AUD/USD... - Page 17

Howdy...
Just a quick little heads-up on the RBA announcement tonite...

Any Aussie fans should pay attention as the RBA is expected to raise rates once again for possibly the 4th time in a row.....in anticipation of this move, the AUD/USD has been rising most of the day today since London's close this morn in the US. There is a LOT of HYPE behind this possible hike--and a lot of 'unprecidented' news which has been adding to the bullish feel in the AUD today. Its risen a bit over 100 pips from this morning which is really stretching it for this pair--I would look for a correction move on this pair tonite to stabilize todays anticipation.

Here is my plan, FWIW...on announcing a rate hike to 4.00% I would expect a move lower from the .8900 area down to a 8870 level to be relatively easy..but we'll have to see. I would like to keep my target in the 35-45 pip range which is decent for this pair. Any area above 8900 to short should be a good entry--I'm short already at 8914...but 8900 or better seems good. 8900 IMO may be a tough nut to crack if it holds before the announcement and the sentiment is stronger then expected that the RBA may not do anything but pause...alternately it could be a rally and bounce point for days ahead should the RBA not make the hike.

The consensus of most is the RBA will hike up the quarter point..and most are expecting this pair to move short at announcement... Because of that, 'sheer anticipation' could make the move lower smaller then it should be overall at first as people hold waiting..patience is in the traders favor...and my stop is back up at 8950. I think 35-45 pips is a good safe trade goal & risk...and about normal for ths Aussie / US dollar. Why not bullish on a possible rate hike? IMO and many others the RBA is stretching things with a 4th consecutive hike--which could be the last for a while--and anticipation of a hike has been building all day long inflating this pair....and if so then traders will sell given the factor that this could be the last rate hike for a while if sentiment is not promising for growth or they sense a pause ahead for the RBA...and that the pair will need a correction move after the anticipation of the day. What will potentially make it bullish is if they don't raise and hold at 3.75%--and add a stabilizing stance to their rates at this time which means folks could see a solid buy & hold position to take up in the AUD and take it up from 8900....

Also to note--the AUD/JPY looks like the more FUN pair to play tonite with a potential for a 60+ pip move....its risen about 130 pips today in anticipation and tis one is a bit more fluid then the AUD/USD....I also have a similar short trade on this pair.

As always--have to see how it goes...they could hold and screw me or tye market could be a pain and go long..but thats Forex trading--stops are our friends. This is one of the last 'news plays' I still trade..but IMO its one of the more easier and fun ones to stab at and the Aussie is for me a fun pair to trade...hope folks will check it out. Kickoff for the announcement will be around 10:30pm EST...

Hope everyone is having a great trading year so far..its been kind rough out there I know and we all have rough patches...but keep at it...

GLTA..I may not post much but I'm always watching you folks...


-w

Howdy Marty...

Glad to hear your trade worked out!! Hope some other readers got in on the Short idea and potential here too...the chart today to me was a real beacon just screaming to be traded that I just had to post about it...

Got my targets & pips as planned easy and thensome--not as huge in pip gains as what actually happened as the pairs dropped about 100+ pips each in about 10 minutes and my goals were smaller..but it was a smart and safe trade plan given the circumstance...and thats my motto--trade safe, trade smart.. Trading Forex is not about the what-ifs and home-runs...its about hitting constant base runs. The RBA news is one of the last news plays I look forward to--its a fun one...but yeah--you gotta have some wiggle room in it for the stops to endure...

The RBA announce shook things up a bit and took everyone by surprise...but they let it known that future hikes may be in the works. Its funny cause 20+ top bloomberg economists around the world polled were all wrong...they were all positive the rate hike would happen as they were unanimous in that idea about the RBA raising rates to 4.00%... Go figure...the market was expecting a hike which was blatantly obvious in the slow steady rise it had today--which made the fall so much bigger when it didn't happen.. If the hike had happened the drop would have been about half what it did. But overall the sentiment for a short was right on and that surprise news made this move go further then expected...this cooling off by the RBA could add to global sentiment and come the NFP end of this week it could be significant for the USD...

But still--made my pip targets in the trades on the AUD/USD and the AUD/JPY as planned for a total of about 100 pips between the two pairs and that is all I care about... Glad you had a good successful trade!


-w

Rate hikes will always trump anything usually in the currencies...but its the sentiment the banks convey with its announcements that sets the tone overall. Hope you kept the AUD on your radar....as earlier noted if the RBA didn't raise rates that .8900 area I felt would be a rally point to watch for--and it certainly did trek back up to that 8900 mark after the RBA announce to hold to gather itself before finally falling again. Todays 170+ pip fall from 8800 was rather impressive for this pair but I missed that one... I did have shorts in play on the AUD/JPY pair and that one tanked about 300+ pips today...I was glad to get a small bite out of that move and net some pips...

FWIW...for whoever cares..here is a tip on why I had the AUD/JPY in trade over the AUD/USD today--check your 1hr charts on both pairs for the past 36hours and note the MACD on the AUD/USD had dipped under the day before but price really didn't go anywhere after...it held its area...and in London last nite the MACD lines began to tighten up together like there was hesitation developing... Now where the AUD/JPY 1hr chart MACD--the MACD lines JUST broke below in London last nite instead of the nite before--and spread out with a bit more confidence...oppposite what the AUD/USD MACD lines were showing so by 3am EST out of the two charts before I went to bed I chose to put short trades to the AUD/JPY based on that 'weaker' in appearance chart for the move short..it appeared that the JPY was going to give way first and more. Both pairs worked out well but for whomever may be wondering why I played one but not the other--that is why...I felt the AUD/JPY had a better chance short at moving lower stronger and farther based on that tiny technical.


These little AUD pairs are just a bunch of fun to trade when they get moving....


-w