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post #761 of 942
7/1/10 at 6:10pm
Thread Starter 
My validation correction--it should be at 1.0530 to scale in more..not 1.0545...

FWIW....time will tell....

-w
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post #762 of 942
7/1/10 at 6:11pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
Yep..it could get whippy...$/CAD rarely will 'whipsaw' more then 60-75 pips tho...set your stop outside that area and you should be able to ride it out provided the # doesn't screw us all and send this to 1.08..to which I'll be pissed as my stop will be up towards there....but 'risk is our business'..to a degree of course...

Always play within your comfort zone--and if your comfort zone means sitting it out or waiting for something you feel better about for a trade--that is perfectly OK..if your comfort zone means pulling out and re-entering after the NFP--that is perfectly OK too..if your comfort zone is to try for 10 or 20 pips and nothing more--that is also fine.l... Remember here is no 'boat' to miss....no 'one big trade' you wait for...the boats come and go all the time. You never want to trade to 'make' your account in one trade....just like you never want to trade to 'break' your account in one trade either.. you want to trade safe and trade smart but always do so with your own risk exposure in mind to live to trade another day...


-w
You're right, good points. I personally just would play it for a 30 pip stop or so, just to play this breakout. Don't really have a long term opinion on this pair or anything. I'll still play it, but when NFP comes and my target isn't hit, I'll just cut it. Usually I find NFP fairly predictable, just that chop as you mentioned, while I play with tiny stops, is very bad for business lol.
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post #763 of 942
7/1/10 at 6:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
Mattman (good eye on the S&R grasshopper) has IMO the right idea--a break outside the box area of that 1.0570 area--should be a good trigger to short... it just has to then stay under....
Im still only a grasshopper I havent grow to at least a praying mantis by now

I agree with the "missing the boat" statement. The market is open 24 hours, there is no need to trade just to trade when nothing looks good. If you wait a few hours the charts could get a lot easier to read and then is when you should trade. Not when your bored at home and feel like you have to make a trade because everyone else is. Patience is a great thing to have while trading

It looks like its trying to break again, its still holding strong though...
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post #764 of 942
7/1/10 at 6:27pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattman27 View Post
Im still only a grasshopper I havent grow to at least a praying mantis by now

I agree with the "missing the boat" statement. The market is open 24 hours, there is no need to trade just to trade when nothing looks good. If you wait a few hours the charts could get a lot easier to read and then is when you should trade. Not when your bored at home and feel like you have to make a trade because everyone else is. Patience is a great thing to have while trading

It looks like its trying to break again, its still holding strong though...
Yeah, whenever I take some average trades that fail, there's always a wealth of opportunity usually within a few hours. At that point I'm so annoyed from losing, I take a break and say, screw these trades, can't suffer anymore loses today! And of course they will always be the best trades ever. Have learned that lesson about 1000 times now
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post #765 of 942
7/1/10 at 7:37pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattman27 View Post
Im still only a grasshopper I havent grow to at least a praying mantis by now

I agree with the "missing the boat" statement. The market is open 24 hours, there is no need to trade just to trade when nothing looks good. If you wait a few hours the charts could get a lot easier to read and then is when you should trade. Not when your bored at home and feel like you have to make a trade because everyone else is. Patience is a great thing to have while trading

It looks like its trying to break again, its still holding strong though...

Ok..you're right...'grasshopper' is probably inaccurate...but I feel weird calling you praying mantis

Patience and waiting for the set up to happen or not is one of the hardest disciplines to learn and is always an ongoing struggle for everyone...forcing a trade or taking it just cause you want it to be there and hasn't given you any determined move or validation to that its doing what you thinking it will, more often can screw you then reward you.

-w
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post #766 of 942
7/1/10 at 11:47pm
Thread Starter 
Pair is slowing...range is narrowing..may see a last effort 'death roll'...a swing up about 20 pips before it breaks the bottom and drops...



watching....


-w
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post #767 of 942
7/2/10 at 12:36am
Im short at 1.065 and again here at 1.0580 with a stop at 1.0616 which is that downtrend on the 5min.
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post #768 of 942
7/2/10 at 1:11am
It looks like the trend line has been broke, it should be picking up steam down in the next few hours. Im still cautious and willing to take profits earlier than normal just because im afraid the eur/usd has run up so far, so fast its due for a retrace, thus usually causing this pair to move up
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post #769 of 942
7/2/10 at 1:47am
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattman27 View Post
It looks like the trend line has been broke, it should be picking up steam down in the next few hours. Im still cautious and willing to take profits earlier than normal just because im afraid the eur/usd has run up so far, so fast its due for a retrace, thus usually causing this pair to move up
Everyone on hsm is short u/cad. Lets see how good we are Hope it can get to my target prior to NFP.
Wouldn't worry to much about the e/u btw. Just will cause yourself confusion imo. I think its best just to look at each pair on its own. But thats just my opinion of course.
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post #770 of 942
7/2/10 at 2:19am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds View Post
Everyone on hsm is short u/cad. Lets see how good we are Hope it can get to my target prior to NFP.
Wouldn't worry to much about the e/u btw. Just will cause yourself confusion imo. I think its best just to look at each pair on its own. But thats just my opinion of course.



Individually each pair is its own animal and should be treated as such... What one pair does, with few exceptions, has little influence or translation equally onto another (EUR/USD and the USD/CHF for example are one of the correlation pair exceptions I have found)...especially when you are dealing with commodity based currencies like the CAD or the AUD which can have different econ influences. Each pair will act and re-act to its own volatility and move within its own fluidity apart from others...this is why its critical to STUDY individual currency pairs--and study them for months at a time minimally--to learn how to trade individual pairs before you go scanning the wide variety of markets til you can learn that pairs 'language' and habits.. You have to see how a pair acts and reacts and 'forecasts'...what moves it...how volatile or fluid it can be and at what times per day you can expect to see certain amounts or levels of movement...and what is 'normal' and 'abnormal' in how it acts. Traders have to learn the pairs they trade..OTJ trading is fine to learn--but you have to dedicate yourself to ONE pair for many months til you learn that pair with confidence... Spend a few months on a single pair--at the end of a year you have several pairs you 'know'...




-w
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post #771 of 942
7/2/10 at 2:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
Ok..you're right...'grasshopper' is probably inaccurate...but I feel weird calling you praying mantis


-w
I tried coming up with something better than praying mantis but couldnt find anything related to a grasshopper Praying mantis does sound weird
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post #772 of 942
7/2/10 at 4:02am
is it looking to run again?
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post #773 of 942
7/2/10 at 4:15am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by emptydogg247 View Post
is it looking to run again?

Well I'll be pissed at canada if it does reverse and head to 1.08...


Not sure--but I'm thinking its that that 'death roll' run up I mentioned earlier to watch for...a shake out before the real moves.. See if it holds under 1.0610 area--if it does it should fall again when session opens. This move is pre-london which is why I'm thinking that way.....so we'll see where it goes....London and into NY will tell...




-w
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post #774 of 942
7/2/10 at 4:17am
Will be out soon myself. Was 2 pips from going to cost. Bleh bleh blah QQ lala.
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post #775 of 942
7/2/10 at 4:19am
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
Well I'll be pissed at canada if it does reverse and head to 1.08...


Not sure--but I'm thinking its that that 'death roll' run up I mentioned earlier to watch for...a shake out before the real moves.. See if it holds under 1.0610 area--if it does it should fall again when session opens. This move is pre-london which is why I'm thinking that way.....so we'll see where it goes....London and into NY will tell...




-w
You from Canada by chance wolf? You seem to really love this pair. I never see you post on the e/u thread.
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post #776 of 942
7/2/10 at 4:49am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds View Post
You from Canada by chance wolf? You seem to really love this pair. I never see you post on the e/u thread.

Nope...I'm not from canada...though I like to visit BC on occasion. I do like the Canadian .9999% pure Silver and Gold Maple Leaf coins though and own many...

I just have played this pair a lot over the years and learned a lot about it.. I do play the E/U sometimes...just not a ton...and since I don't trade every day--I like the $ CAD cause I can usually set a trade and come back to it later without a lot of concern for swings...its a more steady pair for my style of TA and what I look for. There is a lot of market 'noise' in the E/U that doesn't usually make thinggs as clear as some other pairs for mid to longer term holds or daily chart TA.. The Euro pairs I tend to like to play more are the crosses...E/J..E/G.. I also like GBP and the Aussie sometimes...


-w
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post #777 of 942
7/2/10 at 11:58am
I played this trade terrible. Im out with a 13 pip profit Something doesnt seem right about the short anymore so i just pulled out.

Good luck to everyone still short
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post #778 of 942
7/2/10 at 12:54pm
Thread Starter 
only slightly irritating way to start a weekend....but its got a way to go for my stop...



-w
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post #779 of 942
7/2/10 at 3:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by emptydogg247 View Post
is it looking to run again?
I closed my long position out before bed last night at +15 pips just so I could sleep well, and now this SOB is doing what I thought. Could have been up 60 pips by now , oh well ya got to sleep sometimes. I think it hits 1.073-1.074 ish before we turn back around.
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post #780 of 942
7/2/10 at 4:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
Nope...I'm not from canada...though I like to visit BC on occasion. I do like the Canadian .9999% pure Silver and Gold Maple Leaf coins though and own many...

I just have played this pair a lot over the years and learned a lot about it.. I do play the E/U sometimes...just not a ton...and since I don't trade every day--I like the $ CAD cause I can usually set a trade and come back to it later without a lot of concern for swings...its a more steady pair for my style of TA and what I look for. There is a lot of market 'noise' in the E/U that doesn't usually make thinggs as clear as some other pairs for mid to longer term holds or daily chart TA.. The Euro pairs I tend to like to play more are the crosses...E/J..E/G.. I also like GBP and the Aussie sometimes...


-w
That's cool, personally never done well on this pair. To me, it seems choppy, and I can never define where I want to take profits, or where I want to protect myself. AT least thats been the story for the last few months, as of course, its just been ranging
BC is lovely...
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