Trades and discussions

post #1 of 179
Thread Starter 

Ok let me first start off by welcoming you to this group. This group is intended for the greatest minds of HSM. I know alot of guys have been complaining about the threads filling up w/ newbies asking tons of questions and making tons of stupid comments. So for those of you who feel that way, I hope that this thread is a sanctuary for you.

 

For us, by us.

post #2 of 179

A group for the greatest minds?

 

I guess you need somebody on the lower end of the bell curve, I volunteer myself!

post #3 of 179
Thread Starter 

dollarsentiment.png

 

public seems extremely bullish on the dollar. notice how when we hit these extreme levels, the dollar has had significant corrections

post #4 of 179

Hi, I'm Kyle, do we have a place for Binary options? koolaid.gif

post #5 of 179
Quote:
Originally Posted by kylestt View Post

Hi, I'm Kyle, do we have a place for Binary options? koolaid.gif

 

Start a fresh thread.

post #6 of 179
Quote:
Originally Posted by charulz View Post

dollarsentiment.png

 

public seems extremely bullish on the dollar. notice how when we hit these extreme levels, the dollar has had significant corrections

 

EUR/USD shorts seeing the herd mentality we saw in the winter when fundamentals and macro news took a back seat.  Many large funds went into FY12 long USD/long equities as the correlation withered a bit.  We're back to NYSE short interest not seen since last fall (need I remind anyone what we did post capitulation off the 10/4 lows?)

 

From ZH:

 

zh-short.jpg

post #7 of 179

Hey guys... Thanks for the invite charulz :-)

post #8 of 179

JVjx7.png

 

So far its holding support at last Friday's low, and bouncing. Not a very convincing bounce, and to me looks like a possible bear flag. If it does play out then I'm looking for a bounce off where where the low of the left shoulder intersects the bottom of my up trending support right around 1287 (practically that 1290 level mentioned several time in the Today threads). I have some aapl puts from close to AAPL's high of the day, so I would like tot take profit on those tomorrow right around the mid to upper 560s. 

 

I feel like this approval only group is going to be very interested. To be honest, I feel some of the members these days have just taken away some of the learning experience vibe . Rather than share with others what they see, and elaborate a possible scenario based on a reasonable claim some of the posts are excessively irrational. 

post #9 of 179
Thread Starter 

got a bit of resistance at 1309.5 premarket... check out gold and silver.. ripping..

the /dx has about 20 cents of downside to fill the gap from yesterday, so im leaning bullish today.. tho to be honest the market seems to have disconnected from the dollar at the moment

post #10 of 179

thanks for the invite

post #11 of 179
Thread Starter 

opened  550/545 goog june put spread @ .50

 

edit:

goog.PNG

post #12 of 179
Thread Starter 

out @ 1.10. GOOG filled that gap from 10/13 around 558.50, which was my target. close enough for me to exit

Quote:
Originally Posted by charulz View Post

opened  550/545 goog june put spread @ .50

post #13 of 179
Thread Starter 

i have this indicator.. i dont want to divulge into it, as it may not be as effective. But so far the indicator has worked like a charm.. it just gave me green light to go long ES @ 1310.. but i can't get myself to pull the trigger

post #14 of 179

Nice trading Charulz!

post #15 of 179
Quote:
Originally Posted by charulz View Post

out @ 1.10. GOOG filled that gap from 10/13 around 558.50, which was my target. close enough for me to exit

 

Thanks for the invite charulz!

 

And nice play on GOOG. Was in those 550x puts myself.

post #16 of 179
Quote:
Originally Posted by charulz View Post

i have this indicator.. i dont want to divulge into it, as it may not be as effective. But so far the indicator has worked like a charm.. it just gave me green light to go long ES @ 1310.. but i can't get myself to pull the trigger

You could possibly have made money on that trade but I like your decision. Right now price is battling with the first hour high (1308.75). Holding that along with the day's range 38.2% retracement (1308.25) for the next 30 minutes or so should lead to fresh highs today. The 1.27 extension of today's range is 1318. The intraday pattern of Jan-Feb looks similar to today, early dip is bought, then when we pull off highs price holds at favorable (bullish) level, then buying interest renews and we leg up again. We could break down, but I like the long side today and most likely through tomorrow or Thurs.

FWIW - I agree about dollar-equity inv correlation being weak. Seems like stocks do what they want, unless dollar move is very strong. If dollar move is weak, then it tends to add a little fuel to the equity move taking place, usually with the normal inv correlation. Not really sure I am right but that is how it has felt of late.
post #17 of 179

JogKU.png

 

A little bit of strength off Friday's low. Market didn't do exactly what I hoped for, although i noticed us forming and break an intraday ascending triangle. Maybe we re-test mid-1330s or so?

post #18 of 179

Wider volatility due to wider stops.

Money wants swing traders to have a difficult time positioning long on this possible swing low.

I'm betting we see a move up to pronounce this head and shoulder pattern.

If we play this out, the next move would be to 1330 to form the right shoulder.

Then we move down to break the neckline at 1300 to trap in bears.

fwerdf.jpg

 

We trap bears and we meet up with that 1290 right shoulder on the much larger inverted h&s pointed out many times.

woooooooooooord.jpg

Then  opex week is over and we jack up high FAST to new highs. 

We stall out and come back down after that, continuing the rising wedge pattern I mentioned a bit back.

wo.jpg

 

Just a big ass elaborate theory of mine.

post #19 of 179

thnx for the invite charulz, and thnx for starting up this group. i think this is a really great idea. we needed a section like this on hsm. looking forward to it. :)

post #20 of 179

I never know what the heck is going on but this should be good. Thanks, Charulz!