Quote:
Originally Posted by
barbellman 
TLT - Bond market
Even though we have this huge move up the bonds aren't dumping like I would've expected them to. TLT can change in a heart beat though if we power higher and looks steady this could become a great short where lot of people who rushed into this are probably uncommited. For now though, it's still holding up and MA's sloped higher.
Wanted to take a closer look at the TLT from a 60min perspective in comparison to the daily .....
Daily is showing a negative divergence of upward price movement and decreasing volume at what is essentially a micro double top area. That black doji should be a warning sign of possible exhaustion especially after such a significant buy climax as seen at the end of May. One could argue right now that the gap fill and bounce off the $124 support line which you previously marked in your chart is quite weak.
Now let's get a closer look via the 60min ....... You can see the double top area more cleanly here with the upper wicks and on lighter volume. In order to break a 50% Fib area and the creek (very important for bond bulls), it's going to take more significant buying ...... otherwise this is a sucker area to get long. As you can see down on the volume, nobody was particularly in a hurry to get in at those levels. One also has to take into consideration what is going on this weekend with Greece though, as everyone is in "waiting" mode.
