Oil : USO - USL - CL futures and oil ETF discussion - Page 3

ya, check out what happened the last few times we had a candle like that after a period of consolidation, it went boom.
I'm still bullish, until it breaks support and closes below 104 - 105

No doubt, like I said this isn't bearish till proven so. It's still holding that box and anything can happen. The paper markets need oil to fall, if they are to recover that is.

It did auction down in after/pre market though volume is always light then so ya never really know what to expect when the volume comes in.

Let's see.

Quite an interesting testimony from Michael Masters (Masters Capital Management, LLC).

http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf

*Just in case* oil falls, you may want to hedge by loading up the beaten down refiners (SUN, VLO, TSO, WNR, HOC) and/or airlines. I personally think it's better than loading up DUG. Check out the holdings in DUG to see why. It's also a good thing to keep an eye on the 3-2-1 crack spread too. Does demand justify the rapid price increase? I don't know. I honestly can't answer that. But certainly in part, Bernanke helped oil go higher with the lower interest rate. Paulson's strong dollar policy is nothing but talk. Goldman's 2008-Q2 profit was up due to commodity investing, so the testimony above might have some truth in it. But who knows, oil may go higher from here before it heads lower.

The interesting thing is: I still remember early this year before gold went to $1000, headlines like "Blackouts suspend South African gold mining" was a hot topic, but since gold fell from that level, I've hardly heard things that prop up gold (except the $1650 gold Jim Sinclair bet). Now we're still hearing things like "Nigerian militant step up oil attacks"

What a flip-flop. Last week (or was it 2 weeks ago?), they said it was gonna go to $150 by July

Talk about rug pulling.

LOL, yeah they are part of the sham indeed. Makes you go hrmmm.

Well, I'm not sure that's accurate. From their earnings release:

"Net revenues in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) were $2.38 billion, 29% lower than the second quarter of 2007"

They lost the most in Fixed, Curr and Comm altogether. They wouldn't have bundled a winner with two losers so I'm inclined to believe that even though they didn't separate commodity rev's they are relatively low.

Yesterdays volume profile was incredibly balanced. I'm finding that most times after such a tight balancing day the next direction chosen will have lots of emotion and movement so watch her today for some possible crazy moves.

There's that open gap down at just below $104 that could suck price down if the island is broken to the downside.

Gonna test the lower channel today

oil should go higher...

a draw in inventories is a draw... no matter what estimates are...

and we have seen some big draws in the last month and no build...

fundamentals are starting to show their true colors

Let's watch. That island breaking either way should have some very nice momentum, I'll be noting the volume on a break especially.

I also note the volume by price...it's rather lopsided and that adds to my feelings of a correction if not reversal. I'm not picking a top, seen way too many fail at that game, but on weekly and other TA I run I have my bias.

I wish this thing would just bust through 113.00 and get it over with, lol

Or tank like I'm calling for.

Awful lot of hesitation on both sides up here though. LETS GO!!!

Looking for some serious downside tests of support after this oil number.

Nice dip so far today...lets see that island break down.
Good luck on your short.

you guys should check the oil inventory every week...

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/p...t/txt/wpsr.txt


i dont think u guys understand why oil is where it is...

last few weeks there has been many draws or declines...


today i think there was 800 000 build... which is peanuts...

You're right, and that link ain't helping someone as slow as me.

Could you screen shot and maybe point out what parts to focus on in that report?

Thanks

If there is one thing to understand about oil its that it will act independently of any logic.

and there we have it folks, 113+.
Now, let's see if it can close near HOD.

Not convinced yet...tomorrow will probably be the day to either fall off hard or be the nail in the coffin for the paper markets. We are at a pivotal time in the markets IMO.

There was CLEAR selling pressure after lunch. That is of course no guarantee of a correction.

I can't wait to watch tomorrow.

Today 05:36pm
(US) House approves bill which requires the CFTC to curb immediately excessive energy market speculation

- The vote in favor of the bill was 402 to 19.
- The bill allows the CFTC to use its emergency powers to lower speculation and gives the regulator the ability to look at over-the-counter markets.
- The emergency powers would also give the CFTC more power to examine overseas trading and exchanges.
- Steps taken by the CFTC could range from increasing margin requirements to temporarily shutting down energy markets.
- The US Senate is expected to take up the bill in July, at the earliest.
- The bill could also face a veto threat by President Bush.