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Gold and silver - has the mania started? - Page 2

post #21 of 813
Quote:
Originally Posted by mouserman
Kitco.com is where I go to check metal prices and news
thank you. i used to play the silver game back in the early 80's and did real well with it. plus they make great paper weights lol. think i will get 100 ounces and sit on them.
post #22 of 813
Thread Starter 
Gold and silver pulling back substantially right now and probably going to consolidate aroudn 500$US and head back north again. Good buying opportunities on these pullbacks as the sheep panic and unload holdings.
post #23 of 813
Thread Starter 

Is silver being managed?

Some very strange trading on the silver floor - wouold you say manipulation?
Silver, yesterday and today:
Bill, I was in a bit of a rush before so I couldn't exactly explain what was going on in Silver today. To use the words manipulate would be a very large understatement. I have an issueattributing today with the unwinding of the silver/gold spread..here's how today happened: Starting around 12:30 silver is about 9.18 on the floor. Out of nowhere somebody starts offering mini's at 8.01!!! Thats right over a point below the market??? After his offers got done some more size came in at 8.25..8.50..etc. Immediately following this the pit broke and so did Gold. If anyone were responsibly unwinding a spread they definitely wouldn't be doing it in this fashion. At the same time I was hearing rumors about the Silver ETF being rejected..obviously we know now this is false. I strongly believe this was the shorts last stand to move BOTH markets down. Gold broke right after silver...Any thoughts?? Seth

This is correct. Chris Jordon of Morgan Stanley, the most well known and successful silver trader on the floor, began to offer Comex silver a dime below some bids, which cratered the market. As mentioned yesterday, the personnel on the floor was less than usual and Jordon got his way as gold followed suit.

Unlike what we have seen in gold thus far, it was enough to trigger sizeable (versus modest gold fund selling so far) spec and black box moving average fund selling on both sessions. The quicker moving average systems were triggered yesterday … the slower ones today.

Within a 24 hour trading period silver moved 90 cents from high to low. We almost got the $1 move in a virtual single session trading period I have been looking for … except it was on the downside, not upside. The upside one is still to come. THAT I am sure of.

The silver open interest rose 367 contracts to 138,676. From an open interest standpoint silver continues to trade differently than gold.

I was asked today if was I surprised silver sold off like it has. NO! This is typical silver. What has surprised me is silver still manages to trade like it has in the past, as evidenced by this huge sell-off. It surprises me that the price managers are still able to knock silver down so far, so easily, and stay short without the trepidation we see from the gold shorts.

All the way up silver has not risen with any enthusiasm. It is as if gold was dragging the price up. The GATA camp has demonstrated over the years we have a handle on the gold market and we have been spot on time and time again. However, silver still befuddles me. Those in the silver know, whom I respect, tell us that the silver situation is far more dire for the shorts than gold is, which makes sense due to the fundamentals that are known to us. Yet, it never trades that way … thus far anyhoo. I expect that to change VERY soon and will remain alert for subtle hints of a change. I still believe that when silver does break out of its shackles, like gold has, it will be very explosive.
post #24 of 813

thoughts on the future of gold and silver

Korelin Economics Web Extra - December 10, 2005
This week, we’re rolling out our panel discussions from the 2005 San Francisco Gold & Precious Metals Investment Conference. Panel 1 features Axel Merk of the Merk Hard Currency Fund, Jason Hommel of Silver Stock Report, and broker Ben Johnson of First Securities Northwest. Recorded the day before gold broke US$500, our panelists describe their backgrounds and give their thoughts on where gold and silver are headed, the relative importance to the economy of US debt, and how best to preserve wealth. (40K MP3, runs 32:12.)

http://www.voiceswest.com/kor/KEWX_Panel1.mp3
post #25 of 813
thanks marbullz. this conversation was very reasoned and informative.
post #26 of 813
It will be interesting how the juniors fare in the first 2-3 months of 2006, normally the "sweet spot" for spec stocks.
Remember what happened in early 2004, We hit a peak on March 31, then the next day (April Fool's day) everything started to fall apart and nobody wanted to own a junior metals/miner for the rest of the year.

All I know is that these stocks have gone through quite a lengthy distribution period and I would be planning on doing more selling than buying when March comes around.
Making money in the mining business is difficult, really difficult.

Personally. I am starting to look at some cheap diamond juniors because the brokers will want to flaunt something when the metals bull ends.
post #27 of 813
Silver is a good long term buy, just buy silver directly, there is only a very limited supply of the metal in the world, the price of silver has gone up 3x in the last 5 yrs, so it's a VERY GOOD long term buy and hold, buy now, sell at retirement and live it up...

I'm looking to buy about 1000 ounces of it and hold it for at least 25 yrs.
post #28 of 813
this past upleg in gold, the stocks didn't take part in it. the majors are starting to get interested in mergers though. they want all their ducks lined up because when gold is 500+ is when it becomes attractive. Next upleg in gold, i think you'll see the stocks follow. i expect the next 1-3 yrs in gold to be extremely good. you'll have rough patches, but at the end of it, i think you'll be happy your holding at least a little gold.

as mouser said, all these pullbacks -great buying ops. i wouldn;t be surprised to see gold fall through 500, even down in the 490, 480 range, which should ruffle some feathers. even better buy op. the next upleg, i think you'll see the stocks go. Its not just the US dollar, which people fixate on, its all currencys gold is moving on. thats a lot of strength. alot of different countries are buying gold as well. next couple years, two thumbs up.

stocks i'm focusing on - everyone has their favs. i think that Wolfden is a must own on pullbacks, i'd be a big buyer. i think its only a matter of time until goldcorp buys it. it makes logical sense. same camp, goldcorp has a stake in the company - it just makes sense to me.
post #29 of 813

If you like Jr gold producers

Have you ever looked into RSM.V Royal Standard www.royal-standard.com ?

Just starting production in very high grade gold veins (Gold Wedge), with a bulk tonnage gold property being brought up to 43-101 (Railway-Pinion) and several other excellent properties - All in Nevada

CMM? IMO Peggy (Margaret Kent) is carrying too much baggage and bad Karma,

I am 1st a silver bug and most of my PF is in Impact Silver IPT.V www.impactsilver.com along with some MAG,

2nd in gold which I own RSM and ADA

3rd NatGas which I own NSE

muskoka
post #30 of 813
Thread Starter 
On CMM - EDV has made a sizeable investment in CMM and generally these guys dont make too many mistakes. As for some valuations, using a mkt cap of $20,000,000, and using 55 million s/o, and with their latest resource update we have an in-ground valuation of $4.47/oz/sh??

Amazing when one considers the fact that the mill and infrastructure are in place, and in running condition, they couldn't build that facility for the mkt cap of this company at present.

So basically one can buy CMM for about $4.47/oz and have all those resources and reserves within trucking distance of a fully operational milling facility, which one gets thrown in for free at the present share price??

My prediction of 750$US gold by yearend 2006 makes CMM a very profitable mine and from here probably a 5-bagger.
post #31 of 813
I've felt the same way about CMM for a long time mouse. With what they have proven the share price is rediculus. Nice to see EDV involved now. A very safe buy and hold at this point i think...
post #32 of 813

cmm

I rode CMM from the low 40s to the mid 50s back in the spring, selling out when it seemed to suddenly peak and sp started to come down with no end of sell orders coming in. I think the company made hash of several nrs--they were often either confuscating or requiring amendments. I am always looking at it because it just seems to have so many of the intrinsic ingredients I like in a stock but even after doing extensive dd, I find myself still uncertain about basic matters such as mining costs. I recognize the company issued an nr recently addressing this but this has changed several times, albeit each time an improvement. I find myself not trusting the numbers (they may be true, however), or reluctant to trust them. That said, EDV and RAB are both heavily invested and the company will probably be able to work things out to draw regular earnings. I am apt to agree with Mouser that it is a buy at 35 cents, but only apt to agree.
post #33 of 813
Like one guy said in the Globe and Mail today, we need a junior discovery to kick start things. In the 90s we had Dia Met> 35 cents to $60, Diamond Fields > $4 to $160 and a $4 billion buyout from Inco, Arequipa> 50 cents to $30 and a $1 Billion buyout from Barrick, Aber> 25 cents to $30, eventually $55. I could go on.

There has been some nice runs, but not one "defining story" that every junior bull market needs to feed off and get people greedy and irrational.
We need something to go from 30 -50 cents to $20 in less than 6 months with a buyout as the end game. Then that "hot money" would flow back into the sector.
post #34 of 813
My concern for cmm MM is the grade and the fact that the previous operator wasn't able to maintain the grade that cmm is currently mining. I fear that the co. lacks the excitement of a strong exploration play with solid drilling results. The gold market can be more about enthusiasm, promotion, upside than financial dd. Certainly Endeavor shares your opinion from a pure financial perspective.

It's a tricky time right now when determining how to place buy orders. Atna and Stratagold have had nice runs. Excellent drilling results. This northwestern B.C play looks interesting as well.

PureOre
post #35 of 813
Thread Starter 
Well gold approaching 25 year highs again - now up to $543.50 up 4.50 in overseas trading already this Monday morning. Silver also up to 9.15 as I write and I gotta wonder when the junior goldminers will get a real push. Many of the advanced exploration plays are going great IMHO but the ones who are actually mining gold CMM comes to mind -trading at near 52 week lows? The gold mania has not started for them.
post #36 of 813

COMEX gold hits $550.20

NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Benchmark gold futures scaled a new 25-year peak above $550 an ounce on Monday, lifted by steady speculative and fund buying as the market recovered from a brief fall to lower levels early in the day, dealers said.

By 1:10 p.m. EST, February delivery gold at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division had climbed $8.60, or 1.6 percent, to $549.80 an ounce, just after hitting a session high at $550.20, which was the loftiest price for benchmark futures since March 1981.
post #37 of 813
Look at Bear Creek today. BCM. (down 75 cents) They put out a NR stating that the recovery rates will not be as good as initially thought.
I never liked the story. Mcleod -Seltzer is still living off her Arequipa buyout fame.
At this stage of the market cycle (yes, it is late in the cycle) lots of bad news like that will start to come out.

The junior resource market should stay strong until March/April. Then there will be a brutal correction that will seperate the promotions from the real stories. Even the real ones will suffer.
Remember what happened in April 2004. The bids dried up and metals stocks fell for the remainder of the year. Be prepared.
I am not trying to be negative, just realistic.
post #38 of 813
Thread Starter 
Picked up some CMM at .34 this morning. A cohort of mine had a nice chat with IR from CMM and said they were very positive about next Qs results. As of this month I believe they will have no hedged forward sales so realized price per ounce should be much better. Still a lot of debt here but with 25,000 ozs of production slated for this Q they should be able to start paying it down. JMHO
post #39 of 813
Thread Starter 
Well maybe we can safely say the gold mania has begun- I havent seen the market this positive towards gold in a while. Even the higher cost producers
such as CMM and KGI getting some nice upward movement.
GOLD @ 563.20 currently and silver @ 9.25
post #40 of 813
mouser, the rise in metals is sucking all the attention away from other areas. of course, one day that will change suddenly but for now, enjoy the ride.
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