Next day's open (aka Last 1 minute candle of the day)

Never noticed but would be interesting to do a study on it by looking at the relationships. Of course I wouldn't put too much weight on it because a lot of things happen in between sessions with all the global news and data that comes out before and after the bells.

Truthfully man .... there are better edges elsewhere.  You're referring to areas where there's commonly people taking profits or short are covering positions right before the bell.  Too much can happen via futures until the next open.  In essence trying to predict off the last 1min candle is gambling IMO.

 

However, I did once read about a situation where people take advantage of institutions being forced to get rid of or buy a specific security at the end of the day.

I'm never looked into it, would be interesting though.

 

But I think WillTheGreat posted about the after hours action once. He said the action right after the closing bell on the SPY can give an indication to how the markets will be the next day. I never really looked into that either, but I remember the day he posted that he was right. SPY dropped right after the closing bell like 25 cents or so and the next day the markets sold off lol ...may have been a coincidence, but was interesting.

 

Would be cool to track and see how it performs.

My guess is you have a 50/50 chance 

 

Maybe in theory, but I doubt you can make money off it. You're forced to buy at the open so your spreads are going to be very high. Could be interesting to look into, but there are only 24 hrs in a day

Um, you should actually get a point, if you add back the SPY divvy payout, it was a higher open. Notice that SPY is trading below yesterday's close and yet it says +0.24%? There's your explanation. It could simply be a divvy capture strategy, but still, facts are facts (well, I guess not always).

.

 

MM's read these boards, good call.

it's not about MMs. it's that this a business and you don't give away your success (at least without a price). 

I've given out and written so much about trading over the years on this board.

I would like to think I've helped out a little bit.

When you have a solid edge, please start a thread about it and tell everyone exactly

how it works. 

 

"those that know, don't talk and those that don't know...talk."

-Al Brooks

 

No I'm being serious, MMs are taught to visit forums and chat rooms. I'm not trying to insult you and I've learned a lot from you ichi. My main strategy is actually derived from your posts (and Kyle's) about Ichimoku clouds and I never meant to infer that you aren't helping out.  

 

I'm just saying that MM's are known to look around to get an idea of what's going on so it's good that you aren't giving away your secrets. 

 

Ichibom is a god and I wouldn't have a strategy right now if it wasn't for you 

now you're making me cry 

agree with chh. this is why hsm is contrarian indicator

I think he was quoting some Zen Bodhisutra something or another.

Do MM's read Forums? I never thought about it.

OK, yeah I fancied the idea that I call it this way

and it went that way... Damn "They read my post"

but I always thought that was tin foil hat

......? Am I getting the jist of this or am I totally off?

 

Also I always love to see investigation.

I think tracking performance of said theory worthy of exploration.

 

A flip of the coin is random,

but random chance too can be predicted.

Some would give heads 65%.

while it is well known with random mathematicians,

that spinning pennies has over 75% tails chance

and balancing pennies on edge and banging the table results

in a predictable manner as well (I forget the details).

My point is that why not track, Analise whatever you can to

see if you can get an edge.

That's what I'm told anyway, is what it's all about.

It doesn't matter sometime if most think it's futile.

Trying for yourself is what matters. If your wrong at least you tried.

 

I would suggest a spreadsheet. Last what? Hourly candle bullish or bearish. mark it down.

Record performance the next day. Keep a record for a year. Then get back to us.

JK, you should try to back date/test it if you can. Let us know.

in short absolutely not.. and i would not recommend anyone trading off the last candle..

might as well go the casino and put your money on RED.. because you will be.

 

AH settlements will totally screw you. You cant tell direction after the market closes.