This is not meant to be a political debate thread, although I'm not ignorant enough to believe I can ask to keep politics out and have that happen. So comment however you like. I personally do not like the option of voting for either candidate, so let me start with that.
Looking at data, probabilities, etc. through an objective filter, I have believed Obama will be re-elected for at least the last 12-18 months. I believe his chances are better than 65% likely. Here is my current projection of the electoral map, with four states too close and/or uncertain to project. Notes and link to exercise below map:
Project your own map here: http://electoralmap.net/2012/myPrediction.php
Notes: Of the states projected, a few seem somewhat uncertain. Iowa has been consistently blue in recent elections, and is friendly to same-sex marriage, thus I am projecting it blue based on existing polling. North Carolina could conceivably flip to blue, but if it did, it would likely be in a very large Obama victory, so I am leaving it red for this exercise, at least for now. Pennsylvania could flip to red, but like NC it would only do so in a big Romney victory, which IMO seems unlikely at this point. Also, PA is where in 2008 Obama really fired up his primary campaign. Florida could flip blue, but most of FL is very red, and Rubio has a chance to be the nominee. I expect Romney to spend whatever it takes in any scenario to keep FL as IMO he has 0% chance of winning without carrying these 29 EVs. MO, WI, and MI could be in play down the road, but right now they appear to be likely to remain their customary colors. Romney needs tons of traction with economic debate points to bring WI and MI into play, and Ryan does not like how Romney has campaigned, so the Ryan effect is muted thus far in WI.
Again... just looking at probabilities here... it appears all Obama has to do in order to retain the presidency is to either win Ohio, or win Virginia with either Colorado or New Hampshire as well. Romney MUST win all of Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina to have ANY shot at unseating the incumbent.
I welcome anyone who has a map with even one difference to go over their view on what the most probable outcomes are. I may vote for someone other than these two turds, even though I am in PA which could be a tossup state. Lastly, remember, there is a huge difference in this thread between wanting a candidate to win, and actually analyzing the data and concluding that he is likely to win.
Looking at data, probabilities, etc. through an objective filter, I have believed Obama will be re-elected for at least the last 12-18 months. I believe his chances are better than 65% likely. Here is my current projection of the electoral map, with four states too close and/or uncertain to project. Notes and link to exercise below map:
Project your own map here: http://electoralmap.net/2012/myPrediction.php
Notes: Of the states projected, a few seem somewhat uncertain. Iowa has been consistently blue in recent elections, and is friendly to same-sex marriage, thus I am projecting it blue based on existing polling. North Carolina could conceivably flip to blue, but if it did, it would likely be in a very large Obama victory, so I am leaving it red for this exercise, at least for now. Pennsylvania could flip to red, but like NC it would only do so in a big Romney victory, which IMO seems unlikely at this point. Also, PA is where in 2008 Obama really fired up his primary campaign. Florida could flip blue, but most of FL is very red, and Rubio has a chance to be the nominee. I expect Romney to spend whatever it takes in any scenario to keep FL as IMO he has 0% chance of winning without carrying these 29 EVs. MO, WI, and MI could be in play down the road, but right now they appear to be likely to remain their customary colors. Romney needs tons of traction with economic debate points to bring WI and MI into play, and Ryan does not like how Romney has campaigned, so the Ryan effect is muted thus far in WI.
Again... just looking at probabilities here... it appears all Obama has to do in order to retain the presidency is to either win Ohio, or win Virginia with either Colorado or New Hampshire as well. Romney MUST win all of Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina to have ANY shot at unseating the incumbent.
I welcome anyone who has a map with even one difference to go over their view on what the most probable outcomes are. I may vote for someone other than these two turds, even though I am in PA which could be a tossup state. Lastly, remember, there is a huge difference in this thread between wanting a candidate to win, and actually analyzing the data and concluding that he is likely to win.
