Quote:
Originally Posted by rando 
What about the EU problems that aren't already known do you think will take us lower? Last summer our mess happened with the debt limit debate and downgrade coming to a head. Would a repeat of that sort of event crush the markets? I don't think so, the market has seen that song and dance, and now everyone admits these credit ratings are basically a sham. A full-on Grexit in chaotic style in the next few months would certainly hurt... but ask yourself what potential events would really take us that much lower? It's probably worth looking at some of the European index charts as part of this exercise, to see how far you think they would go down if things went from ugly to fugly. Part of this is a question of how much that isn't priced in is still out there. For now, it's beginning to feel to me as if the market has priced in all of the predictable stuff, downgrades can hurt intraday but have they really stung that much lately? So perhaps the market is shifting into the mode where it ignores garden variety bad news as we wait for the next big events to unfold.
As for charts, the SPY H&S that some were saying could take ES to 1275 or so looks a bit long in the tooth. And while the ES inverted H&S doesn't trigger until around 1345 (due to Sunday night 1342 high) the SPY inverted H&S neckline triggers tomorrow around 134.40s, which is easily within reach if we have a good day. I don't think it will happen, just saying it's now a level I'm watching actively on the charts, since it's close.
Does anyone else feel like the charts and the market action are hinting that this choppy indecision is very close to resolution?
What about the EU problems that aren't already known do you think will take us lower? Last summer our mess happened with the debt limit debate and downgrade coming to a head. Would a repeat of that sort of event crush the markets? I don't think so, the market has seen that song and dance, and now everyone admits these credit ratings are basically a sham. A full-on Grexit in chaotic style in the next few months would certainly hurt... but ask yourself what potential events would really take us that much lower? It's probably worth looking at some of the European index charts as part of this exercise, to see how far you think they would go down if things went from ugly to fugly. Part of this is a question of how much that isn't priced in is still out there. For now, it's beginning to feel to me as if the market has priced in all of the predictable stuff, downgrades can hurt intraday but have they really stung that much lately? So perhaps the market is shifting into the mode where it ignores garden variety bad news as we wait for the next big events to unfold.
As for charts, the SPY H&S that some were saying could take ES to 1275 or so looks a bit long in the tooth. And while the ES inverted H&S doesn't trigger until around 1345 (due to Sunday night 1342 high) the SPY inverted H&S neckline triggers tomorrow around 134.40s, which is easily within reach if we have a good day. I don't think it will happen, just saying it's now a level I'm watching actively on the charts, since it's close.
Does anyone else feel like the charts and the market action are hinting that this choppy indecision is very close to resolution?
No I do not think it is close to a resolution. A sideways chop or consolidation will continue IMO we have a trading range of 1295 - 1340..The bollinger bands need to come in a bit more then we will see a move.I do not proclaim to know which way it will go but i do follow the bonds and the dollar and neither one is giving it up in a big way i even commented about the TLT today refusing to back down..I am in the camp that smart money is in the bonds and until that is no longer the case i think we will go lower,it may not happen next tomorrow or next week but it's coming..
