CAT - Caterpillar - Page 7

What what happens to 90 to 75 stocks in a bull market?

They go to $120 via $75

........and $55 in a bear market.

hitting lows of the day.....

Might be time to buy some CAT I subsribe to the Times of Central Asia articule from the latest edition:

(Turkmenistan, August 29,2007- issue #460)
ASHGABAT (TCA) - President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has signed a resolution allowing the Water Ministry to buy 265 pieces of equipment and parts worth $36.6 million.

Contracts will be signed with Zeppelin International AG, the official dealer for Caterpillar equipment in Turkmenistan for 100 excavators and parts worth $15.3 million, and with Yarav Trading House (Kyrgyzstan) for 100 bulldozers, 50 scrapers, five gasoline tankers, five trailers, and parts worth $21.3 million

Looks like business may be improving with the growth in China and Central Asia.

Agreed. IMO, its always been time to buy CAT but to many people are holding this down but once we start getting those new orders, people will flee and this stock will hit $100 where it should be.

To large of a float so it not as movabe as some of its peers such as TRN.

yes CAT is huge and add TEX

CAT will be a big winner if there is a rate cut. I think it is helped out by both the weakened dollar and a potential rebound in building a rate cut would bring. Bought some Nov 72.5 calls for $5. Would like to see her bounce to $85-90 in the next month.

new high before end of year

I bought a $75.00 straddle on this one today. I think we're going over $90.00 in a month or so.

I would have stayed away from CAT and been here, anyone of these in that sector.
DE
BUCY
JOYG
MTW

Might be right. Let's see what transpires in a month or so.

EPS at 1.40, below expected EPS at 1.43.....but only about a 2 - 3% difference, and much better than surprise losses in the past. CAT has had some pretty bad earnings reports in the past, so this seems like a push. I don't see the stock falling below 75 today, and should be able to make back any losses easily within a few weeks.

Out at 76.25 for a 2 point loss. Very indecisive right now, and there are plenty of other stocks to make money off of today. Still a good long term hold IMHO.

TEX instead of CAT.

Details from ongoing conference call:

On call co notes this was the best quarter ever for sales and earnings per share... sales and revenues were positively effected by currency changes but costs also rose... sales volume and price realization were strong... expect GDP of approx 1.5% for the year, below current expectations; expect to see more Fed cuts but do not believe it will help the economy; says see 2008 as being one of the worst years in the history of housing... says outside the U.S. seeing solid growth.

everything he said is probably true related to the US. The fed is trying to stop the falling knife, but you can't turn this boat around in one cut, housing is in the shitter for a while because of massive overbuilding and because loan programs allowed much more housing to be bought at much higher prices. With the 30 year fixed and required down payment becoming the norm, home sales will be normalized to before the boom and below it. Any bailout involving monetizing the dollar is going to exacerbate the economic woes as we've seen oil spike (directly related to rate cut). The fed can't get something for nothing.

So far CAT has made for a great straddle. Another big down day would be perfect. The rising volume helps too!

The only thing better would have been for it to have shot up rather than down, but the large swing in price is quite nice.

Looks like we are hitting the lower support level here. Might sell my put end of the straddle here and purchase an OOM put for more protection. Basically, lock in some profits.