EUR/USD - Page 120

closed at 1.3291. there is too much data coming out this morning and I have class in 30 min so I wont be able to watch it. I got all my losses back from my last 2 loss trades so I cant complain

Good work on the 80 pips matt.

Short at 3248, 5k position, stops at 1.3390, at 1.3320 a 30 pip trail stop will go into effect, charts are showing saying short this thing hard anywhere near 1.3300, with stops at 1.3360, for a target of new lows.

Scratch the trailing stop, just too much profit on the day not to walk away and go to work. Ahh i hate manual labor!

Closed to buy at 1.3220 for a 28pip gain and $12 profit after $2 in commissions.

You can live on this (daily) in some countries...just make sure you have net access!

Good work!

Dang, im not happy I missed on that move down because I had to go learn about currecy risk in my international econ class. I dont think my opportunity cost was worth it

So tomorrow is the FOMC meeting. There is talk that they might take out "for an extended period" from the statement. If that were to happen, what would the do the the EUR/USD? Im still trying to learn how all the different news statements affect the currecy. Especially in this market, the text book theorys I learn dont always become true. I just wanted an idea before it happens so i dont get screwed...Thanks

and there goes 1.32! fresh new lows here

What the heck countries are you talking about?

I'm not catching the EU, but I did catch the GU and I'm still short with the other half of my position. Risk appetite is GONE. The equity markets plunged today too, looks bad. I'd highly suggested shorting any rallies here on the EU with stops placed in the middle of the last range we traded in.

haha good to know.
I guess i payed for the months internet too today, up $42 on the day or a little over 60 pips, one of my bigger overall gains on the day. I scalped another 10 pips from long at 184 to sell at 194 a little while ago.
Im going to say im done for the day but who knows what i'll see.

I think im going to start using less leverage for a little while until i find a bug in my strategy. It's working too good to be true it seems. I haven't had a real red day yet just break evens, and im up almost 100% from around 30 trades in 8 business days. Any input on how to not let this get to my head? Right now im just trying my hardest not to overtrade or take bad set-up's.

IMO, I think if they pulled extended period we would see 1.3000 just to hit a round number that low, unless some hedge fund knows/expects they are saying that and shorted more today to extend the downside, so they could have someone to buy from the other half of their position too tomorrow as it tries to touch new lows, triggering a short cover rally to the 3300's and then the real downside.
Thats just the thing though, anything can happen, but im bitter on fed days, my biggest loss on the day ever was on a fed day in october where i discovered the risk with of using options for leverage. Lost like 25% of my account, and that was when i had a decent amount of money. .

Thats why i avoid news releases by checking on babypips.com every time in advance.

Not with this type of fear in the market. This is the "contagion" everyone's been talking about. If you listen to baby pips and dailyfx (the likes) they would be telling you to go long above 1.34 and set a 100 pip stop loss, bullshit. Those web sites are run for ad space. Newbie trap. This is called a fear trade, as long as headlines stay shitty this has no chance back at the 1.33 range. I'm in at a 1/4 of my normal position short from 3196 so if it does rally I'm adding again, this has clearly broke range and is going to parity. Europe is burning. This is a crap currency, and the dollar strength versus it will be pronounced for the next few years, mark my words.

Thanks, I know playing this kind of news is pretty risky but I think as long as you have a general idea of what it will do it has potential to make a lot of money.

My plan for today is to get a short position right around this level at 1.324 and as long as im up 15-30 pips before the 2pm when they anounce it I will hold through it. I will let a 40 pip SL above my original position and then sit back and see where we go...

EDIT: I missed my target entry by 15pips but ill still take it... Short at 1.3226

Just a heads up, if my study keeps holding true, we should see 204-208 in the next 30 minutes, where a spike back to the 220 very possible and even a test of 1.3270 before 1PM central. If the current hourly closes below 3200, you may be in business to Sell on Rumor and Buy on news.

15 min early but ill take it! up 20 pips right now. If we stay at this level or continue lower ill be a happy camper around 2pm.

What are you using to determin that target and time? If you dont mind me asking

I agree with 100% of that post.
What i was saying is anything can happen.

Just made bank on the downgrade! sold out most for profits...now i have to re-evaluate my plan for the fed

I use Ichikomu to look at possible outcomes on multiple time frames, and compare each Possible outcome to one I see on another time frame. Ichikomu also seems to be the study that speaks to me as Wolf has said. Ichikomu has that projected cloud that can really help with judging times, but most of the time frame judging is like, "well for this candle on the hourly to do this, the 15min needs to do this by when."

Oh and the cloud is also a great momentum indicator on its own, but ichi is suppose to always be read with the same emphasis on each line.

And good work on your nice profit matt. That was a quick one.
Wish i would have been home to watch that hourly close under 1.3200 and take an entry short term.

That is pretty interesting, im going to have to do some more reading on it after the fed news. Thanks

I just look another short at 1.3159, a smaller postion than I was planning on before the downgrade because I think some of the downward potential is lower since we already dropped but im still going to see if I can get at least 30-40 pips off the news.


EDIT: got stopped out at 3175. boring trade. time to enjoy the nice weather

This erratic confusion and uncertain confidence will hopefully figure itself out soon.... Remember that TIME & PATIENCE is on the Traders side for advantage...while impatience and haste makes losses & waste... Hey that last part rhymes..




-w

Words of wisdom.

Impatience and haste cost me a majority of yesterdays great gains today in 2 single trades. I don't know how many times i told myself last night not to try to trade the fed news today. Also didnt trade off my strategy, but instead used it for placing my stops only, which was way more than i should have risked.
But on a good note i traded smaller position sizes like i said i should last night.