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post #661 of 956
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds View Post
You do a great job. I try to help with what I know, but not nearly as thorough as you are. Good calls too, makes me think I should add a little fundamental knowledge to my trading. Where do you go to read about news articles that you find helpful? Or anything in particular you subscribe to that you find useful?

You actually do a good job at helping folks out...hence that shiny Junior Analyst badge you got last month.. Keep up the dedication..you get back more comprehension and understanding when you try to help others understand..

For news--I keep it simple...I just basically stick with DailyFX articles and commentary...and watch world news event stuff and think how it should effect things (like holidays--they have an effect)....

BUT--here is the thing--don't believe every analyst you read or every news story--instead ask yourself, based on what you see and read in the papers and in the econ data released or the chart, if you agree or disagree with the chart and prediction...and go with what YOU believe and agree with. The pro analyst may or may not be right but then again you are the one making the trades..so you can only trade on what you believe in or agree with...

If you are uncertain--watch and study how it plays out...then learn why it did what it did and who was right and why...and tuck that nugget of knowledge away for later and remember the situations and set ups you saw...cause you can bet with all certainty that history and situations DO repeat themselves..


Remember--fundamentals in FX are 45% of the puzzle...technicals are the other 45% of the puzzle...the other 10% is "x factor"...do you want to bet based only on 45% or based on 90% of the information..? The more you know the bigger your view--the better you can see.


-w
post #662 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
You actually do a good job at helping folks out...hence that shiny Junior Analyst badge you got last month.. Keep up the dedication..you get back more comprehension and understanding when you try to help others understand..

For news--I keep it simple...I just basically stick with DailyFX articles and commentary...and watch world news event stuff and think how it should effect things (like holidays--they have an effect)....

BUT--here is the thing--don't believe every analyst you read or every news story--instead ask yourself, based on what you see and read in the papers and in the econ data released or the chart, if you agree or disagree with the chart and prediction...and go with what YOU believe and agree with. The pro analyst may or may not be right but then again you are the one making the trades..so you can only trade on what you believe in or agree with...

If you are uncertain--watch and study how it plays out...then learn why it did what it did and who was right and why...and tuck that nugget of knowledge away for later and remember the situations and set ups you saw...cause you can bet with all certainty that history and situations DO repeat themselves..


Remember--fundamentals in FX are 45% of the puzzle...technicals are the other 45% of the puzzle...the other 10% is "x factor"...do you want to bet based only on 45% or based on 90% of the information..? The more you know the bigger your view--the better you can see.


-w
Thanks for the compliment, just try to pass onto others what I've been taught. Without it I would be absolutely nowhere in trading.
The problem I have with analysts are that if they really knew what was up, they would be trading, and not writing news. Its tough for me to trust what anyone else says until I have seen proof with my own eyes that what they are saying has a good percentage of being correct. I think I will do as you have said, and follow some and put them to the test. See If I can find some actual legit information and advice. Thanks again
post #663 of 956
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds View Post
Thanks for the compliment, just try to pass onto others what I've been taught. Without it I would be absolutely nowhere in trading.
The problem I have with analysts are that if they really knew what was up, they would be trading, and not writing news. Its tough for me to trust what anyone else says until I have seen proof with my own eyes that what they are saying has a good percentage of being correct. I think I will do as you have said, and follow some and put them to the test. See If I can find some actual legit information and advice. Thanks again


When I read analyst reports and views I don't read it for "what is the pair going to move to or do" information--I look for the information they glean and talk about in there... Such as how a Bank is positioning itself or what their interest rate reports or econ data have noted recently, how the market in general may be exhausted or oversold/bought, a few news factors they may note and so on or a history I may wish to consider or look at. Analysts do a great job of compiling information together for us to track and verify or fact check and consider--and that is ALL they should do IMO....but sometimes and often they do a lousy job at "predicting"--and again that comes down to YOU as the trader have to decide for yourself and weigh the information for predictions..not what Joe Analyst is saying you should trade. As the trader when we plan we have the choice to agree, disagree or step back and watch..we are not FORCED to trade...but we have to force ourselves to learn for our own.. A good trader is one who makes their own decisions....they do not just follow the herd... In almost ANY decision you can weigh and view the two sides of a position and decide which you agree with or disagree with--that is often the Correct side...and when you cannot make a decision--you stay neitral and out of it until you can decide.

In reports and news I look at the levels they state and see what they see, and then ask myself if I would agree with it or not. Simple. If I do then perhaps I can build a trade on that and other info...if I disagree I can perhaps build an opposite trade based on info and other data I have found...or I can sit on the side and watch and wait for "my wave" that makes sense finally. As I said--not every analyst is "genius"... I've read a lot of "great" analysts whom I disagreed with--which has actually helped because I would then trade against them and many times I would be right...and the times when I was wrong--I would re-view their analysis to see what I missed or did not give enough consideration to.. Some 'analysts' are down right stupid but that can also be good--because there are some folks who blindly trade based on what an analyst "sez to do's". Which can be good because that could be telling me a lot of people are NOT reading things right..which may tell me its a bad time to try and trade this pair. But its information--take what is needed that you can use and discard the rest.

The one thing that really turned MY trading around was thoroughly dedicating and disciplining myself in making my own trading decisions which I trusted--which I was trusting and confident in because I researched or validated or found validation in and reasons to support. Took a lot of the emotion and worry and doubt out of it...because I could make 100 decisions in a day on trade ideas which may or may be half-assed or work or not....or I could do the work and weeding and weighing things and make 4 or 5 GOOD decisions which I felt were the best of the best ideas or had the highest probability of occurring...

Most analysts do trade--some do not...but what I am looking for when I read news reports and read analyst opinions is not for someone to tell me what to do--you do not read news and analyst reviews to be told what to do....I'm looking for information on which I can use and review and fact-check and consider which I can then base MY trading from. That is how you should approach it IMO....because ultimately its YOU that has to make and plan and believe in and trust your own trades. If you trade based on what someone else says for levels etc--you will get burned every time.... If you are trading and do not trust your trades--then you are just 'guessing' if you do not have validations and reasons for every trade and part of that trade in which you do....IMO...


-w
post #664 of 956
The funny thing here is that equity traders where eyeing the FOREX traders for clues as to which direction the market was going to go. Now they are all staring at each other wondering what to do next
post #665 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post


When I read analyst reports and views I don't read it for "what is the pair going to move to or do" information--I look for the information they glean and talk about in there... Such as how a Bank is positioning itself or what their interest rate reports or econ data have noted recently, how the market in general may be exhausted or oversold/bought, a few news factors they may note and so on or a history I may wish to consider or look at. Analysts do a great job of compiling information together for us to track and verify or fact check and consider--and that is ALL they should do IMO....but sometimes and often they do a lousy job at "predicting"--and again that comes down to YOU as the trader have to decide for yourself and weigh the information for predictions..not what Joe Analyst is saying you should trade. As the trader when we plan we have the choice to agree, disagree or step back and watch..we are not FORCED to trade...but we have to force ourselves to learn for our own.. A good trader is one who makes their own decisions....they do not just follow the herd... In almost ANY decision you can weigh and view the two sides of a position and decide which you agree with or disagree with--that is often the Correct side...and when you cannot make a decision--you stay neitral and out of it until you can decide.

In reports and news I look at the levels they state and see what they see, and then ask myself if I would agree with it or not. Simple. If I do then perhaps I can build a trade on that and other info...if I disagree I can perhaps build an opposite trade based on info and other data I have found...or I can sit on the side and watch and wait for "my wave" that makes sense finally. As I said--not every analyst is "genius"... I've read a lot of "great" analysts whom I disagreed with--which has actually helped because I would then trade against them and many times I would be right...and the times when I was wrong--I would re-view their analysis to see what I missed or did not give enough consideration to.. Some 'analysts' are down right stupid but that can also be good--because there are some folks who blindly trade based on what an analyst "sez to do's". Which can be good because that could be telling me a lot of people are NOT reading things right..which may tell me its a bad time to try and trade this pair. But its information--take what is needed that you can use and discard the rest.

The one thing that really turned MY trading around was thoroughly dedicating and disciplining myself in making my own trading decisions which I trusted--which I was trusting and confident in because I researched or validated or found validation in and reasons to support. Took a lot of the emotion and worry and doubt out of it...because I could make 100 decisions in a day on trade ideas which may or may be half-assed or work or not....or I could do the work and weeding and weighing things and make 4 or 5 GOOD decisions which I felt were the best of the best ideas or had the highest probability of occurring...

Most analysts do trade--some do not...but what I am looking for when I read news reports and read analyst opinions is not for someone to tell me what to do--you do not read news and analyst reviews to be told what to do....I'm looking for information on which I can use and review and fact-check and consider which I can then base MY trading from. That is how you should approach it IMO....because ultimately its YOU that has to make and plan and believe in and trust your own trades. If you trade based on what someone else says for levels etc--you will get burned every time.... If you are trading and do not trust your trades--then you are just 'guessing' if you do not have validations and reasons for every trade and part of that trade in which you do....IMO...


-w
I agree completely about making your own decisions. I never did too well following other people's trading advice that is for sure. Not to mention I am far more comfortable risking my cash solely on my own opinions, right or wrong.
Do you find the information that states which banks are doing what accurate? That seems like really important information if it was. I know many times countries will step in, to keep prices at certain levels, for the benefit of their own country. I think when this is the case, they would not mind retail traders helping them out. Otherwise it seems like this information would be kept secret. I know of quite a few times some traders really banked in on some chf interventions to basically the pip on entry. I asked them how they knew the interventions were coming, and they wouldn't tell me.
post #666 of 956
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds View Post
I agree completely about making your own decisions. I never did too well following other people's trading advice that is for sure. Not to mention I am far more comfortable risking my cash solely on my own opinions, right or wrong.
Do you find the information that states which banks are doing what accurate? That seems like really important information if it was. I know many times countries will step in, to keep prices at certain levels, for the benefit of their own country. I think when this is the case, they would not mind retail traders helping them out. Otherwise it seems like this information would be kept secret. I know of quite a few times some traders really banked in on some chf interventions to basically the pip on entry. I asked them how they knew the interventions were coming, and they wouldn't tell me.

I read the reviews and the analyst reports--then I take what I have read and if something sticks important to me I will research it as best as possible--like read other analyst reports, google for news or press releases, or compare to historical similarities etc. I'm a very skeptical and cynical person--and I have little trust in me to give out naively. I always check and recheck and take everything sparingly that I am told...I'm always looking for answers behind the 'answers'...

Most bank information is disclosed properly tho IMO not 'entirely' complete..sometimes they skew info that gets released to focus on one thing while hiding or not playing up another part that may be critical--but most times you can find and read about that info to consider it....but how the analysts may interpret it and write about it however is always open ended--so you have to be ready to do research and look at various other opinions or reviews if you need to make good decisions. There are some bank interventions & influences out there when it comes to currency stability and a country's overall 'healthy' market from time to time...but its usually well known, historical enough to research past events, and pretty obvious when it occurs--the currency/bank IMO that does it most is the BOJ and their hold on the Yen..especially on the USD/JPY which is one reason I hate the pair and won't trade it... I prefer the cross pairs in which they pretty much let the insanity and volatility run amok..because their stability comes from the US moreso then other countries. IF the USD was to die Japan would be in turmoil. Japan does a lot of influence...and its often publicly known when the BOJ makes statements and commentary that is often seen or taken hugely for its implications or implied purpose to being said....but in that culture its not seen as "lies" or manipulation so much...its seen and viewed as a stabilization step and as a responsible business control practice that can be reliable and can be viewed as helpful to their economy to stay self sustaining and maintained..at least in appearances...


-w
post #667 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
I read the reviews and the analyst reports--then I take what I have read and if something sticks important to me I will research it as best as possible--like read other analyst reports, google for news or press releases, or compare to historical similarities etc. I'm a very skeptical and cynical person--and I have little trust in me to give out naively. I always check and recheck and take everything sparingly that I am told...I'm always looking for answers behind the 'answers'...

Most bank information is disclosed properly tho IMO not 'entirely' complete..sometimes they skew info that gets released to focus on one thing while hiding or not playing up another part that may be critical--but most times you can find and read about that info to consider it....but how the analysts may interpret it and write about it however is always open ended--so you have to be ready to do research and look at various other opinions or reviews if you need to make good decisions. There are some bank interventions & influences out there when it comes to currency stability and a country's overall 'healthy' market from time to time...but its usually well known, historical enough to research past events, and pretty obvious when it occurs--the currency/bank IMO that does it most is the BOJ and their hold on the Yen..especially on the USD/JPY which is one reason I hate the pair and won't trade it... I prefer the cross pairs in which they pretty much let the insanity and volatility run amok..because their stability comes from the US moreso then other countries. IF the USD was to die Japan would be in turmoil. Japan does a lot of influence...and its often publicly known when the BOJ makes statements and commentary that is often seen or taken hugely for its implications or implied purpose to being said....but in that culture its not seen as "lies" or manipulation so much...its seen and viewed as a stabilization step and as a responsible business control practice that can be reliable and can be viewed as helpful to their economy to stay self sustaining and maintained..at least in appearances...


-w
Thanks a lot wolf, appreciate the info. I, like you, am very untrusting Especially when it involves my money. I've heard also many many mannnny other traders who won't trade the U/J simply because of how manipulated it is. I will start doing some work and see what I can make of all of this "fundamental" stuff
post #668 of 956
Its been a while USDCAD traders, whats the scoop on a peak coming soon and move back to par in the coming months?
post #669 of 956
I've been watching this one, I think it might have topped out in the short term today.

post #670 of 956
I was hoping for another try at 1.07
post #671 of 956
Back in the 1.07 area now, but Im thinking the USD has one more leg to the upside.
post #672 of 956
Was this trip to 1.07 the final push? Starting to build short position here.
post #673 of 956
Nice trade Mr. Jock-e. I thought I went short last night too but I must have been dreaming. I'm looking to reverse this and go dollar long sometime today. Yesterday, (as far as I know), the big dollar sell off was because of a rumor that Greece was going to get bailed out. Today I read the headline,

"10 Feb 6:26:38 AM GREEK BAILOUT: Le Monde is reporting that a plan should be finalised today led by Germany following talks with the ECB."

which leads me to believe this could be one of those things where you buy the rumor and sell the news. So I'll most likely be on the sidelines or just making minor scalps until this gets released, then I'll probably go back to long dollar.
post #674 of 956
Thanks phatey!

1.058 now, going nicely.


Im stepping out here to see what the USD does next.
post #675 of 956
Yeah, nice trading. Took a loss myself few days back shorting this thing, just barely got my stop taken out. Hoping we see 1.04ish sometime this week, could be a good safe entry for some longs.
post #676 of 956
Im a bit conflicted with my trend ideas lately, perhaps one of you has some clarity.

Im looking for the USD to have an exhaustion rally, but Im also bearish on the market, and if the markets tank, their will be a flight to safety to the USD.

In what scenario could we see a market drop and a USD drop?
post #677 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
Im a bit conflicted with my trend ideas lately, perhaps one of you has some clarity.

Im looking for the USD to have an exhaustion rally, but Im also bearish on the market, and if the markets tank, their will be a flight to safety to the USD.

In what scenario could we see a market drop and a USD drop?
I don't think we will see that scenario. We can only prepare for what is most likely and have an exit plan when that doesn't happen right? Maybe you are conflicting because one of the two things you believe is going to happen--isn't. I don't think the markets are going to tank.... I think we see 9400-600 and a nice little rally, but after that I still remain bearish. When you say tank I think double dip, that scenario to me is unlikely. Projections beyond that are ill guessing. The dollar chart is probably going to look like the market chart we had the past 6 months, I mean we need some balance. So it will be just like that, dollar pulls back, market goes up, market goes down, we remain bearish but it's all healthy. What will be interesting is when the dollar is weak, how strong the EU can come across with all this crap news lately. That will be the hard trade IMO.
post #678 of 956
Bugger, should have kept that short on, I didnt expect 1.04 area so quickly.
post #679 of 956
Ya, quite the drop here. Going to wait and see on the longs. If some strong divergences start to form, I'll take my spot at the area I'm looking at. Otherwise I'll just let it go. Been burned to many times playing retrace plays where I'm just jumping in front of a train.
post #680 of 956
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds View Post
Ya, quite the drop here. Going to wait and see on the longs. If some strong divergences start to form, I'll take my spot at the area I'm looking at. Otherwise I'll just let it go. Been burned to many times playing retrace plays where I'm just jumping in front of a train.
Any updates on this one AAO?
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