im reading SHLD going private as the main reason for the rise....
Yep, I said they meaning the company itself assuming they had the cash or else private equity--either way, the shares would be bought up from all the common holders. I don't see it happening anywhere near this price.
I was messing around with the chart and transposed the recent portion up to fill in the gap when it fell. It's probably doesn't mean much but I thought it was interesting. I'm hoping that there is something to it, as it would suggest we just topped out. I think tomorrow will tell us a lot.
I planned on selling during todays low point, but then I had to actually do some work so I wasn't able to pay attention to it. I got finished after the markets closed and was, well, any number of adjectives could fit here. It's a valuable lesson, but I'm trying to take notes on everything I did wrong. I'm keeping a trading journal in my notebook so that it's something I can look back on. When you cut out I would have taken about a 250 loss, which I didn't want to take, now that sounds amazing. I got into the trade without setting a loss limit. I didn't switch my outlook to bullish to go with the trend, I kept thinking it should come down. Hindsight is 20/20 but I could have played this much better. When it got down to around 66 on Wed I held, I assumed we were seeing a least a little bit of a pullback and I didn't need much more to even out, another 1.50 or so. I sold my calls the first time it got up to around 72, I made profit on them but I'm still way out. I thought that would be the peak and I'd do allright catching both ends. I thought about getting back into some calls the last day or two, but the options are expensive as hell now, the thetas are high, and the stock wasn't being predictable. If it just held around 68-69 and I bought 70/72.5 calls I would have been even more screwed. I assume, and still do, that it will come down from 76 or whatever it's at now. Sigh...
If anything I thought it was going to stay in that high 60s range, because if you look at STX, another company which Eddie Lampert owns shares in (9 million), you'll see a similar pattern in the late december rise. I thought it might fade slightly up like STX did.
My breakeven right now is between 63.5 and 58.5 at expiration. Not feeling too good about that, but hell how much higher can this go? I can't bring myself to put more money down on it rising,
I could buy 2 80 strike puts and be even if it hits 66 by the end of next week. Of course I'm screwed if it goes up, not really sure what to do at this point besides eat the loss and hope it comes back down.
Well big day tomorrow, I have almost no idea what to expect. I've been looking at the charts some more, a bit pulled back this time. I tried to find some more hope and I may have found some. I noticed a similar rise, albeit over a longer time period but it interested me either way.
Pulling back even further I hope we've hit a top. All of their dramatic rises have been met with a pullback, but if it decides to widen out it's wedge we could see 90 before it tumbles back down. Tomorrow will obviously tell us a lot...
Also it was very interesting to read through this entire thread again, it appears Lampert has done this more than a few times. Sells real estate, claims restructuring, poor earnings and huge gains.
Really low volume today, I especially loved how it moved up with so little to work with. From 9:45 to 10:00 they were moving 100 shares a min. Something is up, I would say the big guys pulled out but the stock easily made it back to 75 then sat in the same .20 range for the rest of the day. I'm done trying to predict what the hell its going to do.