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EUR/USD - Page 117

post #2321 of 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182 View Post
How are your shorts looking Wolf?

Hi Sam,

It took bloody forever on this one but my short target was finally (tho it seems just barely) hit at 1.3485 and I got my first TP out... That was a long hold for just about 163-ish pips all mish mashed together...I usually don't mind as couple of days holding--but geez this thing dragged itself out kicking and screaming...

I closed and exited completely now that one target was hit--its Friday--I hate trading on Friday...and I'm not gonna carry it over the weekend to see IF it heads to my second 1.3415 target.. Since I exited it probably will now with all due speed....

Maybe next week it will have fixed itself better.. This pair needs an enema to shake it loose again and I'm not gonna sit around waiting for it anymore when I could be playing in other pairs that aren't so constipated and 'stuck'..


-w
post #2322 of 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rossj711 View Post
Wolf care to share your MM strategy? I'm never risking more than three percent on each trade. I am slow steady account gainer, averaging about seven to ten percent a month. Three days until my next trading month closes and if I sit be I'll be at about six percent for this month.

Are you using a hundred pit sl all the time? I do often, but I'm beginning to mold a different style of more buying or shorting into a move with a smaller stop size and a larger lot. Let me know what kind of experiences you have with this.

Howdy... I always suggest people need to set their risk and MM to your comfort zone--someone else may be more aggressive or risky then you prefer or can do...or they may be more conservative. You know your accounts and comfort zone better then I do. But FWIW I try to do 3-5%ish risk max on any one trade and my R:R is usually 1:1, 1:1.5 or 1:2--meaning in example if the chart is prime and right in levels and the pair can do it, then sure I'll risk 100 pips to make 100, or 140 or 200+ pips back... It depends on the trade for where I set my stop and IF the target I expect it to make is right for timing the entry..

My stops are based on the pair, and on what I believe the target could make AND where the Support and Resistance lines are for the pair, and whats driving it and how it moves typically. So no--I don't always use 100-pip stops for everything...I may use 80 or 60 or I may use 100 or 150--it depends on my trade/target and the pair. Its insane to use a 100 pip stop all the time especially if its only to make 40 pips in a trade--if you doubt that logic--then I'll trade you a crisp new $20 bill for your wrinkly old $100 bill and we'll call it square. If you can only feel you can make 40 pips in a trade but you HAVE to risk 100 for stop--then something is wrong--you either missed it altogether, or you're not confident in your trade plan and are misreading the chart...or you are just are late in your timing for entry or trying to chase....or you're wrong in your view of the trade capability and, to me, such a trade is not worth taking and too risky to begin with. Be OK with telling yourself in such a win40 / risk100 trade that you are wrong...cuz ya are. The trade is unbalanced and favors the market--not the trader and you need to find as close possible BALANCE in your trading the markets. It will save you from losses later if you learn to break that cycle now.

Now yes some pairs NEED a wide stop for general fluidity cause they swing so much (crosspairs usually) and will give you a big reward if you are on the right side of the trade at the right time and are willing to wait... But the key there is timing your entry and recognizing the S&R areas key to the pair at the time and making those your stop, target and validation points. If you feel you are 100% right--then certainly wait it out for the market to give it to you for set up--time is the Traders ally in Forex...its not a race.

I try to limit myself to usually 2-3 open trades max at any one time, so at any one time I'm not risking more then I consider a 'safe' loss if they all suddenly decide to tank--but per trade its tried to be limited to 3-5% my account which some say is too much but for me it works....tho admittedly I do get sloppy on that sometimes and end up with 8% on the table ....but I've learned a LOT over the years and if I believe my plan has considered all the factors--I may bend my rules slightly if its worth it.. Of course I do have losing trades as everyone does...just probably not as many cause I'm not trading a ton...I am super picky about my trades trying to find only the highest probability trades that will work out based on my criteria--and because of that I am not in 2-3 trades every day of every week.. Be a selective opportunist. I am a mid term trader--which means I will hold a position open anywhere from a few hours to a few days or even a week and not get bugged over it.. I don't scalp or play the fast trades tryin to make a quickie win--that is a losing strategy I beat to death trying and it doesn't work at least for me....go for quality trades, not quantity trades...its all in my motto of trade safe and trade smart.

I try and look for and wait for what I view as optimum trade plans to occur and set up--I wait for them to form and I basically get in and not fuss with it--ride it out til I get stopped or it hits my target for the most part is my rule....which means I may not trade every day or even for a whole week if the charts are all crap to me....or I may have 2-3 or so trades per day going for a solid week if things are screaming... BUT by having such a rule it forces me to be super picky & critical with the trades I select when I am looking at charts and news/catalysts... I only had 4 trades played this week...this EUR/USD pair which took far too long from my analysis....I also had a EUR/JPY goin a couple times with a short making one pip target a big win, but the second target failed and stopped me out...as well as I played my favorite Parity game with the USD/CAD.. Really only 4 trades for a week--doesn't sound like much but to me it was decent for 400+ pips in a week... Big thing too many traders do wrong IMO is they think they have to take a bazillion trades or have trades goin on 5 pairs every stinkin day--they don't... The one thing I learned long ago the hard way in Forex is if you want to do it--you have to learn to Trade Safe and Trade Smart...which simply means planning and discipline.



-w
post #2323 of 6004
Need a close below .3460 on the hourly to confirm more downside on my char. trying to hold it above right now, kinda volatile price action these last couple minutes of this hour. I think i'll probably wait for tomorrows action to see what it brings before i make any plays.
post #2324 of 6004
I'm sensing this may want to dip into the 1.33 range for a while....lots of the indicators seem so confused it almost looks exhausted...if it is exhausted--the the USD wins out of default even if only briefly. Have to see how it reacts in London in a couple hours...




-w
post #2325 of 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf825 View Post
I'm sensing this may want to dip into the 1.33 range for a while....lots of the indicators seem so confused it almost looks exhausted...if it is exhausted--the the USD wins out of default even if only briefly. Have to see how it reacts in London in a couple hours...

That's a really helpful comment for me wolf, thank you!
post #2326 of 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIBONACCI View Post
That's a really helpful comment for me wolf, thank you!
As for me, also read the same some other places.

I just had a successful scalp with entry at 3460 and exit at 467 for 7 pips, figured they'd try to close this hourly candle above 3460 also, and they did with success.

with the greek bond auction on thursday morning 3300 may well be within reach.
post #2327 of 6004
arrrrggg... didnt get that last hourly close above the 26period average, which would have been good confirmation for a free ride to test 3500 before the asian session, still in play with stops below 3460. Do have a short term bullish cross on the 30min though. My sell target is in the red box clearly visible. Bought at 3473.

Edit:ABC up on the 15min has a 1.5003 target.
post #2328 of 6004
Riley nice color setup there on TOS, your charts are a little crazy for me but to each their own

Bond auctions are the next story, for now it's found some support and also is still chillin above the monthly downtrend line

post #2329 of 6004
Hmm im fairly upset with Think or Swim right now. I used their comission based forex to establish a smaller position size since im using real money, and now the commision based bid ask is not reflecting spot data, where my limit order should have already filled to close me out of my position..
post #2330 of 6004
Well finally out of that ordeal, with only like $4 profit on a 27pip call.
Basically ToS's commission based forex shut down completely, bid/ask stopped while i watched the spot data run passed my sell at 1.3488, ended up selling right when it opened back up and began quoting correctly at 1.3485, at like 45mins on the hour, only thing is i sold 10k instead of the 7k i was long, putting me short 3k, as it bounced back over 490 for the last 15 minutes. Its not that the 3k move against hurt me, but the commissions on closing it kinda cut in my bottom line on the day.
Just frustrating as i watched my call play out perfectly and used proper money management only to end up so little.




Sorry for the size anyone who doesn't want to see my complaint. I still haven't decided whether i want to try to negotiate the fills with ToS or not, its only cost me like $8 in the end, $3 of those completely my mistake by putting in the order for the wrong amount. but $8 is a decent days gain for this account. Im thinking brush it off and only use spot forex, its always been reliable.
post #2331 of 6004
Wow! I didn't realize they went live with Forex....I really wouldn't suggest trading with them yet, especially scalping they are new to this. I've even noticed false candlesticks on the forex platform too--not good.
post #2332 of 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rossj711 View Post
Wow! I didn't realize they went live with Forex....I really wouldn't suggest trading with them yet, especially scalping they are new to this. I've even noticed false candlesticks on the forex platform too--not good.
ToS has offered spot forex for over a year, and I've yet to notice any false candlesticks in the spot charts and have never had a problem with real time fills. On the commission based forex that has been around for 4-5months, today was the first discrepancy i have seen. Commission based has separate charts and everything, and apparently operates on its own server. I guess the server was completely down for about an hour today.
I've compared the ToS spot data to Prophet charts(different server), and Oanda real time with the only discrepancies being in the spread. Im sure someplace in time there has been candle errors but not having back flow or backup order routing on the commission based side is something to worry about. I will not be using commission based forex for awhile i'm sure.
post #2333 of 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by RileyR569 View Post
ToS has offered spot forex for over a year, and I've yet to notice any false candlesticks in the spot charts and have never had a problem with real time fills. On the commission based forex that has been around for 4-5months, today was the first discrepancy i have seen. Commission based has separate charts and everything, and apparently operates on its own server. I guess the server was completely down for about an hour today.
I've compared the ToS spot data to Prophet charts(different server), and Oanda real time with the only discrepancies being in the spread. Im sure someplace in time there has been candle errors but not having back flow or backup order routing on the commission based side is something to worry about. I will not be using commission based forex for awhile i'm sure.
4-5 months? I did not know that. Well on the platform I've used I have noticed false candles mostly on the 4 hour charts. Why are you choosing to trade spot forex?
post #2334 of 6004
I almost always trade spot, but i didn't want a position that big so i used the commission based. Spots just much cheaper on ToS. For comission based is $1 per10,000 of the base currency, so commission on 1k is still $1entry and $1exit.

On another note, if this thing will graze above 1.3500, i might enter a medium term short position.


Edit: Took the short at 1.3485 at about 25 past the hour. Seeing more selling pressure.
post #2335 of 6004
Gotcha. I'm tuning into the equity markets at the moment playing the currencies. I will probably short this pair if the market takes a quick up tomorrow based on any earnings calls for my strategy in a synopsis. This one has correlated beautifully inversely with the dollar
post #2336 of 6004
Just covered my short at my target of 1.3465 for a 20 pip gain.
post #2337 of 6004
Riley,
Could you explain why you shorted at 1.35?
Just trying to understand.
Were you using RSI or Sto and realized some selling pressure? and or did you think there was some resistance at 1.35 because if the gap up on apr 11 and thats why you shorted?
I know on my charts on the hourly i had a downward trendline that was established, then on Apr 11 it breakout of that trendline at 1.35.
post #2338 of 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo1128 View Post
Riley,
Could you explain why you shorted at 1.35?
Just trying to understand.
Were you using RSI or Sto and realized some selling pressure? and or did you think there was some resistance at 1.35 because if the gap up on apr 11 and thats why you shorted?
I know on my charts on the hourly i had a downward trendline that was established, then on Apr 11 it breakout of that trendline at 1.35.
1.35 is just a heavy S&R level for the euro, and i didnt actually short until we were down to **85 when it looked like they wanted to try to 3460 for support. The indicators i use personally had a clear shot at us hitting 3460 in the near future so i took the play.
post #2339 of 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by dailyfx.com
20 Apr 11:23:04 AM $EURUSD SSI likewise building increasingly net-long at 1.54 traders long for every short. Contrarian signal to go short.
Read more: Real Time Forex News http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/#ixzz0legX62Xh

Looks like a clear short play here.


post #2340 of 6004
Quote:
Originally Posted by phatey View Post
Read more: Real Time Forex News http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/#ixzz0legX62Xh

Looks like a clear short play here.



If they juice it back into the 50's at the end of this hour i may take a short with a stop above 465. Tgt 3415.
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