AUD/USD... - Page 27

Sitting on support at .9826. 1h = Hammer forming? + oversold stoch. Possibility of brief consolidation or a return to the uptrend.

4h = could be Evening Star? If so, that .9826 could be broken later today/tomorrow and the next set of supports include: .9777 (looks weak), .9725.

Like you said Wolf, this week has been news driven so guess we'll have to wait and see.

Edit: 1h Turned into a nice bodied candle. A break below the .9826. schweet.

Exit at .9725. Pierced the support. Had trouble breaking through as expected, especially given US NFP news.

This is pure art of supply and demand



I didn't get all the entries. My first was stopped at B/E because I don't understand this bleeping broker software, then a +1 point because it takes so many clicks to liquidate at the time I lost 4. The trade was just on price action, candles and fibos. Then I had a good, 6 or 7 points when it started to retrace, I didn't think it'd bounce off the entry and go for like 50 or 60 points. I wasn't watching for number 1 and 2 which is awesome formations, but leads to the q of bouncing off support or breaking out and how to guess. And this is on a 5m chart which isn't normally all that great, and You have to be online to play, which is the biggest problem. I suppose I still struggle with active version position trading.

I don't know if i'm supposed to, but I continously move and update my fibo's for a period as price continues to break. It seems valid for x minutes and hours.

What is amazing and frustrating is that NZD/USD trade I had wanted based on the weekly finally broke the price level, w/o paying attention to it, purely on the fundamentals. Can the weekly be traded or just for trending and sentiment?

Im thinking about a possible long here on a break out of our opening range, would have worked yesterday, but i think with australian market holiday, and the clearing we had of orders above 9950, should give us a shot at testing parity or at least todays highs during the asian session.

Looks like we got .9917 to .9892 for our OR,
Currently testing waters below the lower end.
I've picked up 2/5 of my position so far, and will add the rest on a break of the 5min 60ema, the least steep 5min TL, and then finally a break above the top of the range.

Currently, stops are at .9865 for this 2/5ths, and will be brought in closer as(if) i add to the position.

In the full long position avg at .9910,
stops .9990.
I'll take some off at the 5min 200 ema, and then more at .9935 then more at .9945, and then try to get the last 2/5th's to the days high at .9970.

Haha well i closed it all at .9913..
Back in the opening range, no follow though dollar selling on any other pairs either so its not going to have the momo i want.. See if anything comes up later.

RBA announcement tonight. Anticipating a brief move to the downside to fill in the wedge on 1y and 4h. If it moves downside, gonna see what happens in that .9730 - .9770 range.

^ well no go on that. interest rate up another 1/4.

I'm going to regret either not shorting it and jumping in for a few hours, or staying up to wait for the price action to trade the next pop when europe finally opens.

Although chances are it'll just go to 23% and then break up again during Europe. But it's not that far from parity now. You'd think parity is a big border, but that Aud/CAD didn't seem to even care about that number as anything special for the last few weeks when it hit.

Ya, at this point, it's difficult to gauge. I think I might wait to see what the FOMC states. Till then, I can see London kicking this up beyond parity.

Apparently it neither retraced nor flew up. It seemed to just have found a new range and floated above parity.

This is getting very correlated for the time being.I dont think it means much but something to note anyways. Must be all dollar sided activity.
The comparison in pink is the S&P futures.

RBA decision tonight. Several increases throughout the year. Maybe they'll hold @ 4.75?

Long .9951, -25pip sl, and +40 tp

Been watching this too for a drop at some point. Negative divergence on MACD and RSI on the weekly. It also failed to make a new high after the negative divergence formed, so that is another clue that this is running out of steam. Been going short on every spike when it nears resistance and looks ready to reverse, and gone long a couple times too. Yesterday I longed the gap down and made out nicely. 

 

 

 

On the daily chart I'm looking for a break of that lower trend line to potentially set things in motion. I'm not holding a position right now but am looking for a good spot to go short. If I had been on my toes I would still be holding my short from last week, but I wasn't so I'm not. 

 

I mostly trade on cloud breaks (in/out) rather than through them.

Watching how well this support on the Monthly IA (ichi average - top of cloud) holds up.

 

Cloud looks pretty thin around Feb 21st. A break through that would be an easy short entry.

Waiting and watching for now. 

Pretty textbook move.