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Mark's Weekly Trading Log (1/7-1/11)

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Thread Starter 

Log Entry 1/13/13

 

Week ends Up from 1466.47 to 1472.05, 5.58 handles or 0.38%.

 

SPX Monthly Trend Lines and Candlestick Analysis

 

S&P Weekly Charts

Weekly Intermediate-Term Trend Lines and Candlestick Analysis

 

Closer Look

 

SPX ADX/DMI MACD Weekly Chart

 

S&P Weekly Chart Patterns

 

SPX Weekly Round Top

 

SPX Weekly Measured Move Up (target almost acquired)

 

SPX Weekly Inverted Head and Shoulders

 

Daily S&P Charts

Intermediate-Term Trend Lines and Candlestick Analysis

 

Closer Look

 

Near-Term Trend Lines

 

Closer Look

 

SPX 3yr. Regression Channel

 

Andrews Pitchfork

 

50 day SMA and the 200 day SMA

 

SPX Daily McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index

 

NYSE Advancing/Declining issues

 

Daily Chart Pattern Updates

 

SPX Daily Candle/Pattern Analysis Worksheet

 

SPX Daily Flat Base

 

SPX Daily Symmetrical Triangle

 

SPX Daily Inverted Head and Shoulders

 

Quote:

The theme for tonight is consolidation in the form of the Daily Bull Continuation Flag, before the next move.

 

I originally drew a pennant on the /ES, Monday and changed it to a Bull Flag on Tuesday.

 

Today, there is a possible breakout candle (unclosed and still active) piercing the top of the flag

but overnight futures only has it testing tight range of earlier candles wick.

 

/ES Daily Bull Continuation Flag

 

SPX Daily Bull Continuation Flag

 

SPX Pattern targets updated

 

Volume.

/ES Daily Various VAP POC

 

Risk

Quote:

VIX is putting in new lows (as predicted) and the way the SPX is looking with topping tails

in both directions, means tight range of indecision.

And, I think a low volume melting scenario, putting in a solid base and holding gains. (sideways)


Daily VIX

 

Quote:

Been watching these Head and Shoulder patterns on both /DX and U.S. Dollar futures for a while.

I put measurements on the 30yr U.S. Treasury Bonds ETF (TLT) that I may get into soon if the market keeps

putting in fresh highs as a hedge. My goal is below 110$, that I would feel a comfortable price.

No more than 1k lots at a time waiting a week or two in between (that's the hard part--Timing).

I'm not turning bear, just yet, I want to be able to have positions that I can play for both directions.

It will take a while to build this position up and am just now starting to have the juice to do this.

That is, if I'm careful with my lot sizes, spread out my scaling in (timing) and not dip into margin (too much).

 

/ZB 30yr. US Treasury Futures

 

/DX US Dollar Futures (Mid-Term Head and Shoulders)

 

 

Portfolio Section

 

Open orders

I just adjusted the one open order (marked in green) down from 100$ to 98.57 (should coincide with S&P 1480 area)

for the most recent lot bought in Nov and added (marked in blue) another (just in case) lot at 100$ bought in Aug last year.

Proceeds from these sales will be turned into TLT U.S. Treasury ETF,

(eventually, God willing and if the creek don't rise)

as one of my goals this year is to preserve capitol with a true "safe haven" asset.

 

Current Portfolio (No trades this week)

 

Guesstimated Projections

This is the final part of my log where I throw a guess out there for fun.
This is not to be taken too seriously. But I do think it's good to get down on record

the current thought process and expectations for later critique.

 

Last weeks projections:

Quote:

This Week and to conclude

Bullish momentum may be slowing as expected after the huge run up at the start of the year.

However, without anything substantial changing in the way of the fundamental, save the dreaded debt. ceiling,

the chart technicals remain extremely bullish.

I feel the emphasis paid to market response to Congress is boring and the market is catching on to what many traders are starting to realize that the "zero hour" tactic is becoming the same tired old story. Supports are bound to be tested as the last minute approaches but I expect less and less impact from the "crying wolf" (i.e., I don't think it will amount to much downside).

I refuse to buy into any philosophical discussion on "do the fundamentals support the technicals?" or what the state of the economy is or is not, this or that, is a futile waste of time and mental energy. I know that I am not qualified to read fundamentals (PE isn't that high school sports?) and realize that those individuals/institutional firms that are, not only have less than desirable track record, but most make for some very good contrarian indicators.

The important thing I tell myself is what the market perception is and not what I think the market perception should be. The only thing that should be important to any trader on any time-frame is their technical analysis and the current trend in which they trade. I think it's very important for a trader to come with grips with the "primary over-all 3-4yr trend" and to be self-aware of the current market environment and know what a "contra-trend" trade is. In other words, for the common trader, basing trades on fundamentals (for me) is a crap shoot, but technical analysis is statistically proven and sound methodology.

For this week I expect the S&P to be flat to slightly up.

(Voting Up in the poll)

 

Weekly Projection:

1000

 

Daily Guesstimate:

1000

 

This Week and to conclude

As stated, I think the bullish trend will continue slightly to 1480 resistance that will throw price back a peg or two for a much needed and healthy breather. I'm guess 1465 as the bounce point. All the technicals that I can see point to the bullish trend resuming and all systems a go for new fresh highs at the 1500 area. My plan as it has always been is to slowly and taking my sweet time scale out of long positions as the market continues putting in nose bleeding highs before.....

 

 

Weekly Projection:

 

Daily Guesstimate:

 

That's it for this week. Stay tuned same Bat Time same Bat Channelthumbup.gif

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM!! (Links in Signature)

                                                                  

Other Links :

Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet. (Data From Jan 2012)

Also includes month and quarter percentages for the S&P.

 

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

*Newly added Stock Market Trading Spreadsheets* (Credit to RG for the inspiration)

 

References:

Bulkowski's thepatternsite.com (Chart patterns, Candlestick Formations and Measurements)

Finvis, News, Futures, Screener and more.

TDAmeritrade ThinkorSwim (TOS) Platform (Paper Trade Account)

 

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

***Here is my default workspace xml file from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory.***
***Right click on link to save as file to your computer.**

***Instructions PDF**

Oanda Forex

Etrade

 

Published Articles:

Oct 12, 2012: Gold the S&P and how they co-relate.

Nov 23, 2012: Tao Philosophy and the Stock Market

Nov 5, 2012: S&P, US Dollar and the FED

Dec 7, 2012: Debunking the Myth: The demise of the U.S. Dollar


Edited by Mark Vierra - 1/17/13 at 7:02pm
post #2 of 3
ahhh and there he is! wink.gif
 
my sunday evenings just aren't the same w/o geting my fix of mark's weekly trading log! laughing.gif thank you as always mark... you get top featured item on the home page thumbup.gif
post #3 of 3
Thread Starter 

smile.gif

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cy McCaffrey View Post

ahhh and there he is! wink.gif
 
my sunday evenings just aren't the same w/o geting my fix of mark's weekly trading log! laughing.gif thank you as always mark... you get top featured item on the home page thumbup.gif
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