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My bold prediction about the stock market and fiscal cliff

post #1 of 23
Thread Starter 

Count down timers, scarey graphics of an abyss, fear of a total collapse..

 

If everybody is preparing for a big drop in the stock market on January first, that means it will not happen because the masses are always wrong at pivotal points.

 

No stock market crash has ever had a countdown timer, so let me stick my neck out and say:

 

post #2 of 23

Hi Stockjock-e,

 

I think you should start a thread focus on CHARTS ONLY.

 Meaning, support a trade decisions based on an explained chart.

 

One reg.approval Chartist thread … continuing charts in ES…AAPL…GOOG..to see what group chartists say.. daily.

 

2nd thread…any member’s instrument…to see how the Chartists would execute a trade.

 

 I would do the undertaking myself… but I cannot be understood as well as you.

 Besides I think you started a similar thread before… but it grew into uninformative talk

 

PS I think ES will reach bottom today or tomorrow..will post chart  and correct my previous chart.

post #3 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

"No stock market crash has ever had a countdown timer"

Quote of the year right there.

post #4 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

Count down timers, scarey graphics of an abyss, fear of a total collapse..

 

If everybody is preparing for a big drop in the stock market on January first, that means it will not happen because the masses are always wrong at pivotal points.

 

No stock market crash has ever had a countdown timer, so let me stick my neck out and say:

 

I think that's a given and it would happen earlier. Then we have to wonder about the Santa rally. I really don't see a big drop coming and I think Nov will end up and Dec will continue up. The profits of doom and gloom are going to be disappointed.

post #5 of 23
Wtf do I do with this 10 year supply of dehydrated eggs if the end really isn't near?
post #6 of 23
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post
Wtf do I do with this 10 year supply of dehydrated eggs if the end really isn't near?

 perfect for bodybuilding and getting beach babes (they love eggs)

post #7 of 23
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post

Wtf do I do with this 10 year supply of dehydrated eggs if the end really isn't near?


I have some great brownie recipes for you.

post #8 of 23
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
I have some great brownie recipes for you.

 

 my man!  cool.gif

post #9 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post


I have some great brownie recipes for you.

Nice... I'll have to raid the garden and wait for the recipes
post #10 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by IchibomB View Post

 perfect for bodybuilding and getting beach babes (they love eggs)

They seem to not like the "copper farts" that come with it though...
post #11 of 23

but what if the contrarian play is what everyone's thinking and we really do drop ? well whatever happens it's gonna be a tough decision.

 

i remember last december everyone and their mom were making calls to pile on SDS calls and VIX calls for the market crash.. maybe they were a year early

post #12 of 23

What really pisses me off is that they're going right on and playing games. Repubs and Dems continue the BS and say they won't give an inch.

post #13 of 23

"Even Bono is worried about the fiscal cliff."

 

Bono Warns Fiscal Cliff Cuts Will Hurt World’s Poor

post #14 of 23

Also keep in mind, sometimes the "that looks to easy" type of trade, generally works out. I can't count how many times I told myself no way its that simple yet it was assuming you can read a chart. I think we see well below 1340 but I think it comes way before the 1st of the year and we bounce into the new year. So basically the weak hands will get shaken out here on this whole fear then by time it gets here, the big money will be in position for a long trade into the actual date

post #15 of 23
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobK View Post

What really pisses me off is that they're going right on and playing games. Repubs and Dems continue the BS and say they won't give an inch.


My prediction: Republicans will bend a little, reach a compromise and force Obama to say that "thanks to the Republicans, a deal has been reached!". This will draw huge cheers from the right as proof that the Republicans are truly the ones to get things done, even when they are not in the White House. This will be a much needed lift in spirits to 49% of the nation that is extremely pissed off.

post #16 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post


My prediction: Republicans will bend a little, reach a compromise and force Obama to say that "thanks to the Republicans, a deal has been reached!". This will draw huge cheers from the right as proof that the Republicans are truly the ones to get things done, even when they are not in the White House. This will be a much needed lift in spirits to 49% of the nation that is extremely pissed off.

 

I just get tired of the same ol BS. I used to watch FOX all of the time but then you get the same crap there. It's the same all over, right and left. They've got a country to run and they need to get on with it.

 

I still think we go up through Dec and then start dropping in Jan but nothing huge.

post #17 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post

Nice... I'll have to raid the garden and wait for the recipes

LOL just dust them with powdered sugar through a leaf stencil, that way nobody gets in trouble unintentionally.
post #18 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

LOL just dust them with powdered sugar through a leaf stencil, that way nobody gets in trouble unintentionally.

That might work...
post #19 of 23
I've shifted to now thinking the recent markdown was this:

phase 1: [Pre-election] fiscal cliff being priced in 40% of the way, due to Obama being favored to win re-election

phase 2: [Nov 7-16] fiscal cliff being priced in the other 60% due to Obama actually winning re-election (60% not priced in due to chance Romney might win)

And that, my friends, could be the extent of the fiscal clliff bearish impact. I expect they will solve it, but not until 2013. So, when congress adjourns, dumb money will sell into a pricing in that already occurred and big money will soak up all the longs they can find and ride Santa's buttcrack to glory. I'm thinking we get a nice rally off of dumb money selling between now and about Dec 15th, not sure if the current swing low holds but in the end if this thinking is generally right the specifics aren't as important. The rally that starts by around Dec 15th should carry through into 2013.

This is all wild speculation, not a trading plan.
post #20 of 23
Thread Starter 

I think that AAPL $505 was basically the bell that rang when the sellers flushed out.

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