AAPL - Apple Inc - Page 577

Quote:

Originally Posted by voki1234 

hi everyone,

I am new here. For a start, I will tell you guys that I have some January 750 calls bought @ 22.00 earlier on Tuesday (I did not sell when it hit 620s) and 20.95 yesterday.

for now, I see:

-it is closed @ 572.98

-gaps:
*#1: 568.18 (03/13/12) - yesterday it came close but did not fill yet @ 570.42 (04/20/12)
*#2: 552. (03/12.12) - 555.75 (03/13/12)
*#3: 476.79 (02/08) - 480.56 (02/09/12)
*#4: 425.10 (01/24/12) - 443.73 (01/25/12)
*#5: 384.85 (12/19/11) - 387.26 (12/20/11)

-SMA 50 @ 569.1904: the big long-term uptrend is still not broken, yet the short-term uptrend is already broken . I would be alert and watching this for more signs...

-right now Europe is a big concern for the market,
*if Europe can hold itself (at least for this ER), I see MM can take AAPL back to 640s - 700s if they beat. If they missed, they could take AAPL down to 580s - 520s. This is I would buy again if Europe is still holding then.

*if Europe fell, SMA 200 @ 438.9712 is the ultimate support. This coincides w/ Gap #4.


-for now  some resistance in the 580s area
& intermediate resistance (stronger resistance) @ 600s

I would hope to see a run on Monday/Tuesday. If there is not one, that would be a big worry for us long. This ER is being clouded w/ many negatives: DOJ/Europe lawsuits and others, people are afraid of the bar being raised too high, toppy market, Europe debt concern. Asides from the mini run back to 620 on Wednesday, we have not see a pre-ER run yet. That is why I would watch Monday or Tuesday the latest to decide.

What do you guys see? What are you planning to do??

in addition, from Yahoo Message board, someone has concerned about what kind of guidance AAPL is gonna come up w/.  (Maybe this is not a big worry as Chinese market for AAPL is just open up.) 

Upcoming FB ipo could be a thread...  Big boys could sell AAPl to play FB... 

no touching after earnings

doing patientce for optimal price entry..

if we miss...or get earnings..we get a selloff

if its a miss....month long sell (with periods of bounces)

hits...i think 2-3 day selloff then bounce back (add eu factors)

we beat..must be a huge ass beat...

powers to 700...but with bigs lags....

I disagree with "powers to 700" on a beat. Even on a beat like last quarter, you have to factor in all of the retail investors buying in the $600 range that have now realized that AAPL isn't as amazing as they think it was. They'll be trying to get out ASAP. 

If you look at what happened last wednesday and thursday, AAPL shares got unloaded in huge blocks. In the past few months that I've been following AAPL, I've never seen that many 1000 share blocks on the sell side in that short amount of time since last Oct. At one point there were like 20 of them in a row within a few seconds. (1000 block is more than half a million dollars worth of shares so don't say that's not a lot.)

I'm ignoring TA for the big picture here. I know AAPL has support here and resistance there, but you also have a lot of retail investors that don't give a hoot about TA that are trading this. 31% of AAPL's shares are owned by retail traders/investors which is actually relatively high compared to 18% of GOOG or the low low low 2% for PCLN shares. (http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/ownership-summary)

Just my opinion: we don't see new highs this month even with a beat. 

Disclaimer: I have been shorting AAPL calls (in other words shorting AAPL) so there is some bias to my post but I think that this is still something to consider for everyone going long.

I'm thinking earnings could really restart the rally on this stock. Yes, the stock has went up extremely fast, however the fundamentals look great and make it a cheap stock. But given earnings coming up and the huge amount of retail investors and like SJE said "noob investors" I think this stock was really looking for any reason to pull back. Enough shorts may have jumped on it, plus a handful of negative opinions (US govt suit - which is tiny at most for Apple, and some downgrades predicting that at some point in the future Apple might have real competition), and retail investors started to get spooked. You read every day how a stock goes up and are told its going to 650, 700, 1000, then you buy and you see a dip - its scary.

Once we see the numbers, as long as it is not a miss, real investors will be gobbling up this stock again. We might see some pressure with a lot of profit-taking, but I think we should have enough positive momentum to get some kind of a rally back on.

Not trying to pump or be blinded to anything - that's just how I see it. I think everyone got too emotional (the bulls and the bears) on this one.

I haven't changed or added any trendlines in weeks and so far they've proven very accurate. Based on them, if AAPL misses earnings on Tuesday we will have AAPL at around $540 on Wednesday. If AAPL beats we will see it over $590 on Wednesday's opening bell and hopefully to the $620 resistance line by Friday.

apple rarely misses earnings so i doubt that.  but hansen made a good point that there will be a lot of sellers above 600 rdy to get out.

ppl stuck with shares at 600-640 will be dying to get out on a pop. 

i didnt realize 31% of retail owns apple.. where did you find that?

If TA is as strong as an indicator for the future, then AAPL should beat. This correction is something that was much needed and for it to better grow in value, a 10% correction is exactly what it needed. Those who couldn't get in before another big run up will now be able to catch this one and those who have been in since $400 or $500 can sell for very nice profits. It's my personal belief that AAPL will see $620 by Friday.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crankndapot 

apple rarely misses earnings so i doubt that.  but hansen made a good point that there will be a lot of sellers above 600 rdy to get out.

ppl stuck with shares at 600-640 will be dying to get out on a pop. 

 

i didnt realize 31% of retail owns apple.. where did you find that?

Thanks. I just pulled up the data from the NASDAQ website. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/ownership-summary

Just to clarify, the 31% means that 31% of AAPL shares/float is owned by retail investors with 69% being owned by institutions. 31% is actually relatively high compared to similar companies. 

Hey guys, I have a rookie question here.. Is it still worth it to buy apple at over 500? Is there any profit still to be made? I haven't invested anything since 2007 when AAPL was around 50 buck/share and I sold it like a idiot cause it kept going down. Still very new to stocks and excuse me if im posting in the wrong area just wanted to get you opionions. thanks

It is hard to say specially lately with how the market has been and AAPL, they have earnings coming up this week, but going off earnings as of lately that really does not mean jack, I personally have been staying out of AAPL and making money else where. 

Pre-market AAPL has been climbing and is down only a few cents at this moment while most of everything else is down. I hope it's finally turning around.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom08 

Pre-market AAPL has been climbing and is down only a few cents at this moment while most of everything else is down. I hope it's finally turning around.

Pre-market has been mostly manipulation by smart money to get retail investors to do dumb things recently. Raise it up a bit in pre-market with a few shares so they can dump huge blocks on you at a higher price. 

holding well compared to 2-5% selloffs across the board

looking to enter weekly calls at the close or after the euro selloff..which is going to be huge

Everyone is waiting until earnings... It could go huge either way. Only if you are a risk taker should you enter now