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What will happen to the US Dollar in 2014?

post #1 of 4
Thread Starter 

I was catching up on some long term charts and decided to up a dollar chart.

 

Noticing some peaks and troughs, I wanted to see if there would be any correlations to a gann square, so I pulled one up in a shorter time zone. The 2005 was one area that fell almost exactly onto one of the vertical time bars, so I zoomed out further and used the same Gann square using this peak, here is the result:

 

 

Using the 2001 top and the 2005 as my reference points, 3 additional pivotal areas showed up.

 

The 2008 lows came in right at next time zone (38.2%), spooky...

 

The next major peak in 2009 did not come in on any vertical time zones, but it did hit the 61.8% line almost to a tee. The next two major pivots indicated with red and green arrows almost aligned perfectly with time and price.

 

If we are to see any further correlations, then Sept 2014 is where the next one takes place.

 

Enough about Gann, lets see if one of my favorite Italians, Mr Fibonacci has anything to say about this.

 

Same chart, just remove the Gann Square and slap on some Fib time zones.

 

I like to work from areas of extremes. Where were people the most bullish? Where were people the most bearish? Slap  on some Fib lines, will there be anything interesting?

 

Going from the most bullish top (2001) to the most bearish bottom (2008) and your very next important Fib time zone comes in at... Oct 2014.

 

 

Just to be clear, using Fib and Gann to project things out into the future means nothing by itself. However, if we find ourselves reach some sort of feverish bull or bear environment close to these dates, having these kind of charts is useful as a reference.

 

Now to find out of there is any fundamental reasons for a bullish or bearish climatic move around 2014!

 

What do you think can happen over the next year and a half that might rally or destroy the dollar?

post #2 of 4

Excellent post, Gil. I don't have much on my charts for the dollar to give an opinion.

Looking forward to a discussion from others. 

post #3 of 4
Thread Starter 

In searching for possible 2014 events... bingo!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16733461

 

Fed not to raise US interest rates until late 2014

 

The Federal Reserve has said it does not now expect to raise interest rates in the US until late 2014.

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/us-usa-fed-lacker-idUSBRE8720JY20120803

Lacker says Fed rate hike could come before late 2014

 

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve may need to raise official interest rates before late 2014, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Friday, justifying his dissent against the central bank's latest decision.

post #4 of 4

All that one needs to predict the dollar (from a Canadian perspective at least) is this :

 

Where, as one can see, it NOT very often, that the two are both trading AT PAR.

 

Hence ?......Look for the Canadian dollar TO TANK !!!!

 

Look for Commodities ALSO to TANK : ie. Gold etc.

 

Look for the US Dollar /Greenback, TO GAIN against most major currencies.

 

Period,

 

CAD-USD-1000-0-0-11-2442049-2456273.png

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