HotStockMarket › Forums › HSM Stock Forum › Stock Market Today › Stock Market Today : July 2nd - 6th
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Stock Market Today : July 2nd - 6th

post #1 of 372
Thread Starter 

Stock Market Today : July 2nd - 6th

Quote:
Wall Street Week Ahead: Can EU deal lift stocks for more than a day?

By Angela Moon

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks finished the first half of the year with a bang as investors welcomed news that the euro zone is a step closer to solving its 30-month-long debt crisis. Now for the question: Is this rally strong enough to last for more than a day?

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted their best daily percentage gains since December on Friday after an agreement by European leaders to stabilize the region's troubled banks, a pact that helped remove some of the uncertainty that has plagued markets.

"That is the major question. Can this fuel a longer-term rally? It can, but only to some degree if, over the weekend and the course of next week, we don't see any major push back or headlines that suggest that this deal is not going to happen," said Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial.

"But I don't think this is a major game changer. I do, however, think that this is really the first time we got a relatively immediate answer to what they (the euro-zone leaders) are going to do about the issue."

Under pressure to prevent a catastrophic breakup of their single currency, euro-zone leaders agreed on Friday to let their rescue fund inject aid directly into stricken banks starting next year and intervene in bond markets to support troubled member-states.

They also pledged to create a single banking supervisor for euro-zone banks based around the European Central Bank in a landmark first step toward a European banking union that could help shore up struggling member Spain.

PARTY TIME

Wall Street's previous reaction to euro-zone bailout packages or other rescue plans had been somewhat muted. Initial gains would quickly disappear by the day's end as investors realized that there isn't a quick fix to the region's problems.

On Friday, it was a different story. The three major U.S. stock indexes jumped 1.5 percent to 2 percent shortly after the opening bell on news of the euro-zone agreement.

By the close, stocks ended at session highs with the major indexes up between 2 percent and 3 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) surged 277.83 points, or 2.20 percent, to end at 12,880.09. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) jumped 33.12 points, or 2.49 percent, to finish at 1,362.16. And the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) shot up 85.56 points, or 3.00 percent, to close at 2,935.05.

For the week, the Dow rose 1.9 percent, the S&P 500 advanced 2 percent and the Nasdaq gained 1.5 percent.

For the month, the Dow added 3.9 percent, the S&P 500 rose 4 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 3.8 percent.

But for the second quarter, the Dow dropped 2.5 percent, the S&P 500 slid 3.3 percent and the Nasdaq lost 5.1 percent.

Despite the weak second quarter, the three major U.S. stock indexes wrapped up the first half of the year with decent gains: The Dow was up 5.4 percent, the S&P 500 was up 8.3 percent and the Nasdaq was up 12.7 percent.

"The next question is whether the ESM/EFSF will have enough capital and assuming they don't, will the ECB chip in by giving it a bank license, thus leveraging its size. That is yet to be determined," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co in New York.

"For now, party on and turn that hourglass over as more time has been bought. But only the symptoms are being fought as the underlying disease of excessive debt and lack of growth still remains."

The leaders of the 17 European Union countries agreed on a series of short-term steps to shore up their monetary union and bring down the borrowing costs of Spain and Italy, seen as too big to bail out.

To that end, the euro zone's temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) rescue funds will be used "in a flexible and efficient manner in order to stabilize markets" to support countries that comply with EU budget policy recommendations, a joint statement said.

Any market reaction to further developments next week could be exaggerated by lighter-than-usual volume. Wall Street trading desks may be more sparsely populated because it will be a short week. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Wednesday, the Fourth of July, in observance of Independence Day. That could break any weekly momentum when Wall Street resumes trading on Thursday.

ALL EYES ON THE ECB

The market's focus shifts to the European Central Bank next week as investors wait to see whether it cuts interest rates to complement the measures taken by EU leaders to shore up banks and bring down borrowing costs for Spain and Italy.

Most economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to cut borrowing costs on Thursday, July 5, at its meeting, which takes place against a darkening economic backdrop.

But internal resistance to the central bank reviving its bond-buying program remains high. The ECB has already loosened its collateral rules to make it easier for banks in Spain to access its funds.

"Investors have to be cautious because the market may be getting ahead of itself. We really don't have any details. The big question is still what direction the ECB takes next week," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.

"It's (the EU deal) certainly not a silver bullet for the debt crisis, but the market is kind of acting like it is. It may set us up for another push down in the weeks ahead."

Stocks had enjoyed a run earlier this month on hopes that global central banks would announce additional measures to stimulate economic growth, which has been tepid.

On June 20, the Federal Reserve extended its "Operation Twist" program to sell short-term securities and buy longer-term ones to keep long-term borrowing costs down. But investors were disappointed when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who spoke at a news conference after the Fed's two-day policy meeting, gave few hints that further monetary stimulus was imminent, denting hopes of cheap money in the equities market.

European bond yields will be closely watched next week. Madrid will auction three-year, four-year and 10-year bonds at a primary auction on Thursday in another big test for Spanish yields that are still not far below 7 percent.

France will sell between 7 billion and 8 billion euros in long-term bonds on Thursday.

Next week's data includes the Institute for Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index and construction spending on Monday, followed by factory orders and June car sales on Tuesday.

After the holiday on Wednesday, investors will face a blitz of economic indicators. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and mortgage data, ADP's private-sector payrolls report and the ISM's U.S. services-sector index will be released.

On Friday, the government's June nonfarm payrolls report will come out. Economists polled by Reuters have forecast a gain of 90,000 jobs, with the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 8.2 percent.

fut_image.ashx?ym.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?es.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?nq.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?er2.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?nkd.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?cl.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?ng.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?ho.png&rev=634766039820168750
fut_image.ashx?gc.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?si.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?pl.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?hg.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?pa.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?lc.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?lh.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?fc.png&rev=634766039820168750
fut_image.ashx?zc.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?zl.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?zm.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?zo.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?zr.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?zs.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?zw.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?pb.png&rev=634766039820168750
fut_image.ashx?cc.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?ct.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?jo.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?kc.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?lb.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?sb.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?zb.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?zn.png&rev=634766039820168750
fut_image.ashx?dx.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?6e.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?6j.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?6b.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?6c.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?6s.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?6a.png&rev=634766039820168750 fut_image.ashx?6n.png&rev=634766039820168750

  

  

  

  

     

 

mktstats_image.ashx?0&rev=634694766276358750  mktstats_image.ashx?1&rev=634694766276358750  mktstats_image.ashx?3&rev=634694766276358750

mktstats_image.ashx?4&rev=634694766276358750

 

Monthly Weekly Daily Today 10:02 PM ET
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Monday Jul 2

 

2-Yr Note Settlement

5-Yr Note Settlement

7-Yr Note Settlement


ISM Mfg Index
[Report][Star]
10:00 AM ET







Redbook
[Bullet
8:55 AM ET

Factory Orders
[Report][djStar]
10:00 AM ET


NYSE Early Close

SIFMA Rec. Early Close 2:00 ET
 

US Holiday: Independence Day

Bond, Equity Markets Closed
 

Weekly Bill Settlement





Jobless Claims
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET




ISM Non-Mfg Index
[Report][djStar]
10:00 AM ET







Money Supply
[Bullet
4:30 PM ET



Treasury STRIPS
[Bullet
3:00 PM ET
Equity Settlement
7-06-12
Equity Settlement
7-09-12
  Equity Settlement
7-10-12
Equity Settlement
7-11-12

 

Jul 1 - Jul 7 Filter
Date 10:03pm Currency Impact   Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart
Sun
Jul 1
7:30pm AUD
 
AIG Manufacturing Index
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
42.4
ic_chart.png
7:50pm JPY
 
Tankan Manufacturing Index
calendar_detail.gif
 
-4
-4
ic_chart.png
7:50pm JPY
 
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index
calendar_detail.gif
 
6
5
ic_chart.png
8:30pm AUD
 
MI Inflation Gauge m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
0.0%
ic_chart.png
10:30pm CNY
 
HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
48.1
ic_chart.png
Mon
Jul 2
2:30am AUD
 
Commodity Prices y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
-9.9%
ic_chart.png
3:15am CHF
 
Retail Sales y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.9%
0.1%
ic_chart.png
3:30am CHF
 
SVME PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
44.6
45.4
ic_chart.png
3:45am EUR
 
Italian Manufacturing PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
44.6
44.8
ic_chart.png
4:00am EUR
 
Final Manufacturing PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
44.8
44.8
ic_chart.png
4:00am EUR
 
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
calendar_detail.gif
 
10.4%
10.2%
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
Manufacturing PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
46.7
45.9
ic_chart.png
5:00am EUR
 
Unemployment Rate
calendar_detail.gif
 
11.1%
11.0%
ic_chart.png
All Day CAD
 
Bank Holiday
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
9:00am USD
 
Final Manufacturing PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
53.0
52.9
ic_chart.png
10:00am USD
 
ISM Manufacturing PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
52.1
53.5
ic_chart.png
10:00am USD
 
Construction Spending m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.3%
0.3%
ic_chart.png
10:00am USD
 
ISM Manufacturing Prices
calendar_detail.gif
 
45.8
47.5
ic_chart.png
1:15pm USD
 
FOMC Member Williams Speaks
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
7:50pm JPY
 
Monetary Base y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
3.6%
2.4%
ic_chart.png
9:00pm CNY
 
Non-Manufacturing PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
55.2
ic_chart.png
9:00pm NZD
 
ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
-4.2%
ic_chart.png
9:30pm AUD
 
Building Approvals m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
5.1%
-8.7%
ic_chart.png
9:30pm JPY
 
Average Cash Earnings y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.6%
0.2%
ic_chart.png
Tue
Jul 3
12:30am AUD
 
Cash Rate
calendar_detail.gif
 
3.50%
3.50%
ic_chart.png
12:30am AUD
 
RBA Rate Statement
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
3rd-6th GBP
 
Halifax HPI m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
-0.3%
0.5%
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
Construction PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
53.1
54.4
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
Net Lending to Individuals m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
1.1B
1.4B
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
M4 Money Supply m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
1.4%
1.1%
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
Mortgage Approvals
calendar_detail.gif
 
51K
52K
ic_chart.png
5:00am EUR
 
PPI m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
-0.2%
0.0%
ic_chart.png
10:00am USD
 
Factory Orders m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.1%
-0.6%
ic_chart.png
All Day USD
 
Total Vehicle Sales
calendar_detail.gif
 
14.0M
13.8M
ic_chart.png
7:01pm GBP
 
BRC Shop Price Index y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
1.5%
ic_chart.png
7:30pm AUD
 
AIG Services Index
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
43.5
ic_chart.png
9:30pm AUD
 
Retail Sales m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.3%
-0.2%
ic_chart.png
Wed
Jul 4
3:45am EUR
 
Italian Services PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
42.6
42.8
ic_chart.png
4:00am EUR
 
Final Services PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
46.8
46.8
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
Services PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
53.0
53.3
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q
calendar_detail.gif
 
-7.9B
-8.5B
ic_chart.png
5:00am EUR
 
Retail Sales m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.2%
-1.0%
ic_chart.png
5:00am EUR
 
Final GDP q/q
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.0%
0.0%
ic_chart.png
All Day USD
 
Bank Holiday
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
 
 
9:30pm AUD
 
Trade Balance
calendar_detail.gif
 
-0.51B
-0.20B
ic_chart.png
Thu
Jul 5
Tentative EUR
 
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
6.04|3.3
 
Tentative EUR
 
French 10-y Bond Auction
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
2.46|2.0
 
6:00am EUR
 
German Factory Orders m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.2%
-1.9%
ic_chart.png
7:00am GBP
 
Asset Purchase Facility
calendar_detail.gif
 
375B
325B
ic_chart.png
7:00am GBP
 
Official Bank Rate
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.50%
0.50%
ic_chart.png
Tentative GBP
 
MPC Rate Statement
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
7:30am USD
 
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
66.7%
ic_chart.png
7:45am EUR
 
Minimum Bid Rate
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
0.75%
1.00%
ic_chart.png
8:15am USD
 
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
calendar_detail.gif
 
101K
133K
ic_chart.png
8:30am EUR
 
ECB Press Conference
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
 
 
8:30am USD
 
Unemployment Claims
calendar_detail.gif
 
385K
386K
ic_chart.png
10:00am USD
 
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
53.1
53.7
ic_chart.png
10:30am USD
 
Natural Gas Storage
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
57B
ic_chart.png
11:00am USD
 
Crude Oil Inventories
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
-0.1M
ic_chart.png
7:30pm AUD
 
AIG Construction Index
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
34.7
ic_chart.png
Fri
Jul 6
1:00am JPY
 
Leading Indicators
calendar_detail.gif
 
95.3%
95.6%
ic_chart.png
2:45am EUR
 
French Gov Budget Balance
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
-59.9B
ic_chart.png
2:45am EUR
 
French Trade Balance
calendar_detail.gif
 
-5.4B
-5.8B
ic_chart.png
3:00am CHF
 
Foreign Currency Reserves
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
303.8B
ic_chart.png
3:15am CHF
 
CPI m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
-0.3%
0.0%
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
PPI Input m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
-2.1%
-2.5%
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
PPI Output m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
-0.2%
-0.2%
ic_chart.png
6:00am EUR
 
German Industrial Production m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.3%
-2.2%
ic_chart.png
8:30am CAD
 
Building Permits m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
-0.7%
-5.2%
ic_chart.png
8:30am CAD
 
Employment Change
calendar_detail.gif
 
5.2K
7.7K
ic_chart.png
8:30am CAD
 
Unemployment Rate
calendar_detail.gif
 
7.3%
7.3%
ic_chart.png
8:30am USD
 
Non-Farm Employment Change
calendar_detail.gif
 
92K
69K
ic_chart.png
8:30am USD
 
Unemployment Rate
calendar_detail.gif
 
8.2%
8.2%
ic_chart.png
8:30am USD
 
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.2%
0.1%
ic_chart.png
10:00am CAD
 
Ivey PMI
calendar_detail.gif
 
55.1
60.5
ic_chart.png

 

>>>will this week be up, down, or flat? vote in --> Poll: Marcos Weekly Sentiment Poll (7/2-7/6)

votemarcosx3x.png

THE STOCK MARKET THREAD GUIDELINES

  • Respect your fellow traders. This means no insults, derogatory remarks or any other type of behavior that derails the thread.
  • Keep off topic chatter to a minimum. If the market is flat and nothing is happening, we do not mind hearing about your weekend and your hot girlfriend. If the market is moving and trades are flying the best thing to do is post important stock related events that can help your fellow traders.
  • Are you new? Hold your questions until the end of the trading day, or post them in the Stock Market Education section.

 

ding! ding! ding!

 

post #2 of 372
Thread Starter 

stock market technical analysis w/ brian shannon week ending 6/29/12

 

post #3 of 372
Thread Starter 

108833.gif


Edited by Cy McCaffrey - 6/30/12 at 10:59am
post #4 of 372
Thread Starter 

market roadmap for the second-half of the year

(source)

 

Quote:

It's impossible to look ahead to the second-half of the year unless you know what you're trying to see. There's an overwhelming number of data points, stories and scenarios coming out everyday, swamping your senses and making it all but impossible to judge anything for yourself.

To help narrow down to the news that really matters to your portfolio, Breakout welcomed Jeff Kleintop, Chief Market Strategist at LPL Financial to lay out the roadmap of what will impact the markets most through year-end.

  • Second-Quarter Earnings Season

First up, earnings. The first Dow component Alcoa (AA) is expected to report results after-the-bell on July 9th, unofficially kicking off the Q2 earnings season. "A lot of people think the S&P 500 is GDP and if GDP is slowing sharply then earnings are slowing sharply as well; probably not true," says Kleintop. In fact a degree of weakness can support earnings in some cases. For example Kleintop believes a lack of hiring will support strong margins as the cost of hiring and training will be lower.

Further, Kleintop says the impact of Europe will be less than expected and something the market could "look through" regardless.

  • November Elections Impact on Market

The election will come to the fore after Labor Day by American tradition. Kleintop says the State polls are more important than the Presidential race. "The Senate actually holds more impact on what's going to happen than any of the other elections," he says.

Two thirds of the Senate elections involve Democrat incumbents. A swing of three will shift power to the Republicans, a prospect Kleintop says has "profound implications" for heavily regulated and legislated sectors. If it looks like there's going to be a shift in power, traders will start positioning themselves accordingly.

  • The Looming Fiscal Cliff

Already a subject of discussion and concern, the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, payroll tax cuts, and spending cuts all loom. By Kleintop's math it amounts to about 3.5% of GDP, more than America has ever cut since 1947.

If Republicans take Congress he believes they'll buy themselves time and "kick the can down the road 3 to 6 months to give them the opportunity to really address these budget issues and mitigate some of the more negative and onerous consequences."

Let's face it, the Democrats will kick the can as well. It's what Americans do.

He's a sunny optimist in terms of how these things play out but Kleintop still has a hard time getting too excited about stocks here. Calling this a "base building year" he's looking for the S&P500 to be around 1,375 by year end. One can only imagine what his target would be if he thought these factors weren't going to play out so well.

post #5 of 372

Taking it slow this week, closed a lot of my longs (ANF, KO, STO) for some love.  Still have a few positions, but definitely not going to be any buying this week with the holiday and I am anxious to see the employment numbers before initiating any other positions.  Anyone got any guesses on the numbers?

post #6 of 372
8.3% and will keep going up.
post #7 of 372
Quote:

Originally Posted by z00lander View Post

 

Anyone got any guesses on the numbers?

I was thinking that the dog days of summer tend to be trendy. When I look at the last decade, if unemployment was on the rise from April to May it continued in June.

 

jobs.gif

 

But I think YOY numbers look pretty good.

post #8 of 372

We should be able to test 1380 this week IMO. Gonna be light volume and easy to move either way, but had a really bullish close this past week.

post #9 of 372

spiderman you sneaky b*tch.

post #10 of 372

Monday might be nice pull back on news from Germany.  It looks like German opposition filed papers in court arguing that the ruling achieved on Friday is unconstitutional.  Joachim Gauck mentioned that he will not sign document until court ruling.  Surprisingly can't find anything pertaining to this in English.

post #11 of 372

worth noting china manufacturing pmi came in at 50.1 vs 49.9.

not a good # but still above 50.

post #12 of 372
I think at this point European news beats all other news. So we'll probably open lower on Monday.
post #13 of 372

Nice article from a portuguese economic newspaper, Here is in google translator...

 

 

And if Germany is preparing to exit the euro? ...

 

 

 

Another summit, another journey, one more ride. Right? Wrong. There is now a difference. Huge. Spain and Italy have adopted a discourse of distress. It is time we face the hard questions: and if it even goes awry? And if the euro is over? And the bottom Germany are preparing not ours but his resignation of the euro?
 
The European Union is on the verge of collapse. Speaking is not scaremongering, there is talk that became denial. The alarm has sounded throughout Europe. It sounded yesterday, incidentally. From Italy and from Spain, countries that ultimately are not too big to fail, are just too big to save.
 
In Italy, the trap is called debt. It's giant. And the fact that it is largely internal and not external debt begins to no longer be sufficient mitigation. Why pay higher interest rates is for a debt so large, enough to annihilate the surplus accounts of the Italian. In addition, the prime minister that markets like the technocrat Mario Monti, has a very limited policy space to implement austerity measures. Because it lacks the legitimacy of the vote. And because the parliamentary coalition is fragile.
 
In Spain, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is a disgrace. Wallow in contradictions and proves incapable of political leadership in a crisis that is haywire. The intervention with some Spanish banks in trouble proved to be ineffective to reassure markets. And so the markets are charging interest rates unaffordable to the Spanish sovereign debt itself. More: there are banks that are no longer able to finance itself in the markets, Rajoy said yesterday. It is assumed that it referred not to the banks in trouble, because these are "covered" by the help of a hundred billion. Would then be talking about the largest Spanish banks, Santander, BBVA and La Caixa?
 
This scenario brutally distress increases the pressure on Germany. What is missing, the French dip? What is happening is the precipitation of the need to support Italy or (and?) Spain, precisely what we always said we would kill the euro. Because there was, and there is enough money for a ransom to these countries. And that's why the Summit will evaluate "soft rescues," such as the purchase by the Stabilization Fund debt of these countries in the secondary market. It is not to save these countries as a rescue Portuguese. It is because there is no money for it.
 
Now imagine yourself in the shoes of a German. It has inflation under control, is funding to interest rates near zero and looks away and sees the country asking him to save their money problems. Acode them? Or shakes them?
 
The answer is quite speculative, but no reply. There are rumors of a famous study supposedly made by Germany that evaluates the impact on GDP of the order of the euro. Finland, unlike other countries (eg Portugal), only lent money to Greece against collateral, "gold" (titles of high "rating" and "cash"). Markets lend money at zero rates to Germany, which means they prefer not to make money and have a shelter - or even have an option on the March ... There are German companies like Volkswagen, which already are making contracts with clauses that refer not to the euro but "the currency effect." And unconfirmed reports of large European banks have contingency plans for the end of the euro. Be the contagion effects of a disorderly exit. Whether a voluntary withdrawal from countries such as Finland. Or even Germany.
 
Yes, Germany. Atrevamo us to pure speculation. The solution to the crisis seems to go just for a solution of federalism, as argued yesterday Viviane Reding, vice president of the European Commission. But that federalism, which would involve the creation of a United States of Europe, because it simply seems distant ... Europeans do not seem to want it. And federalism can not be at the root is not democracy.
 
If federalism with democracy (and there is no federalism), then Germany will be less representative power by the people of today who has the power of money. This idea does not please the Germans, as seen in the recent idea of ​​power in the European Central Bank to be distributed according to the position in the capital, which would give more power to Germany.
 
If Germany does not want to lose that power that federalism would impose (just see how today has more strength than the European institutions and the Commission and Council), and plenty of shows that passing bad checks, then the alternative for a continent steeped in a crisis may be the long burst. Especially since the moment that Germany no longer profit from the crisis as it has profited so far: financing rates to almost zero and "borrow" the 3% or 4%, is low risk of Germany and weak currency country the south.
 
Europe faces a scenario of stagnation the Japanese, a long period of no or weak growth. If Germany out of the euro, after such a Finland to open that door, will face an immediate drop in GDP and an assessment of their "new" money, which would reduce their competitiveness. For other countries, like Portugal, it would be the reverse phenomenon: would get a weaker currency could depreciate over, what would be good. But lose the ability to control inflation.
 
What is at stake is more than just finance, is a policy aimed at building a relationship of peace between the peoples of Europe. But finances are bursting at the seams of this construction. And it's too much at stake for us not to worry. Hopefully the Germans like most other European peoples than European people like them.
post #14 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by rg7803 View Post

Nice article from a portuguese economic newspaper, Here is in google translator...

 

 

And if Germany is preparing to exit the euro? ...

 

 

wow....interesting read.....thumbup.gif

post #15 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by nowwhat View Post

The Great Indu 12,500 Upspike !.....

by nowwhat June 2012

Lol....For I was ALL OVER that freaking move !.....

Thru my Publishing / Broadcasting and Reporting of it here (in HSM Real Time)......

The largest 2 day gain in 11 months......  

 

Is typical of just what "my FAVORITE Levels" produce.

 

And it just serves to demonstrate that one don't need no showy charts to be right on top of a scene.

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=djia&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=1643&style=320&freq=9&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=1&rand=1324433202&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

Nice eh ?.....Lol !

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=djia&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=1643&style=320&freq=9&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=18&rand=194394996&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=djia&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=1643&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=9&rand=1651649960&compidx=&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

 

The Great Indu 12,500 Upspike !.....by nowwhat June 2012

post #16 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by rg7803 View Post

Nice article from a portuguese economic newspaper, Here is in google translator...

 

 

And if Germany is preparing to exit the euro? ...

 

NOOOO!! (lol) That's gonna leave a mark

 

My USO calls were up 314% on Friday and I held over the weekend thinking there would be a lovefest in the EU this weekend. eek.gif

 

Where's that "stupid" pic??

 

Good stuff though rg, thanks for posting.

post #17 of 372
Quote:
Originally Posted by rg7803 View Post

Nice article from a portuguese economic newspaper, Here is in google translator...

 

 

And if Germany is preparing to exit the euro? ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

image

post #18 of 372

At this point nothing they have done has solved anything other than kick the can and slowly increase the amount of debt they have to pay down some time in the future. I just don't see this working as a long term solution.

 

worth reading:

 

 


Edited by CanuckMom - 7/1/12 at 7:55pm
post #19 of 372

go back to your hole.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nowwhat View Post

 

The Great Indu 12,500 Upspike !.....by nowwhat June 2012

post #20 of 372

LOL i think thats a big fat NO.. never ever .. cold day in hell if that occurs.

I wont get into the semantics.. but its more applicable that Russia adopts the euro (joke) than Germany leaving..

Quote:
Originally Posted by rg7803 View Post

Nice article from a portuguese economic newspaper, Here is in google translator...

 

 

And if Germany is preparing to exit the euro? ...

 

 

 

I find it funny that people are focused on spain and others,... all these countries who dont have central banks or access to print money, therefore are at the whim of speculation. Where as the US is the next shoe to drop, do any of you think we can afford 7% interest.. hell no... and the only way to deflect this attribute is to print.. and print and print and yes thats right PRINT.

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Stock Market Today
HotStockMarket › Forums › HSM Stock Forum › Stock Market Today › Stock Market Today : July 2nd - 6th