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Mark's Weekly Trading Log (10/7-10/11)

post #1 of 8
Thread Starter 

Log Entry 10/13/13

Week ends Up from 1690.50 to 1703.20, 12.7 handles or 0.75%.

 

Link to YouTube Video

 

SPX Monthly

 

Closer Look

 

S&P Weekly Charts


Weekly Intermediate / Long-Term Trend Line / Pivots and Candlestick Analysis

 

Closer Look

 

SPX Weekly Fibonacci Extension Chart

 

SPX Weekly Fibonacci Extension Chart - Intermediate-Term

 

SPX Weekly Inverted Head and Shoulders

 

SPX Weekly Pennant

 

SPX Weekly Round Top

 

SPX Weekly Measured Move Up

 

Daily S&P Charts
Intermediate-Term Trend / Pivot Lines

 

 

Closer Look

 

Near-Term Trend Lines

 

SPX Daily Near-Term Key Support / Resistances

 

SPX Daily 3yr Regression

 

SPX Daily Andrew's PitchFork

 

SPX Daily 5/9/20 Day SMA

 

SPX Daily 20/50/100/120/200 Day SMA

 

SPX Daily Fibonacci Retracement Chart

 

 

 

SPX Daily Fibonacci Retracement Chart - Near-Term

 

SPX Daily Fibonacci Extension Chart - Near-Term

 

SPX Daily McClellan

 

SPX Daily Candlestick / Chart Patterns

 

SPX Daily Candlestick / Pattern Analysis Worksheet

 

SPX Daily Wolfe Wave

 

SPX Daily Round Bottom

 

SPX Daily Measured Move Up

 

SPX Daily Measured Move Up - New Leg

 

SPX Daily Possible Head and Shoulders

 

SPX Daily Possible Head and Shoulders - Extrapolation

 

SPX Pattern Targets Updated

 

Volume


SPY 3mo Daily Volume Spread Analysis VSA / 3mo Volume by Price POC

 

SPY 10day Hourly Volume Spread Analysis / Volume by Price POC

 

SPY 3mo Daily Volume by Price POC / Monkey Bars

 

SPY 10day Hourly Volume by Price POC / Monkey Bars

 

Risk
 

Weekly VIX

 

20yr. US Treasury ETF-TLT

 

30yr. US Treasury Yield--TYX

 

USD Index Futures /DX

 

Portfolio Section

 

Euro Trades

 

From last week

 

Exited two worst price in case of Euro strength

Remaining Lots

 

Position

Lots

 

Euro Trades

That fat finger sleepy buy instead of sell (-43.5 pips,) as stated last week, has been a thorn in the side of my Euro trade.

But, after letting go of those two of the worst price lots managed to make up for that, at present 4 lots @1.3588 up 39pips and 13.2 pips T/P.

  9/27/2013 5:20:30 Sell Market Filled EUR/USD 1.35459 0 0      
  9/30/2013 5:25:14 Sell Market Filled EUR/USD 1.35232 0 0      
  9/30/2013 5:46:10 Sell Market Filled EUR/USD 1.35478 0 0      
  9/30/2013 23:40:15 Sell Market Filled EUR/USD 1.35694 0 0      
  10/2/2013 7:28:25 Buy Market EUR/USD 1.35894 -43.5 -43.5 Ouch!    
  10/2/2013 7:28:41 Sell Market EUR/USD 1.3588 0 -43.5      
  10/2/2013 18:29:22 Sell Market EUR/USD 1.35818 0 -43.5      
  10/2/2013 19:08:22 Sell Market EUR/USD 1.3616 0 -43.5      
  10/9/2013 2:10:59 Take Profit EUR/USD 1.3518 5.2 -38.3      
  10/9/2013 11:01:31 Take Profit EUR/USD 1.34963 51.5 13.2      

 

Current Option Strategy

 

After seeing spike in interest on the 9th and stopping volume present on other charts and on various time frames, I decided to jump in with one contract expecting to average down on weakness.

But, as it happened the market bounced the very next day. I want to point out that this kind of timing almost never happens and is just plain luck.

 

Additionally, I sold the shares I had in the small SPXU position from the 19th of last month, also on the 9th.

    Current Trades    
9/19/2013 Bought 25 of SPXU @ $19.3099 (Order #751)   -492.74
10/9/2013 Sold 25 of SPXU @ $21.4601 (Order #755)   526.5
10/9/2013 Bought To Open 1 SPY Nov 16 '13 $166 Call(SPY) @ $3.30   -340.76

 

Current Portfolio

 

This Week and to conclude

 

Market up on Washington potential resolution news on raising debt ceiling for 6 weeks with government remaining shut-down.

But, without resolution on the budget leaves uncertainty in the capital markets.

I think the markets care more about default news rather than a partial government shut-down.

 

The Technicals

Near-term consolidation to start the week with longer-term charts showing strength with Congress news that can trump the technicals at any time.

I want to think the markets will be positive for the week based on the longer-term trend.

However, I remain in a holding pattern and suspect that volume will point the way on any significant spikes indicating a change.

That means volume is settling down after the recent run up and will look to take action, e.g., exit my call option, on any volume spike.

My landmark for significant change is a significant volume level (above 250million SPY volume)

I cannot stress enough the importance of volume as to judge what institutional interests lie.

 

Bloomberg Radio

SocGen’s Juckes Tells Investors `Sit on the Sidelines’ (Audio)

Oct 7, 2013

Kit Juckes, global strategist at Societe Generale SA in London, says the government shutdown in the U.S. is an event "you can't trade." Juckes talks with Bloomberg's Michael McKee on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg - The First Word."

 

Credit Suisse’s Basile Predicts Higher Growth in 2014 (Audio)

Oct 8, 2013

Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York, says more certainty and less of a fiscal drag in 2014 will lead to growth of 3 percent by the end of that year. Basile talks with Bloomberg's Michael McKee on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg - The First Word."

 

UBS’s Matus Says Yellen Not Necessarily a `Dove’ (Audio)

Oct 9, 2013

Drew Matus, deputy U.S. chief economist at UBS Securities, says Janet Yellen's reputation as an "inflation dove" is not well deserved. Matus talks with Bloomberg's Michael McKee on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg - The First Word."

 

Marchel Alexandrovich Says Deflation Is an ECB Headache (Audio)

Oct 11, 2013

Marchel Alexandrovich, an economist at Jefferies International Ltd. in London, says inflation "continues to fall away' in Europe. Alexandrovich talks with Bloomberg's Michael McKee on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg - The First Word."

 

Video

Mean Tweets - Music Edition

Dodge Durango Ron Burgundy Commercial

 

Jokes

 

California Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill that allows illegals in California to practice law. You thought a lot of Americans wanted to close the border before? Wait until lawyers start sneaking across. –Jay Leno

 

Circulation of newspapers has fallen to all-time lows. They say newspapers are becoming obsolete. I’ll tell you how bad it’s gotten. Today I saw a homeless guy sleeping on a park bench with an iPad on his face. –Jay Leno

 

Despite the shutdown, the congressional gym in Washington, D.C., remains open. The congressional gym is like any other gym except the customers are the dumbbells. –Craig Ferguson

 

Officials in Kuwait claim they have a new test that can “detect” gay people and prevent them from entering the country. That’s not to be confused with that other way to prevent people from entering Kuwait — the sign that says “Welcome to Kuwait.” –Jimmy Fallon

 

They said today that the government shutdown will not interfere with NASA’s next mission to Mars. Isn’t that ironic? We can go to Mars but we can’t go to the Statue of Liberty. –Jay Leno

 

Yesterday, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said he wants the Iranian people to stop chanting “Death to America” because he thinks it’s too harsh of a statement. Then the Iranian people were like, “Paper cuts to America?” –Jimmy Fallon

 

The other day California's health insurance exchange said that over 5 million people went to their website on the first day of Obamacare. It turns out they were off by 4.4 million. It got only 645,000 hits. It turns out those were from the same guy just trying to log on over and over. –Jay Leno

 

A new study found that dogs can actually feel genuine love for their owners. While cats just keep a journal of all the things they hate about you. –Jimmy Fallon

 

That's it for this week. Stay tuned same Bat Time same Bat Channelthumbup.gif

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                   

                                 HSM; Off the beaten track:

Must reads:

IchibomB's, HSM Futures Trading

Rock's, Divergence and Reversion Trading

Action Packed:

Rock's,The "Vent" Journal for Traders .... a place to let it all out and OVERCOME!

'kylestt & jbrand1's intra-day scalp plays'

                 

Get in your Votes HSM!! (Links in Signature)

HSM 2012 Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly Sentiment Poll Spreadsheet Link:

HSM 2013 Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly Sentiment Poll Spreadsheet Link:                                                     

Other Links :

Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet. (Data From Jan 2012)

Also includes month and quarter percentages for the S&P.

 

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

*Newly added Stock Market Trading Spreadsheets* (Credit to RG for the inspiration)

 

In the event of a significant market correction, I have made up a wish list that can be viewed here: Market Correction Shopping List

 

References:

Bulkowski's thepatternsite.com (Chart patterns, Candlestick Formations and Measurements)

Finvis, News, Futures, Screener and more.

TDAmeritrade ThinkorSwim (TOS) Platform (Paper Trade Account)

 

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

***Here is my default workspace Default xml file / VSA VBP xml file, from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory (Updated 7/14/13)***
***Right click on link to save as file to your computer.**

***Instructions PDF**

My ToS Scripts

Oanda Forex

Etrade

 

Published Articles:

Oct 12, 2012: Gold the S&P and how they co-relate.

Nov 23, 2012: Tao Philosophy and the Stock Market

Nov 5, 2012: S&P, US Dollar and the FED

Dec 7, 2012: Debunking the Myth: The demise of the U.S. Dollar

Jan 22, 2013 Gold: Not The Safe Haven, The S&P 'Bellwether'

Jan 25, 2013 S&P And The "Blow Off The Top"


Edited by Mark Vierra - 10/15/13 at 9:59pm
post #2 of 8

stupendous job as always, mark, big time thx! :worship:

 

man i just cannot get enough of your weekly log threads every sunday... always need that fix! lol... this is truly like a traders heaven man... i really don't get how there isn't a bunch of karma sitting down below these threads every week... as my 'ole saying goes, "if no one's gonna do it, then i will!" lol... it's really puzzling to me to be honest... :confused: putting these threads out every week takes quite a bit of time and effort on your part... from day #1 that you started doing these, i was always in absolute awe how you put this all together... and believe it or not i still am today... you really do go all the way out with these threads... posting commentary, a bitch load of sweet charts, and now recently the videos, and more ... simply amazing...

 

btw, just wanted to quickly throw an idea your way here... but what do you think of the idea of creating a seperate thread over on the main today section for your video? just trying to think up some ways to get more readers to this thread...

 

thx again for the awesome read!

post #3 of 8
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cy McCaffrey View Post
 

btw, just wanted to quickly throw an idea your way here... but what do you think of the idea of creating a seperate thread over on the main today section for your video? just trying to think up some ways to get more readers to this thread...

 

thx again for the awesome read!

 

Thx so much Cy.

I'm glad to contribute.

 

Well, I suppose a thread for the video is ok with me.

You already got it up on the Home page.

IDK, whatever you think is best.

 

great job keeping that content organized, BTW.

post #4 of 8

thx, mark...

 

yea, i was just thinking a fresh new thread over on the today section for the video would be great! if i remember correctly i believe you were doing that a few months back... it's completely up to you tho! :Thumbsup:

 

sometimes i get the feeling like nobody even reads the home page? lol idk... i do try to throw up the link to your video underneath the description box... not sure if you're getting the views on youtube? but, anyway... i also do try to feature you up on the other section of hsm (the other one is called "featured stories" that show up on the top right hand side of the page) but i see sometimes your item doesn't even show up... weird... anyhow, thx again mark for your taking the time and everything... just wanted to throw this out there and see what you thought... :)

post #5 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Vierra View Post
 

 

Well, I suppose a thread for the video is ok with me.

 

 

Can you share the link here too?

 

Many thanks.

post #6 of 8
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex-62 View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Vierra View Post
 

 

Well, I suppose a thread for the video is ok with me.

 

 

Can you share the link here too?

 

Many thanks.

 

Welcome to HSM Forex-62,

Karma for honoring my humble group with your first post.

And, the requested link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLAdtGzahY4

post #7 of 8

Mark I think its safe to say you cover just about every "style" of technical trading in your log. :Thumbsup:

post #8 of 8
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Waffle View Post
 

Mark I think its safe to say you cover just about every "style" of technical trading in your log. :Thumbsup:

 

Yes, I've long been fascinated by TA and the markets. Soon to come, I may start adding moon cycle trading... No J/K :LOL:

 

BTW, I've been checking out your journal and I have to say that I like what I see. Your coming to be a great asset to the HSM community.

Keep up the great contributions, and Thx.

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