Unusual Options Activity thread - Page 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by o7media 

 

$5 million bet, not a $5 million loss.

All I'm trying to say is venom's idea of using options volume to predict earnings doesn't always work. I'm not trying to speculate on whether or not someone made or lost money. 

Edit: sorry I remembered it incorrectly, it was a 4 million bet with 115/130 14k contracts on both sides (http://www.theoptionsinsider.com/unusualactivity/?id=9662) 

The 115 were on the bid and the 130 were on the ask so it was obviously a bullish play though for earnings.

Got out this morning on the spike - but also thinking of adding again if it dips below $8 (the stock).

Quote:

Originally Posted by o7media 

 

Well of course it doesn't always work, nothing does.

 

But there is a strategy to using unusual options activity to determine the direction of stocks otherwise that website or sites like OptionsMonster wouldn't exist. Not all of the plays in this thread have played out either, but a lot of them have.

 

The thing with earnings is that they usually bring large % gains on the options because of the large swings. Even if you only get it right half of the time you could make money, maybe even less than half of the time since the options typically more than double on earnings plays. While on ones that you are wrong on may not even lose 100% of the value.

I absolutely agree with you. In fact, one page back I pointed out how there were some big block buys on SHLD calls for earnings. SHLD beat yesterday and calls became baggers. 

I was just pointing out that it doesn't always work, contrary to what Venom posted about the direction being "pretty obvious" if there is unusual activity. The NFLX situation was interesting to me and I wanted to share it because 3 of us here at HSM were short NFLX the day that the massive blocks went through and I ended up closing positions because we were unsure what to make of the big buys.

Quote:

Originally Posted by chhansen 

I absolutely agree with you. In fact, one page back I pointed out how there were some big block buys on SHLD calls for earnings. SHLD beat yesterday and calls became baggers. 

 

I was just pointing out that it doesn't always work, contrary to what Venom posted about the direction being "pretty obvious" if there is unusual activity. The NFLX situation was interesting to me and I wanted to share it because 3 of us here at HSM were short NFLX the day that the massive blocks went through and I ended up closing positions because we were unsure what to make of the big buys.

Yea but of the dozen or so "unusual" positions entered, almost all but two or three have been correct.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venom08 

Yea but of the dozen or so "unusual" positions entered, almost all but two or three have been correct.

Once again, I did not say this didn't work. In fact, if you look at the previous page where I pointed out the SHLD activity from 3 days ago, SHLD is actually up about 10% since Tuesday after beating earnings yesterday morning. 

I just wanted to share a time when this didn't work as well and to remind everyone that past performance doesn't guarantee the future. Hell, PCLN almost had a 2:1 call/put ratio pre earnings last week.

I haven't been following this thread, but if you guys have really been right that consistently then I'll shut up since I don't know what your strategy is and if it's working for you then it's working for you 

Quote:

Originally Posted by o7media 

It's more about big money rather than put/call ratios. There can be more volume on the puts overall but larger insider bets being made on the call side, if that makes sense =/

Yeah, we're not trying to follow the mob. We're trying to follow the one guy betting 10 million on some unheard of stock going up 20% next week.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Internationalstocks 

I'm thinking of getting more of the weekly BAC $8 calls for next week. At $.16 now

Very happy with the ones I picked up last week. Sitting at $.20 now 

Same - good call with BAC.  Got back in Friday afternoon at $.14 (stock at $8) and just letting this second trade ride out till BAC gets around $8.20-ish. :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by pftq 

Same - good call with BAC.  Got back in Friday afternoon at $.14 (stock at $8) and just letting this second trade ride out till BAC gets around $8.20-ish. :)

Usually Call options decay and drop when a stock sits flat,drops or zig zags but notice how today even when the stock dropped back down to $8.13 from 8.17 and then just sat there that the weekly $8 call options did not drop from $.20

I am seeing this as a bullish signal. Anyone else see this as bullish?

Quote:

Originally Posted by o7media 

 

Meh. It's ITM so not really. It's priced accurately.

Do you see BAC dropping or climbing from here. I see a base building for a pop.