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SLV - Silver ETF & Silver Futures - SI - Page 157

post #3121 of 3743

I have got a lift now. I am still holding a few next weekly calls bought by mistake.laughing.gif and hold by force.laughing.gif .

post #3122 of 3743

I'm holding few Oct 35 calls. Bought this morning - already down more than 30% percent  frown.gif     

 

Will wait and see how things shape up next week before taking the losses.

post #3123 of 3743

wow, how nice. thank you dollar.

post #3124 of 3743

laughing.gif

 

That was pretty bad, now I remember why I haven't played with options in a while.  At EOD I bought an Oct strangle so hopefully it moves hard one way or the other preferably up. 

post #3125 of 3743
Not to mention AGQ guys. The 2X ETF proxy for Silver was down over 28% today, at one point probably down about 34-36%. To give a feel for the enormous power of leveraged ETF decay during periods of high volatility, consider this. Imagine if on Monday Silver snaps back to recoup precisely the entire loss from today, obviously AGQ should rise just about 28% (you have to allow wiggle room due to issues with I think the NAV adjusting over time), let's assume the gain is exactly the same as the loss today. Well, $118.64 x 1.2814 (28.14% gain) brings AGQ to about $152.03. But AGQ finished Thursday at $165.10, meaning that amazing volatility would cost AGQ holders $13.07, or about 7.9%, just for two days of sideways action. That's expensive!
post #3126 of 3743

Can`t believe how easily silver cut through all its support. Going to 25 at some point. Deflation kicking in to high gear.

post #3127 of 3743
Quote:
Originally Posted by ze20001984 View Post

anyone else holding calls? or taking losses?

 

 



I exited with a 5% loss today on them SLV shares and calls frown.gif I was expecting a bounce of some sort but that just did not happen. Did not play out well for me with Silver today frown.gif There were definitely some big invisible hands that pressured this MTF down today.

 

post #3128 of 3743
Quote:
Originally Posted by moss_sumit View Post

I'm holding few Oct 35 calls. Bought this morning - already down more than 30% percent  frown.gif     

 

Will wait and see how things shape up next week before taking the losses.



Don't feel too bad. You are not alone with today's losses. I lost quite a bit with Silver today. frown.gif Sorry to hear about your losses as well.

post #3129 of 3743

someone knew this was coming beforehand ...

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903791504576589221715678498.html

 

at least now we know the reason for this huge drop .. IMO a great buying opp longterm

 

"Gold margins will be raised by 21%, silver margins by 16%, and copper margins by 18%, effective at the close of trading Monday, CME said in an email after trading closed Friday."

post #3130 of 3743

i expect a 25-27 consolidation before it moves back up. Even though gold made new highs previously, this didnt and only mustered the strength to stay range bound. gives an idea of the demand.

post #3131 of 3743

“In the case of the euro area, we have the capacity as a central bank to provide liquidity on an unlimited basis and at fixed rate" ----A comment from Trichet at the IMF meeting over the weekend

 

I think Friday's drop in metals is coming mainly from Fed. Gold reached to the alarming level and not liked by governments as it is posing threat to currencies. Imagine what will happen if they have to announce more printing in global currencies to help banks and gold is at 1900+. It would jump to 2200+ quickly. So, they might have coordinated to take down gold. Banks need capital soon and printing seems to be the way they can manage in the short term. When this happens, gold will get back to where it was instead of making new highs. Just something to contemplate.

 

And as a reminder, the August 1 CME margin hike worked... for about 30 minutes...

Seems all big guys knows about it..not even a small drop after this news release..already factored in I guess.. GLD is up $1.50 after hours.

This gives me hope that GLD and SLV may rally next week since this news is already factored in.

 

I posted when SLV was around 29.70 and even repeated a couple of times that it hit the bottom, hoping someone will benefit from itbiggrin.gif

I still feel pretty strong about it...Probably going to climb back to 36 area next week..Right now its at 30.20..Volumes on charts (GLD and SLV) are showing clear bottomed out patterns and MACD is giving BUY signal.

 

I am placing 90% confidence that SLV hit the short term bottom on Friday. Take a look at similar historical volumes (find the days with a huge red volume bar) and what happened next. August 24th is a good example along with many others. Almost every single time in the history when volume reached this high with a major drop, it bottomed out and started the rally..

 

I am holding 32 strike October calls over the weekend..entered when its around 31.2..

 

 

 

 

post #3132 of 3743

Its very clear the big guys knew about this early but everyone just found out about it.  I agree with MJOKE that this settles around the 25-26 range within a week or two, because what incentive is there for the big guys to step in and buy now... everyone else who didn't know will be selling into next week and it seems only logical that they would wait until after all that selling is done so they buy back in as low as possible.  Silver and Gold both have some normalizing to do after this massive smack down... then it can begin to recover in a few weeks.  JMO

post #3133 of 3743

The whole action Friday screamed institutional dumping. Likely they were dumping the last few days. That last drop caught alot of people. I think it will likely take a bit of time to settle like it did in April when they purposely played around with the price with those margin calls.

 

With all the currency craziness I can see people looking at the precious metals as a safe haven that has not come back down in a firesale. I have not see too many calling this a bubble like they have either since the stockmarket "bubble" got hit at the same time.

 

Time will tell.

post #3134 of 3743

how will the US will escape this debt problem without printing more money? i dont think they can. And you know what printing money does to gold/silver...

 

if anything I see this sell off in precious metals as a signal for the feds to print more money. Remember its extremely difficult for them to do more QE (or print more money) while gold and silver are at record high prices (as many people see gold/silver price as an inflation tracker). With that said, I would be extremely careful to go long here unless a catalyst comes along...

post #3135 of 3743

While that sounds logical, it flies in the face of reality. Both GLD and SLV gained 1% AFTER the margin hike news was made public. It is more likely that GLD and SLV gain on Monday, MACD is giving a buy signal and historical volume patterns strongly suggest of a recovery in the next week and after hours action on Friday confirms it. Moreover, I have seen some gold cult websites that are spreading possible Greece default news as a positive for Gold as people have more reasons to dump currencies. It looks like regardless of good or bad news from Europe, gold and silver are poised to climb. JMO

 

As a consequence of this, if GLD gains, it means dollar loses, which means markets would climb, and hence I am bullish on the market as well for Monday. I could be wrong but the probability is pretty low. Lets see.
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lago View Post
Everyone else who didn't know will be selling into next week and it seems only logical that they would wait until after all that selling is done so they buy back in as low as possible.


 

post #3136 of 3743

My inner conviction tells me that this will be like April.

post #3137 of 3743

That was spectacular Thurs - Fri. I frequent a website for firearms, shooting sports and survival related things for folks with homes in the Carolinas.. Anyway these guys think they can eat silver and gold and are all convinced silver will be worth hundreds of dollars an ounce any week. To say the least they are straight up tripping right now. Name calling, crying, jumping out of windows, I told you so's, it'll be worth $50 by next Fri, it's a conspiracy, Obama's fault and so on and so on. It is fantastic reading. I'm gonna watch Monday go out of character and try to play a funny money bounce next week. This is exciting.

post #3138 of 3743
Quote:
Originally Posted by wliv32503 View Post

My inner conviction tells me that this will be like April.



I read an article last week that said you're gut instinct has merit. I wish I could find it. That said I don't know what happened in April. Welcome to the HSM asylum.

post #3139 of 3743

I think banks dumped a huge position in Gold and Silver. Notice how Bank shares climbed as Gold and Silver tanked. Pretty sure Banks needed cash so they dumped. I see Bank shares climbing on Monday and more down side now to Silver as the major resistance at $32 was broken.

post #3140 of 3743

LOL well, in the 20+ years i have been tracking metals and commodities , that was the biggest takedown in 2 days on nearly any commodity , the 25% drop in silver. Anyone who believes this is a supply/demand issue affecting the price needs to have their head examined. Central banks and hedge funds in europe, got some warning in advance that  another margin increase was in the works, and took this opportunity to  dump and short silver. Open interest on the comex did not signal any big move in silver in the report preceding the takedown. The selloff began on the LME and picked up steam on the CRIMEX.

This did appear as tho stops were hit hard , and of course that exaggerated the selloff.  Lets see what ASIA does tonite, i suspect they will believe this a huge buying opportunity. THERE physical buying of gold and silver is huge, and part of the culture. IN Europe and North America, very few even believe silver and gold worth buying. 

I am hoping silver does drop under the 30$ US price, and will be loading up some physical, real coins and bars. I dont believe SLV is a safe vehicle for buying silver. Just my distrust of JPM as the custodian of SLV's silver. JPM still the biggest short on silver , and this really is the fox guarding the henhouse.

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