IMO this is the toughest vote yet of the macro polls, those comprising time frames of at least 50 handles or more than 1 month duration. I see plenty of ways that stocks can indeed post new highs, with twist being extended today, Europe having some potential to iron their financial knickers properly for once, the US possibly printing more money, the possibility that our economy improves some in coming quarters... but a lot of that sounds pretty tenuous. I think the chances of making a new S&P HOY are about 40-60. In the end, there are two main reasons why I'm voting that the highs are in.
1) I expected a very choppy wide-ranging summer. I figured the high end of the primary chop zone would be around 1380. We're getting close to that level, and price is a bit extended... bears have not gotten much traction but could soon. If this summer chop in wide range of multiple legs of persistent up and down moves continues, we could get past ES 1420, but more likely price will reverse first and we will get one more down leg this summer. Therefore I see us netting out as pretty flat to slightly down this summer. This makes my decision something more along the lines of: "will the S&P rally 70-90 handles from Labor Day to New Year's Eve?" At that point, I start thinking about a 3-4 month rally of about 7% and I get a bit nervous about bulls' chances.
2) One really good down leg where selling snowballs, or is driven by one good black swan type event in Europe or elsewhere (subway bomb in DC, take your pick) and the market could flush to a low enough level where nobody in their right mind would confidently predict a new HOY.
But like I said at top, this is a really tough call. If we were 10 handles higher right now, who knows, maybe my vote would be yes.