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post #641 of 942
11/13/09 at 7:02pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
My feelings mislead me, the force is not strong this week.

I am expecting the markets to start pulling back, so logic dictates that the USD will gain strength as the fear trade comes back.

At the same time, the wave count on some pairs like USDCAD indicates another stab at lower levels.

Unless this whole dollar correlation trade gives up, one or the other has to take place.

Tail wagging the dog?

Or...the tail is actually stationary and its the dog that is wagging back and forth in space... As Yoda would say: Expect nothing--just observe and react..let the Force guide you, don't guide the Force.

I hear what you are saying about the Dollar correlation and all and the fear trades that should begin to emerge in the markets..and I actually agree that fear will take over again soon....but I don't think the currency markets will reverse this time around and give the USD a ton of strength. I know that is how it usually goes--but something is tapping me in the back of the head saying "uhh....not this time.."...

As confused and weird as everything has been acting for the past year--I just don't know if conventional thinking will continue to work in expectations.. Take a look for example at how NEWS releases used to really drive and spike the markets a few years ago--big news days sent the currency markets into huge swings and whipsaws...and in the past couple of years that has dwindled down a ton to where the spikes and moves are no longer as volatile or hugely influential as they once were.. I look at NFP fridays now and it seems hardly a fart in the wind sometimes based pretty much that the news report isn't seeming to reflect the general feeling or facts around it that may be in contradiction. Maybe its just me but I've been seeing a change happen in the currency markets the past few years I can't put a finger on--and I'm not sure what it is a sign of... That "xfactor" for surprise moves is not as huge or ground shattering as it once was...or perhaps I'm just so used to it I don't see it anymore..I dunno.... Do you notice anything?



I think this pair will do a sideways pattern and be rangebound for a while as we get to the holidays...it seems to be almost tired. It has to break the 1.08/1.09 mark now on the Daily to break the downtrend its been on and I dont' see where its going to do that yet with any long term change forecast... Guess we'll see what happens...


-w
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post #642 of 942
11/13/09 at 7:23pm
Yeah, the last NFP especially, what a dud that was. I remember watching the charts right as it was released, thinking, wtf did it happen yet? And sure enough it did, and I was sad.
I see the markets going higher personally. I'm looking for 10800 dow before I expect any major correction. To many good spots for the bears, and while they were meet with some selling, its really been pretty weak. Maybe just inexperience speaking, but this last week especially, really makes me think we are going higher.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
Or...the tail is actually stationary and its the dog that is wagging back and forth in space... As Yoda would say: Expect nothing--just observe and react..let the Force guide you, don't guide the Force.

I hear what you are saying about the Dollar correlation and all and the fear trades that should begin to emerge in the markets..and I actually agree that fear will take over again soon....but I don't think the currency markets will reverse this time around and give the USD a ton of strength. I know that is how it usually goes--but something is tapping me in the back of the head saying "uhh....not this time.."...

As confused and weird as everything has been acting for the past year--I just don't know if conventional thinking will continue to work in expectations.. Take a look for example at how NEWS releases used to really drive and spike the markets a few years ago--big news days sent the currency markets into huge swings and whipsaws...and in the past couple of years that has dwindled down a ton to where the spikes and moves are no longer as volatile or hugely influential as they once were.. I look at NFP fridays now and it seems hardly a fart in the wind sometimes based pretty much that the news report isn't seeming to reflect the general feeling or facts around it that may be in contradiction. Maybe its just me but I've been seeing a change happen in the currency markets the past few years I can't put a finger on--and I'm not sure what it is a sign of... That "xfactor" for surprise moves is not as huge or ground shattering as it once was...or perhaps I'm just so used to it I don't see it anymore..I dunno.... Do you notice anything?



I think this pair will do a sideways pattern and be rangebound for a while as we get to the holidays...it seems to be almost tired. It has to break the 1.08/1.09 mark now on the Daily to break the downtrend its been on and I dont' see where its going to do that yet with any long term change forecast... Guess we'll see what happens...


-w
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post #643 of 942
11/13/09 at 7:38pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds View Post
Yeah, the last NFP especially, what a dud that was. I remember watching the charts right as it was released, thinking, wtf did it happen yet? And sure enough it did, and I was sad.
I see the markets going higher personally. I'm looking for 10800 dow before I expect any major correction. To many good spots for the bears, and while they were meet with some selling, its really been pretty weak. Maybe just inexperience speaking, but this last week especially, really makes me think we are going higher.

It very well could...time will tell. Your argument is as valid as mine..I just can't shake off this "tapping" in the back of my head..warning me not to 'expect' too much except the unexpected to observe and react....


Again time will tell.



-w
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post #644 of 942
11/13/09 at 7:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
It very well could...time will tell. Your argument is as valid as mine..I just can't shake off this "tapping" in the back of my head..warning me not to 'expect' too much except the unexpected to observe and react....


Again time will tell.



-w
My gut feeling is a really poor trader unfortunately lol. Ya time will tell, should be interesting. I'm just hoping for some volatility really.
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post #645 of 942
11/13/09 at 11:41pm
What is NFP guys?
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post #646 of 942
11/14/09 at 3:44am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIBONACCI View Post
What is NFP guys?
NFP is short for the Non-Farm Payroll report--it is the most recent jobs and employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (also known as the 'BLS')...it comes out the first Friday of every month. It contains several critical numbers for employment and so forth that is typically looked at heavily. It is one of the KEY reports to know about for determining economic status. Here are some articles to familiarize yourself with it and why its important to the markets.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nonfarmpayroll.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answ...llandforex.asp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/...ary/-77335.cfm

-w
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post #647 of 942
11/15/09 at 11:21pm
Good evening traders, the dance floor is open, we begin with a little selling on USDCAD.
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post #648 of 942
11/15/09 at 11:27pm
yeah dollar opened pretty weak. futures on the indicies are yet to turn in a red candle on 5 minute. this is way too early to watch things i need the colts game to start to distract me
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post #649 of 942
11/16/09 at 6:36am
Come on USD/CAD... go to f***ing parity already!
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post #650 of 942
11/16/09 at 8:18am
Thread Starter 
Unless it significantly breaks 1.04 to trigger my next set of Short trades, I am betting on a sideways movement to drift up and down and start to develop a range here...it seems too early to test to 1.02 this week. But if it triggers my shorts, then all bets are off and I'm willing to play....

Watch the world oil prices this week for movement or correction (USD/CAD is effected by oil prices) and watch the USD Sales & Cad's CPI this week...IMO...


-w
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post #651 of 942
11/16/09 at 6:21pm
A nice pop into the 1.05 range on news that Bernanke was talking about the dollar in his speach this afternoon.

He didnt say anything decisive, but any mention was better than no mention, causing some short covering.
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post #652 of 942
11/17/09 at 4:58am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
A nice pop into the 1.05 range on news that Bernanke was talking about the dollar in his speach this afternoon.

He didnt say anything decisive, but any mention was better than no mention, causing some short covering.

The Fed has so ignored the US DOllar activity without care recently the fact that the Fed Chairman seems to remember there even IS A US DOlllar seems to give hope..



-w
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post #653 of 942
11/26/09 at 3:37am
Some wild swings tonight in all the pairs.

Noting that the USDCAD did not make a new low like the EURUSD made a new high.

This might be a good time to watch closely for some support levels and planning a play for the upside.
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post #654 of 942
11/26/09 at 7:58pm
Had a small long I got out of here, will wait for a signal for re-entry on the long side.
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post #655 of 942
12/2/09 at 4:40am
Thread Starter 
how are folks liking this range bouncing up and down here for the past 10-15 days or so... ? 1.07-1.04 is a nice range to be stuck in and play it simple..

We may see a violent swing break out of this range finally if the whole Dubai issue gets more hype going....but be careful that it may swing right back in if it does......still seems early for any definitive moves...but it seems ripe for a wild shakeout or two...could be a fun trade to trigger outside the range...

trade safe but trade smart..

-w
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post #656 of 942
12/2/09 at 4:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
how are folks liking this range bouncing up and down here for the past 10-15 days or so... ? 1.07-1.04 is a nice range to be stuck in and play it simple..

We may see a violent swing break out of this range finally if the whole Dubai issue gets more hype going....but be careful that it may swing right back in if it does......still seems early for any definitive moves...but it seems ripe for a wild shakeout or two...could be a fun trade to trigger outside the range...

trade safe but trade smart..

-w
I blame you for this ranging.... self fulfilling prophecy at work
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post #657 of 942
12/2/09 at 4:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
how are folks liking this range bouncing up and down here for the past 10-15 days or so... ? 1.07-1.04 is a nice range to be stuck in and play it simple..

We may see a violent swing break out of this range finally if the whole Dubai issue gets more hype going....but be careful that it may swing right back in if it does......still seems early for any definitive moves...but it seems ripe for a wild shakeout or two...could be a fun trade to trigger outside the range...

trade safe but trade smart..

-w
Whats your favorite pair for a USD short covering climb?
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post #658 of 942
12/2/09 at 5:05am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds View Post
I blame you for this ranging.... self fulfilling prophecy at work

Don't shoot the messenger....I just say it as I see it....

I'm the first to admit I'm not always right...I just try to be helpful....


-w
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post #659 of 942
12/2/09 at 5:10am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
Whats your favorite pair for a USD short covering climb?

FWIW I am watching the AUD/USD and the USD/CHF right now like a hawk...those 2 pairs are screaming ready to do something wild...IMO...


-w
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post #660 of 942
12/2/09 at 5:15am
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
Don't shoot the messenger....I just say it as I see it....

I'm the first to admit I'm not always right...I just try to be helpful....


-w
You do a great job. I try to help with what I know, but not nearly as thorough as you are. Good calls too, makes me think I should add a little fundamental knowledge to my trading. Where do you go to read about news articles that you find helpful? Or anything in particular you subscribe to that you find useful?
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