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Stock Market Today: March 4th - 8th

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Stock Market Today: March 4th - 8th

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Wall Street Week Ahead: With record highs in sight, stocks face roadblocks

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By Leah Schnurr

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If Wall Street needs to climb a wall of worry, it will have plenty of opportunity next week.

Major U.S. stock indexes will make another attempt at reaching all-time records, but the fitful pace that has dominated trading is likely to continue. Next Friday's unemployment report and the hefty spending cuts that look like they about to take effect will be at the forefront.

The importance of whether equities can reach and sustain those highs is more than Wall Street's usual fixation on numbers with psychological significance. Breaking through to uncharted territory is seen as a test of investors' faith in the rally.

"It's very significant," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

"The thinking is, there's just not enough there for an extended bull run," he said. "If we do break through (record highs), then maybe the charts and price action are telling us there's something better ahead."

Flare-ups in the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis and next Friday's report on the U.S. labor market could jostle the market, though U.S. job indicators have generally been trending in a positive direction.

Small- and mid-cap stocks hit lifetime highs in February. Now the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) are racing each other to the top. The Dow, made up of 30 stocks, is about 75 points - less than 1 percent - away from its record close of 14,164.53, which it hit on October 9, 2007. The broader S&P is still 3 percent away from its closing high of 1,565.15, also reached on October 9, 2007.

The advantage may be in the Dow's court. So far in 2013, it has gained 7.5 percent, beating the S&P 500 by about 1 percent.

  • THE RALLY AND THE REALITY CHECK

The Dow's relative strength owes much to its unique make-up and calculation, as well as to investors' recent preference for buying value stocks likely to generate steady reliable gains, rather than growth stocks.

But the more defensive stance illustrates how stock buyers are getting concerned about this year's rally. While investors don't want to miss out on gains, they're picking up companies that are less likely to decline as much as high-flying names - if a market correction comes.

The Russell Value Index (^RAV) is up 7.6 percent for the year so far, outpacing the Russell Growth Index's (^RAG) 5.7 percent rise. Within the realm of the S&P 500, the consumer staples sector led the market in February, gaining 3.1 percent.

There is some concern that growth-oriented names are being eclipsed by defensive bets, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.

"This isn't a be-all and end-all sell signal by any means, but we would feel much more comfortable if some of the more aggressive areas, like technology and small caps, would start to gain some leadership here," Detrick said.

Signs that investors are becoming concerned about the rally's pace is evident in the options market, where the ratio of put activity to call activity has recently shifted in favor of puts, which represent expectations for a stock to fall.

"We are seeing some put hedging in the financials, building up for the past month," said Henry Schwartz, president of options analytics firm Trade Alert in New York.

The put-to-call ratio representing an aggregate of about 562 financial stocks is 1:1, when normally, calls should be outnumbering puts.

Investors have no shortage of reasons to crave the relative safety of blue chips and defensive stocks. Although markets have mostly looked past uncertainty over Washington's plans to cut the deficit, fiscal policy negotiations still pose a risk to equities.

The $85 billion in spending cuts set to begin on Friday is expected to slow economic growth this year if policymakers do not reach a new deal. Markets so far have held firm despite the wrangling in Washington, but tangible economic effects could pinch stock prices going forward.

The International Monetary Fund warned that full implementation of the cuts would probably take at least 0.5 percentage point off U.S. growth this year.

  • EASY MONEY AND TEPID HIRING

Investors will also take in a round of economic data at a time when concerns are percolating that the market is being pushed up less by fundamentals and more by loose monetary policy around the world.

The main economic event will be Friday's non-farm payrolls report for February. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 160,000 jobs last month, only a tad higher than in January, in a sign the labor market is healing at a slow pace. The U.S. unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 7.9 percent.

While lackluster data has been a catalyst in the past for stock market gains as investors bet it would ensure continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve, that sentiment may be wearing thin.

Markets stumbled last week following worries that the Fed might wind down its quantitative easing program sooner than expected.

"It shows the underpinning of the market is being driven at this point by monetary policy," Hellwig said.

With investors questioning what is behind the rally, it will make a run to record highs even more significant, Hellwig added.

"There's smart people that are in the bull camp and the bear camp and the muddle-through camp," Hellwig said. "The fact that you can statistically, using historical evidence, make a case for going higher, lower, or staying the same makes this number very important this time around."

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Comments or questions on this column can be emailed to: leah.schnurr(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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powered by  econoday logoResource Center »  Event Release Dates   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar



Monthly Weekly Daily Today 6:48 PM ET
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Monday Mar 4

 





Redbook
[Bullet
8:55 AM ET

ISM Non-Mfg Index
[djStar]
10:00 AM ET






Factory Orders
[djStar]
10:00 AM ET


Beige Book
[djStar]
2:00 PM ET

Treasury STRIPS
[Bullet
3:00 PM ET

Weekly Bill Settlement

52-Week Bill Settlement




Jobless Claims
[Star]
8:30 AM ET










Consumer Credit
[Bullet
3:00 PM ET


Money Supply
[Bullet
4:30 PM ET


Wholesale Trade
[Bullet
10:00 AM ET
Equity Settlement
3-07-13
Equity Settlement
3-08-13
Equity Settlement
3-11-13
Equity Settlement
3-12-13
Equity Settlement
3-13-13

 

Time Cur. Imp. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Sunday, March 3
18:30   AUD     MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)     0.3%  
18:50   JPY     Monetary Base (YoY)   11.5% 10.9%  
19:00   NZD     ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)     0.3%  
19:30   AUD     ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)     -0.90%  
19:30   AUD     Building Approvals (MoM)   2.8% -4.4%  
19:30   AUD     Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)   -1.0% -2.9%  
Monday, March 4
03:00   EUR     Spanish Unemployment Change   77.50K 132.10K  
04:30   EUR     Sentix Investor Confidence   -5.2 -3.9  
04:30   GBP     Construction PMI   49.0 48.7  
05:00   EUR     PPI (MoM)   0.5% -0.2%  
09:00   EUR     French 12-Month BTF Auction     0.121%  
09:00   EUR     French 3-Month BTF Auction     0.012%  
09:00   EUR     French 6-Month BTF Auction     0.041%  
09:45   USD     New York NAPM     568.30  
11:30   USD     3-Month Bill Auction     0.125%  
11:30   USD     6-Month Bill Auction     0.135%  
Tentative   USD     Global Semiconductor Sales (MoM)     -3.0%  
17:30   AUD     AIG Services Index     45.3  
19:01   GBP     BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)   1.0% 1.9%  
19:30   AUD     Current Account   -15.4B -14.9B  
19:30   AUD     Retail Sales (MoM)   0.4% -0.2%  
20:30   JPY     Average Cash Earnings (YoY)   -0.3% -1.7%  
20:45   CNY     Chinese HSBC Services PMI     54.0  
22:30   AUD     Interest Rate Decision   3.00% 3.00%  
22:30   AUD     RBA Rate Statement           
Tuesday, March 5
03:13   EUR     Spanish Services PMI   46.0 47.0  
03:45   EUR     Italian Services PMI   43.6 43.9  
03:48   EUR     French Markit Comp. PMI     42.30  
03:50   EUR     French Services PMI   42.7 42.7  
03:55   EUR     German Services PMI   54.1 54.1  
04:00   EUR     Services PMI   47.3 47.3  
04:30   GBP     Services PMI   51.0 51.5  
05:00   EUR     Retail Sales (MoM)   0.2% -0.8%  
Tentative   GBP     5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction     0.787%  
08:55   USD     Redbook (MoM)     1.40%  
10:00   USD     IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism   46.3 47.3  
10:00   USD     ISM Non-Manufacturing Index   55.0 55.2  
11:30   USD     4-Week Bill Auction     0.110%  
11:30   USD     52-Week Bill Auction     0.145%  
16:30   USD     API Weekly Crude Stock     0.90M  
16:30   USD     API Weekly Gasoline Stock     -1.44M  
19:01   GBP     BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)     0.6%  
19:30   AUD     GDP (QoQ)   0.6% 0.5%  
Wednesday, March 6
04:45   GBP     BoE Gov King Speaks           
05:00   EUR     GDP (QoQ)     -0.6% -0.6%  
05:35   EUR     German 5-Year Bobl Auction     0.680%  
07:00   USD     MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)     -3.8%  
08:15   USD     ADP Nonfarm Employment Change   170K 192K  
10:00   CAD     Interest Rate Decision   1.00% 1.00%  
10:00   CAD     Ivey PMI   56.0 58.9  
10:00   USD     Factory Orders (MoM)   -2.2% 1.8%  
10:30   USD     Crude Oil Inventories     1.130M  
10:30   USD     Gasoline Inventories     -1.857M  
14:00   USD     Beige Book        
17:30   AUD     AIG Construction Index     36.2  
19:30   AUD     Trade Balance   -0.50B -0.43B  
Tentative   JPY     Interest Rate Decision   0.10% 0.10%  
Thursday, March 7
00:00   JPY     Leading Index     96.2 93.4  
01:30   EUR     French Unemployment Rate   10.1% 10.3%  
01:45   CHF     Unemployment Rate   3.1% 3.1%  
Tentative   JPY     BoJ Press Conference        
02:45   EUR     French Trade Balance   -4.8B -5.3B  
Tentative   GBP     Halifax House Price Index (MoM)   -0.4% -0.2%  
04:00   EUR     Italian PPI (MoM)   0.3% -0.2%  
04:00   EUR     Italian PPI (YoY)   1.8% 1.8%  
04:00   CHF     SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks        
04:50   EUR     Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction     5.202%  
04:50   EUR     Spanish 2-Year Bonos Auction     2.540%  
04:50   EUR     Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction     4.123%  
05:00   EUR     French 10-Year OAT Auction     2.30%  
05:00   EUR     French 15-Year OAT Auction     2.85%  
05:00   EUR     French 5-Year BTAN Auction     1.12%  
06:00   EUR     German Factory Orders (MoM)   0.5% 0.8%  
07:00   GBP     BOE QE Total   375B 375B  
07:00   GBP     Interest Rate Decision   0.50% 0.50%  
07:30   USD     Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)     -24.4%  
07:45   EUR     Interest Rate Decision   0.75% 0.75%  
08:30   CAD     Building Permits (MoM)   5.0% -11.2%  
08:30   CAD     Trade Balance   -1.0B -0.9B  
08:30   EUR     ECB Press Conference           
08:30   USD     Continuing Jobless Claims   3,110K 3,074K  
08:30   USD     Initial Jobless Claims   355K 344K  
08:30   USD     Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)   -1.6% -2.0%  
08:30   USD     Trade Balance   -42.6B -38.5B  
08:30   USD     Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)   4.2% 4.5%  
09:50   USD     Bloomberg Consumer Confidence     -32.8  
10:30   USD     Natural Gas Storage     -171B  
12:00   USD     Chain Store Sales (YoY)     4.5%  
15:00   USD     Consumer Credit   14.50B 14.59B  
16:45   NZD     Manufacturing Sales (QoQ)     1.6%  
18:50   JPY     Adjusted Current Account   0.11T 0.10T  
18:50   JPY     Bank Lending (YoY)     1.3%  
18:50   JPY     GDP (QoQ)   -0.1% -0.1%  
18:50   JPY     GDP Price Index (YoY)   -0.6% -0.6%  
Friday, March 8
00:00   JPY     BoJ Monthly Report        
00:00   JPY     Economy Watchers Current Index     49.5  
02:45   EUR     French Government Budget Balance     -87.2B  
03:00   EUR     Spanish Industrial Production (YoY)   -5.2% -6.9%  
03:15   CHF     CPI (MoM)   0.3% -0.3%  
04:30   GBP     PPI Input (YoY)     1.8%  
04:30   GBP     PPI Input (MoM)     1.3%  
04:30   GBP     PPI Output (MoM)     0.2%  
04:30   GBP     PPI Output (YoY)     2.0%  
06:00   EUR     German Industrial Production (MoM)   0.5% 0.3%  
08:15   CAD     Housing Starts   175.00K 160.60K  
08:30   CAD     Employment Change   8.0K -21.9K  
08:30   CAD     Labor Productivity (QoQ)     -0.5%  
08:30   CAD     Participation Rate     66.60%  
08:30   CAD     Unemployment Rate   7.0% 7.0%  
08:30   USD     Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)   0.2% 0.2%  
08:30   USD     Average Weekly Hours   34.4 34.4  
08:30   USD     Nonfarm Payrolls   160K 157K  
08:30   USD     Private Nonfarm Payrolls   170K 166K  
08:30   USD     Unemployment Rate   7.9% 7.9%  
10:00   USD     Wholesale Inventories (MoM)   0.3% -0.1%  
10:30   USD     ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW)     6.80%  
20:30   CNY     Chinese CPI (YoY)     2.0%  
20:30   CNY     Chinese CPI (MoM)     1.0%  
20:30   CNY     Chinese PPI (YoY)     -1.6%  
Saturday, March 9
00:30   CNY     Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)     20.6%  
00:30   CNY     Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)     10.3%  
00:30   CNY     Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)     15.2%  
 
Legend
 
Speech
 
Preliminary Release
 
Revised Release
 
Retrieving Data
   
Low Volatility Expected
   
Moderate Volatility Expected
   
High Volatility Expected

 

 

 

 

 

What to Watch in the Week Ahead

 

 

  • Monday

Earnings: Transocean, Boyd Gaming

0800 am Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks on monetary policy at NABE policy conference

0115 pm Fed Gov. Jerome Powell speaks on Too-Big-to-Fail at NABE conference

  • Tuesday

Earnings: Verifone, Bank of Nova Scotia

0815 am Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker on policy

1000 am Nonmanufacturing ISM

  • Wednesday

Earnings: Brown Forman, Staples, PetSmart, Hovnanian, Vail Resorts, American Eagle Outfitters, Big Lots

0815 am Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on economy

0815 am ADP employment

1000 am Factory orders

0200 pm Beige book

  • Thursday

Chain store sales

Earnings: Kroger, Pandora, Smithfield Foods, H&R Block, Cooper Cos.

0830 am Initial claims

0830 am International trade

0830 am Productivity and costs

0300 pm Consumer credit

  • Friday

Earnings: Ann, Foot Locker

0830 am Employment report

1000 am Wholesale trade

>>>Also, do not miss Mark Vierra's latest log entry! --> Mark's Weekly Trading Log

 

 

>>>Will this week end Up, Down, or Flat? Vote in --> Poll: Weekly Poll - Sentiment (3/4-3/8)

 

votemarcosx3x.png

THE STOCK MARKET THREAD GUIDELINES

  • Respect your fellow traders. This means no insults, derogatory remarks or any other type of behavior that derails the thread.
  • Keep off topic chatter to a minimum. If the market is flat and nothing is happening, we do not mind hearing about your weekend and your hot girlfriend. If the market is moving and trades are flying the best thing to do is post important stock related events that can help your fellow traders.
  • Are you new? Hold your questions until the end of the trading day, or post them in the Stock Market Education section.

 

Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

post #2 of 405
Thread Starter 

Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 3/1/13

Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon

post #3 of 405

At the 05:15 mark it looks like an inverse head and shoulders.

post #4 of 405

http://www.france24.com/en/20130302-china-fully-prepared-currency-war-banker-0

 

A top Chinese banker says China is fully prepared for a currency war. Great....

post #5 of 405
post #6 of 405
Quote:
Originally Posted by rg7803 View Post

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/3/3/reutersworld/1303031108-hundreds-of-thousands-march-against-aus&sec=reutersworld

 

Portugal on fire, yesterday. Thanks for the link BobK!

 

Talking to Rui this morning and he told me what happened yesterday and it didn't even make the primary news and I had to search for it.

post #7 of 405

In case anyone is interested I got a special month end edition for my log this week.

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/273968/marks-weekly-trading-log-special-month-end-edition-2-25-3-1

post #8 of 405

looks like a boring Monday open unless there is some major news event...time to go long I guess....

post #9 of 405

TGT on the move

post #10 of 405

GOOG

 

waaa???

post #11 of 405

LNKD finally looks like a top is in here around $174. Pullback to $160 coming in the next 2 weeks or so imo.

post #12 of 405
Quote:
Originally Posted by o7media View Post

LNKD finally looks like a top is in here around $174. Pullback to $160 coming in the next 2 weeks or so imo.

 

Could go 165 today..

post #13 of 405

LNKD looks bullish to me.  Yeah it is over extended, but I think it will go a little bit higher, as retail people are still buying.

post #14 of 405

6% drop on NFLX...eek.gif

post #15 of 405

is the developing downtrend real?

post #16 of 405
Quote:
Originally Posted by nadgob View Post

is the developing downtrend real?

on what?
 

 

post #17 of 405

Sorry, I should have been more specific.

 

I see Dow, opening lower and twice hitting ~14030; and same with Nasdaq twice touched on ~3150.

post #18 of 405
Quote:
Originally Posted by nadgob View Post

Sorry, I should have been more specific.

 

I see Dow, opening lower and twice hitting ~14030; and same with Nasdaq twice touched on ~3150.

I basically see a wedge forming on DIA...no clear direction to me...I could be wrong though...

 

post #19 of 405

TICKS distributing mostly to the upside so far, ES resistance around 1519, edge goes to the bulls as we approach the home stretch.

 

Airlines, home construction and internet index are the leading, or rather holding us up here while we hover.

 

Pressure to the downside is coming from gold, oil and coal, with gold continuing its weak trend:

 

post #20 of 405

jeez goog wtf

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post

GOOG

 

waaa???

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