relatively large and have the latest alpha iPhone5 to model. And it looks tremendous being that it was Steve Job's last baby he worked on.
Tell Cook to handle the 4S so he could only work on the iPhone5 design, specifically.
practice some money management. When you were in the profits it seemed that you moved your sell target price higher and higher and now doing it the other way around when your at a loss not having a stop loss or moving it lower. Then you go an average in.
I agree with you but I don't know Venom and I haven't read all of these posts so he may well be within his range. His tolerances may also vary from day to day.
Dang...so I just invested in stocks for the first time and got Apple at $590.
I know it dropped to $565 about 2 weeks ago and jumped up $50 in one day...but why the gloom and doom?
I feel like they're a reliable stock (long haul) and things will turn around. How come everyone is doubting Apple?
The stock is crashing. I dont know if things will turn around. You are barely red right now, If i was you i would get out now. I stupidly held on so im holding and hoping for a bounce so i can sell this horrible stock.
dude.. calm down. everyone told u to sell at > 600 but u said it was going to 1,000. now you think it's gonna pull a NFLX and go to $70?
markets are game theory + fundamentals.
aapl will return back to highs.. just have some patience.
man there's gonna be so much resistance on this stock now that everyone's freaked out, goodbye to the days of aapl multibag options
The stock is crashing. I dont know if things will turn around. You are barely red right now, If i was you i would get out now. I stupidly held on so im holding and hoping for a bounce so i can sell this horrible stock.
man there's gonna be so much resistance on this stock now that everyone's freaked out, goodbye to the days of aapl multibag options
I don't know how bad the resistance will be. We definitely will have some profit-taking on the next good bump, but every down day we are ridding ourselves of more novice and skiddish investors and those shares are getting gobbled up by smart money. Smart money won't be so quick to sell this stock knowing the value.
My lifestyle hasn't changed with AAPL falling so much so I am in no hurry to sell, unless it is $800. 
I am not too worried either, most of the time I trade based upon technical analysis but AAPL is truly an investment for me since it is so fundamentally sound that I don't mind holding it for several months. I think it is stupid for people to think that the end of AAPL's run up is over, I mean did you see what happened last month when it hit an all-time high of $644? Do these people seriously doubt its ability to reach and surpass those levels, even after such a strong earnings report came out?
The stock is crashing. I dont know if things will turn around. You are barely red right now, If i was you i would get out now. I stupidly held on so im holding and hoping for a bounce so i can sell this horrible stock.
Nate, why tell him to sell and at the same time say you are holding. AAPL is one of the most solid companies out there. There is no doubt it will be right back up there in the not to distant future.
My lifestyle hasn't changed with AAPL falling so much so I am in no hurry to sell, unless it is $800. I am not too worried either, most of the time I trade based upon technical analysis but AAPL is truly an investment for me since it is so fundamentally sound that I don't mind holding it for several months. I think it is stupid for people to think that the end of AAPL's run up is over, I mean did you see what happened last month when it hit an all-time high of $644? Do these people seriously doubt its ability to reach and surpass those levels, even after such a strong earnings report came out?
That's what I said. Everyone has a different risk tolerance and I think you're exactly right about AAPL. 
I'm not going to sell. I invested in 7 shares (about $4100) and it's for the long term investment.
My question about this stock is the price I got it at...$590.
If it somehow bounces back to $590 next week should I sell my 7 shares (I'm on eTrade and get free trades until June 29th) and wait for it to hit lows again (around $550) and invest in it again at a better price?
Everyone claims the sky is falling but I think the time to worry is when all the other stocks are going up and Apple's stock is going down.
And yesterday EVERYTHING was on the down.
Apple has a lot of greatness coming this year:
Mountain Lion, iMac, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, Mac Pro, and iPhone 5.
I know the iPhone and iPad are the two big sellers and Windows 8 is causing somewhat of a scare...but by this time next year I believe Apple's going to be in the television market too with built in Apple TV and Siri on it. Apple's good for the long haul if you ask me.
But like I said...I want to get Apple at the BEST price possible and I know it'll never drop below $500 again...so how low will it actually go?
I wanna look back on this in 3 years and laugh that I was debating between $590 and $550 because it won't mean anything for Apple's stock which is over $1000 a share. Just look at the first post in this forum, the guy said if it goes down to $50 he'd invest...if he didn't I bet he's kicking himself now.
I'm not going to sell. I invested in 7 shares (about $4100) and it's for the long term investment.
My question about this stock is the price I got it at...$590.
If it somehow bounces back to $590 next week should I sell my 7 shares (I'm on eTrade and get free trades until June 29th) and wait for it to hit lows again (around $550) and invest in it again at a better price?
Everyone claims the sky is falling but I think the time to worry is when all the other stocks are going up and Apple's stock is going down.
And yesterday EVERYTHING was on the down.
Apple has a lot of greatness coming this year:
Mountain Lion, iMac, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, Mac Pro, and iPhone 5.
I know the iPhone and iPad are the two big sellers and Windows 8 is causing somewhat of a scare...but by this time next year I believe Apple's going to be in the television market too with built in Apple TV and Siri on it. Apple's good for the long haul if you ask me.
But like I said...I want to get Apple at the BEST price possible and I know it'll never drop below $500 again...so how low will it actually go?
I wanna look back on this in 3 years and laugh that I was debating between $590 and $550 because it won't mean anything for Apple's stock which is over $1000 a share. Just look at the first post in this forum, the guy said if it goes down to $50 he'd invest...if he didn't I bet he's kicking himself now.
If you believe everything that you wrote in your post, ie Apple is fundamentally strong, they have great products, etc, then there is no reason to ask us whether or not you should sell it. If you think that it is going higher then, as you said, it doesn't really matter if you are red right now because you'll eventually be making some money from AAPL.
The key to smart investing is to buy if you think it will go higher and sell if you think it will go lower. No need to sell if you think it will go higher.
In terms of how low it can possibly go, well, none of us can see the future so that's impossible to say. If you really want to sell on a bounce to $590 and try to get in lower again, that's fine, but like you said about the guy with the first post. What if you sell at $590 and it doesn't come back to $550? 
Cheers mate~
If you believe everything that you wrote in your post, ie Apple is fundamentally strong, they have great products, etc, then there is no reason to ask us whether or not you should sell it. If you think that it is going higher then, as you said, it doesn't really matter if you are red right now because you'll eventually be making some money from AAPL.
The key to smart investing is to buy if you think it will go higher and sell if you think it will go lower. No need to sell if you think it will go higher.
In terms of how low it can possibly go, well, none of us can see the future so that's impossible to say. If you really want to sell on a bounce to $590 and try to get in lower again, that's fine, but like you said about the guy with the first post. What if you sell at $590 and it doesn't come back to $550?
Cheers mate~
And both of us know that you cannot hope to get in at the bottom price of anything. Big, big mistake to even think that way. If he wants to add more then it would be advantageous to get in at a lower price but he sure shouldn't sell what he thinks will go up.
I'm not going to sell. I invested in 7 shares (about $4100) and it's for the long term investment.
My question about this stock is the price I got it at...$590.
If it somehow bounces back to $590 next week should I sell my 7 shares (I'm on eTrade and get free trades until June 29th) and wait for it to hit lows again (around $550) and invest in it again at a better price?
Everyone claims the sky is falling but I think the time to worry is when all the other stocks are going up and Apple's stock is going down.
And yesterday EVERYTHING was on the down.
Apple has a lot of greatness coming this year:
Mountain Lion, iMac, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, Mac Pro, and iPhone 5.
I know the iPhone and iPad are the two big sellers and Windows 8 is causing somewhat of a scare...but by this time next year I believe Apple's going to be in the television market too with built in Apple TV and Siri on it. Apple's good for the long haul if you ask me.
But like I said...I want to get Apple at the BEST price possible and I know it'll never drop below $500 again...so how low will it actually go?
I wanna look back on this in 3 years and laugh that I was debating between $590 and $550 because it won't mean anything for Apple's stock which is over $1000 a share. Just look at the first post in this forum, the guy said if it goes down to $50 he'd invest...if he didn't I bet he's kicking himself now.
Nobody knows the future. Fundamentally, AAPL is strong, technically, it's in a downtrend. If you sell and it breaks to the upside, you will kick yourself for missing out on the jump and have to constantly debate buying higher or waiting for a pullback. Why not look at doing some protective puts to insure yourself against short term weakness?
Nobody knows the future. Fundamentally, AAPL is strong, technically, it's in a downtrend. If you sell and it breaks to the upside, you will kick yourself for missing out on the jump and have to constantly debate buying higher or waiting for a pullback. Why not look at doing some protective puts to insure yourself against short term weakness?
I think that makes it an entirely different ball game for two reasons. Why buy puts if you think the price will go up? He's also talking a long term investment and not a short term swing trade. If he wants in at a lower price then I think he should just buy more at the dip and his costs will average down.
Originally Posted by BobK
Quote:
Nobody knows the future. Fundamentally, AAPL is strong, technically, it's in a downtrend. If you sell and it breaks to the upside, you will kick yourself for missing out on the jump and have to constantly debate buying higher or waiting for a pullback. Why not look at doing some protective puts to insure yourself against short term weakness?
I think that makes it an entirely different ball game for two reasons. Why buy puts if you think the price will go up? He's also talking a long term investment and not a short term swing trade. If he wants in at a lower price then I think he should just buy more at the dip and his costs will average down.
Yes, also more importantly he only has 7 shares so a put wouldn't help him reduce short term risk. I agree with Bob's idea of buying more shares if it continues going lower to average down.
Remember that people want to own a good stock from a good price. Every wall street pimp and their little h**'s bought more apple and owned it at good prices. People still own apple from after 08, after the flash crash, and after August of last year. Since everyone and their mother loves to collude in this market they are going to be selling at the same times. Those same people will be buying at the same times as well. Now keep in mind this is a slight generalization, but the majority of human money resides in hands that collude with the other big money participants.
Next thing to address with this in mind is that Apple has made a very big move, obviously.. Over the past 8 months starting from March there was a major balancing area in the 380-400 range. Apple established nicely and made a decent base to lead up to this run, but after moving as much as it did this run what is holding it up in terms an agreement on price? Buyers and sellers don't have a reference point, meaning that one will have to be made. Granted I did tell people at 640 to start scaling out of their apple positions, I am definitely not trying to call a bottom here. I think the balancing area will be made at + - the 540 area and then slippage all the way down to 529. This would give room for money to exit that hasn't already for the market's off season in the summer. It also leaves room for more supply to enter the market due to indices losing traction and coming down to more intrinsic levels. There is no point in holding apple if everyone is shorting the S&P. What controls what, does apple control the S&P, or does the S&P control apple? IMO apple does not control the futures market. The controller of the situation is money. The robots are the money and they give a crap about anything besides probabilities and variables. We have a pending H&S formation on the ES that will be indicative of another strong move with momentum down. If ES can not hold these levels then it looks like a really bad chart. How simple is that? Also patient players, humans and algos will just wait until the picture is pretty again. While I do think there is a chance that apple can bounce at the level it is at now, I find it very unlikely. To me the probabilities are in favor of apple moving down more at this exact time. I do not see ES being able to bounce at all from where it is now. Who is buying? Retail investors think this market is a piece of crap and are yet to come back into it. This is because there is absolutely no sustainability to the market yet. It is the same players playing the same game of collusion. There is no sustainability to the trends, waves, and cycles of the market, specifically due to the HFT's absolutely raping it. Proper economics and structure within the system (government, US, economy) can lead to sustainability of business cycles reducing a lot of the friction in boom and bust cycles.
Example. Let's say apple bounces a bit from where it is initially next week up to about 570, what happens next then? What is more likely from a probability distribution perspective. Are there enough buyers to create enough demand to overwhelm the supply of A. HFT's B. Hedge funds that are scaling out of positions still, or C. sell stops from people that are holding. Because the probabilities are in favor of more downside after an example bounce to 570 there is just that much more logical reasoning for it to go down from where it is and to have the H&S bust like a full vitamin water bottle with a citty lid. Personally from a fundamental standpoint apple has a lot going for it in terms of revenue growth, but the sustainability of that is always in question at a time like this. This is the time where holders or non holders can speculate and say okay here is apple earnings from this past christmas and the first quarter of the year, are they going to be able to do the same thing next year? Are you going to be ready to buy and Ipad 4 next year, what in the heck are they going to do to make it have convincing improvements over the Ipad 3. Yes there will be the Iphone 5 and it will have to be their savior. Who is willing to take that bet as of right now? *crickets*.... The only reason the Ipod is being sustained is because it has become a standard for many companies to prop themselves off. The question is: Is that still going to be the norm going into the future, or I am going to be able to plug my droid into those same items due to universal accommodations from technology. Meaning, and this has happened in the past, that okay now there is an universal adapting system to use that will allow other things to substitute? This would even broaden those companies that were propping themselves off apple in terms of acceptance. This has happened many times USB 3.0 etc... If apple were to suffer a transitional phase of this and their Ipod inventories started stacking that would be very bad news. If they were smart they would practically make no changes to the current Ipod and let demand sift out as time passes and then remove the item. I am referring specifically to the regular Ipod, because the other Ipods do have market placement. And again the ipod could possibly maintain market demand, but I think there are fundamental risks associated with that.
The other problem is HTML 5 and open sourcing. It will just be interesting to see what kind of affects this has on the app market and functionality of the app in general.
http://webdev360.com/html5-the-real-death-of-flash-and-the-apple-app-store-39228.html
AMIRITE...
I just wonder if hedge funds and investors actually understand the logical implications behind open sourcing and HTML 5. The response I am sure is that well the Apple cult will always lead to prosperity for the company. I am just saying be careful, because there is a lot of inherent risk among this change and how it could be the demise of the Iphone. Suppose app developers specifically make an app that targets Iphones and contaminates them with things that would be hidden to most all of people. While one could say the same applies to droid then I guess it would mean that it just depends which side of the fence the better computer programmers/hackers are on... Thus are people/buyers willing to take this fundamental risk ahead of time. My answer, no.
My last note is that they have had awful problems with the 2010 regular macbooks. Almost every other person I know that purchased one has similar complaints about the cheap manufacturing. I had my own problems with snow leopard operating systems that were complex and I don't really want to spend my whole day on here describing them.
I do like their macbook pro's and their regular desktops are solid. I have yet to use their newer operating systems to see their functionality, and I am very excited to do so, but that might be taking a bit longer than I expected as of now.....
Apple TV is going to be a huge hit or a huge miss, and thus again there is a lot of fundamental risk associated with this especially considering the product and the functions is it suppose to encompass. Am I willing to be extremely speculative due to this one thing, eh.. I'll wait until the momentum picks up 
... Let me see the earnings and then we will talk. I decided on a price target of 1000 within 1.75 years after we broke 475 and I cancelled apple bearishness very officially in the intraday chat thread.
I don't have inherent beef with apple as it is very active to trade, but I do think that if buyers are not careful that the price action could turd out if things go bad.
This does not include the fundamental risk associated with the technology sector that I see no one ever talking about and that is that every tech company has a very a big generalized risk exposure from new programming. It only takes a partner or another companies flaws to bring down a give tech. I made a reference to MSFT and vista in the MSFT thread. For that issue everyone pointed fingers at MSFT when it really was nothing related to their product. Every tech company is prone to anomalies with their software product. As quick as apple is releasing products, I consider them to have the most of this type of risk. Another reason why there is no golden tech company, it really boils down to the momentum in the price action and the hype for that 3-6 months. Apple could release the Ipad 4 and have huge problems with either their coding or internals. What happens then, everyone blames apple and doesn't buy their products. I saw a slight bit of this with the regular macbook. And those of you who know me and what my stance was on apple that is partially why.
All of this neglects the problems with our country's debt crisis, current or future presidents, and other countries economic instability.
Other risks include the fact that apple is exposed for evading taxes in a weird way that no one really wants to address properly. If you look at the numbers it's honestly bull S***.
I am not sure I like where this company is going either after Steve's death.
This is a 4hr chart with 8,4, and 1 month VP's to support what I was saying about the balance area yet to being seen.
For those of you either A. Making an investment or B. Turning your bad trade into one, you never invest at one given time period for going all in on your position size. Most every investor will tell you to patiently scale into the position.
And why buy puts? Overhead risks in the market and to protect from temporary downside related to other attributes.
For those of you either A. Making an investment or B. Turning your bad trade into one, you never invest at one given time period for going all in on your position size. Most every investor will tell you to patiently scale into the position.
And why buy puts? Overhead risks in the market and to protect from temporary downside related to other attributes.
I agree with you completely. I just want to clarify that buying a put only helps protect from downside risk if you have 100 shares though because you must have 100 shares in order to exercise an option. If you're buying a put to speculate/trade options then you are actually increasing risk rather than minimizing it.
