20% Rally in S&P by Year-End?

Ha!

 

I just posted that to the main thread.

 

Its always good to hear the bull case, these guys want to make a name for themselves by calling out the most insane targets.

Here is my visual summary of his mental state:



I stand behind my claim the HOY is in at ES 1419.75, and assigned a 40% chance we would break that almost a week ago. Since then we moved down, I'd put the chances of a new HOY now at more like 30-35%... doable, but 1500 is maybe 10% and 1575 more like 2-3% likely IMO.

This kind of analyst call fascinates me.

 

These guys (5-8 of the head guys in the office) are not stupid, they scheduled a meeting, they ordered snacks, everybody came in wearing $2000 suits.

 

They sat down, started up the projector and laid out their plan. The analyst had spreadsheets, the economist showed some bar charts, everybody laid out their case and they, as a group, decided that they would go on CNBC and call for 1575 S&P.

 

I just cant wrap my head around it.

 

Do they not care that it will not happen?

uhm no....i would say there is a better chance of a 20% sell off from here than a gain of that magnitude...but dont think we go 20% in either direction

The thing that makes me jealous here is that these guys will be pulling in $500,000 bonuses this year, regardless of whether than 1575 happens or not.

down with them all

i too think the highs for the year are in already

Yeah!

 

Then hire me to fill the position!

A couple of months ago I would have called them crazy. But, I don't think I'm a permabear anymore. Not a permabull either, but I wouldn't count out 1500+ by end of year.

 

Not saying it'll happen. But I think we're looking more bullish than bearish right now. Between us making new lows and new highs I'd have to say new highs are coming. 

remem...the more you hear how good it is and how its up up and away the more likely we are at or near a top....with downside a more likely outcome
thats just how its goes

good.. technicals and insane calls keeping this in "trader's market" mode

 

Funniest post of the year!!!

Lot of bears in one thread lol

for such a bull thread

All these bears make me want to put my bear costume on and run like the wind.

 

If you take a step back, being bearish right now is like a guy in New Orleans a week after Katrina going "We're about to get a big hurricane".

i dont see the correlation (thankfully) ...but as long as you do alrighty then

Absolutely!  Recall Sept 2008 when Cramer and all the talking heads were saying that the market was strong and then a few days later they had to eat their words.  The tried to keep you in the market for the first week or so and then finally told you to sell.  You have to look at the overall economy and if you did that between 2005-2007 you would have seen something bad coming.  I was in California where they wanted some $400K for a 1000 sq/ft house, an increase in value of over 100% in about 5 years.  I looked around and didn't see anyone getting their wealth increased 100% in 5 years, so it was evident it was a bubble and I waited until last year to finally buy a home.  This time?  Obviously sovereign debt and while I am still investing, it is for short term gains since the most significant thing to happen this year are those events when governments kick the can down the road and propogate the issues. 

 

CNBC is always going to tell you its a good time to get in the market lol.