AUD/USD... - Page 19

Just a heads up--the RBA will make its announcement at 00.30am tonight on whether to increase the rate from 4.25% to 4.50%.. Thats about 15 hours from now...

IMO, The 4hr chart on this looks absolutely fantastic for a nice play to develop here soon... Overall sentiment is for this pair to go higher to the 9320's and above...and I have a trade in to trigger if it does...but not til it breaks some key S&R areas out of the current range..

FWIW--I expect this to 'play dead' mostly for today stuck in its current range til we get closer to Japan opening later...but regardless as we draw near we could see some sharp anticipation moves in this pair prior to this....and should certainly get rocky & rolly come announcement time...

Currently its in the 'middle ground' around 9260--The .9240 support and .9275 resistance areas are the key areas to watch for breaks of to enter trades...IMO..and it also happens to be the rough 'range' this pair should stay within for the most part for the next several hours. Overall its really up to he RBA rate and their expressed sentiment at the announcement....so we'll see what catalysts or anticipation can get it rolling....or falling..

While I have a long to trigger above, there is IMO a riskier short trade I am thinking about here that could develop if RBA sentiment is what I think it will be and will show a cooling off period to begin....and I'll probably place a short trade to scale in under the support if it should fall suddenly...but I want to see what this pair does til then & how it reacts...

so til then...see how she goes...


-w

RBA rate decision in under 8 hrs at just after midnight EST...and this pair is still farting around in that range I mentioned earlier...should start to get busier & more fluid in the next few hours for all you swing and range traders...


-w

My short triggered below the daily range..the long entry never got hit so that is nixed for now.....the RBA looks to be cooling off possibly for the future along to what I was thinking...so the riskier trade I mentioned seems to be the one to play.. Now just have to see if it follows thru in London to hit some exit targets....




-w

Been a nice trade overnite on this pair ....see if it continues or reverses and stops out...




-w

Rode this short down to my max exit target which it hit easily to my surprise...a great trade overall..

Starting to see hesitation develop here....not sure if it will bounce or if it will just begin to drift & fart around again or its taking a break before falling more... Watching for now. Should know by Japan tonite if its gonna drift sideways, correct back to around .9170..or continue lower and break support.. IMO--Bounce should be signaled by a move over 9130/35 area...continuation signal should be a dip back to 9090...anywhere holding in between is a drift & pause. The 4hr chart tells me support is weak and we could see support break and head to .9020 without a problem....but it shouldn't be as clear & direct a ride as this initial drop was..

FWIW--The mixed sentiment for future hikes, and the factor of the rate hike being what was expected, is what caused the fall. This is what I noticed in my riskier trade short I mentioned as I was reading forecasts and looking at the 4hr chart and noted the channel the 4hr was in that was ripe to possibly make a move to touch bottom...and it did. Yes the hike was 'as expected' and overall good for the AUD--but since they have raised rates consistently now for many many months & had the better of most of the world economies for being impacted the least--the mixed sentiment given is being interpreted that such could be the last hike for a bit..til after the summer (or the aussie 'winter') at least..and that they may take a pause now to re-assess their economic concerns and the overall global picture. Add into that the possibility that the US 'may' be on recovery(I doubt that--but thats another story)--it was a good combo of factors to not discount a short trade possibility to develop.....even tho riskier at the time before the news compared to a long IMO.. Rate news for this pair is not a huge driver usually...usually only good for 25-50 pips (hence why it was a 'riskier' idea)...but this concern for the sentiment was enough for this pair to drop significantly from yesterday if the rate came out as expected....

See how she does into Japan tonite....


-w

Glad you and others got a piece of it!



-w

Pair broke the weak support overnite and bounced off that 9020 area...to around 9100-9050 range...

Seeing what the USD jobs reports may say--and the pre-NFP hesitation that may develop...this pair may stay 'quiet' for the next 24-36 hours and begin to hug just under the 9100 and above the 9050 mark....

Note--AUD has trade balance and retail sales # due out...

JMO...

-w