Stock Market Today : June 11th - 15th

I wonder how long WWDC can support the markets before reality sets in..

The market is not doing anything wrong here but I'm keeping open mind for both sides here the bear & bullish case as we're sort of in no mans land here.  I'm just going to let the market prove to me at this point which way it wants to go as you can get hurt in either direction right now.   To me, right now the odds are no longer in my favor of either position past day trading(no more overnight holds).  Some piece of news over the weekend or overnight can send us in either direction so I don't want to risk capital.  If I see us break past $135 and there's energy to the move I'll open some long positions.  If $135 comes and it fails and comes back down and I see the volume showing me that conviction I'll open short positions.  


Bullish case:

As long as it doesn't give up $130.34 on the $SPY the right shoulder won't be broken.  Again though, volume was very light and on fridays we have Expiration of Weekly options so the big boys play lot of games pinning things to certain numbers.  If the market spends some time digesting this move and builds a base next week I think higher prices could be in the cards.  Building a base here would be very healthy.  I would want to see $TLT(30 year bonds) selling and EURUSD being bid up back to the 1.30's area showing risk is back on.

Bearish case:

The thing about corrective rallies or even bear market rallies they can be very vicious and fast.  One event can trigger a rash of short covering and you can have these very powerful/quick moves up.  To me the real test to see if this rally is for real is that it has to break up past $135 and hold.  If resistance comes into play again and the short sellers are no longer scared I think it'll create the next move down. 
I would want to see $TLT going higher and EURUSD going lower showing people playing it safe.



Possible Catalysts:

(BULLISH)
Spain accepts terms of bailout and agrees to austerity
Germany relents on austerity pressure and decides to further easing/growth is the path to go
Greek elections result in party favoring austerity allow them to receive bailouts from Germany
U.S. does another bond buying program like Operation Twist last summer or even QE3 (hard to do at these low interest rates though)

(BEARISH)
Spain/Greece contaign worsens and banks need to recapitalize  
U.S Debt Ceiling brings in downgrades like last summer
Dollar continues to strength and breaks resistance at $83 sending long term 30 year bonds higher 
Greek party that wins does not accept bailout and breaks away from EU and starts using Drachmas
U.S decides easing is not going to help and congress must fix it's own issues (Bernake hinted at this yesterday in his testimony on the hill) - i.e: no QE3

 

 

 

 

 

And also can't stress how important it is if people want the market to go higher AAPL has to start ripping higher and show volume behind it.  It broke out of that range on friday AH but the volume is decreasing here so I think it needs time to prove itself above $580 maybe it has a run to $600 I still have my doubts here in this market seems like we're setting ourselves up for a nice little light volume rise before we hit resistances and rugs get pulled.

 

Edited by barbellman - 6/9/12 at 8:54am

 

I am going to make a couple of comments. First one is to get rid of the Bearish/Bullish attitude. We are never in no man's land and you simply follow the trend. That sounds simple but it's not and it takes quite awhile to start figuring it out. Start checking into it and you'll see what I mean.

 

Second comment is that no matter what anyone's experience level is you can either review or learn from the stuff Stone is posting. Maybe start here:

 

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/225991/investment-advice-for-newcomers

 

Don't let the word newcomer mislead you because it's all good reading.

 

Thanks for the comments and I'll check that out.  My opinion now: I don't think you read anything I wrote (or if you did just scanned it) as all I'm doing is presenting the case for either side of going long or short based on the levels in the $SPY combined with other factors such as the TLT and EURUSD.  I think you just zeroed in on the words Bearish and Bullish and didn't look at the content of what I wrote.  

 

Just my opinion..

 

I actually do read the posts. I zeroed in on your first sentence, "The market is not doing anything wrong here but I'm keeping open mind for both sides here the bear & bullish case as we're sort of in no mans land here."

 

Didn't mean to offend you and I'll butt out.

 Per Dougie Kass just tweeted....My early guess is that S&P futures open up between 10-15 handles tomorrow night. Stay tuned!

Well sorry bears. Looks like Spain got approved for up to$125 billion.

 

Just what they want you to think. Kaboom.

 

 

No doubt..i do think the next leg down will be intense..

 

 

Totally agree..I can see 1357 or maybe higher before the big dump...Remember  a few weeks ago we had that fake print of 135.74 and i said that it was a signal of where the MM's wanted to take this market before the next leg down...Call me crazy but we aew headed there IMO....Ok so i wear tin foil hats it dosen't make me crazy....This is the B to a C of an AB=CD down....and C to D folks is nasty..

 

 

I see the resistance at 1357 also but I think the sheer momentum will carry us past that level and head up to the previous high.  The news from Europe this week should give the markets quite a boost, in my opinion.  If the Euro Zone is still able and willing to help bail out countries like Spain then I think we're going to maintain the current up-tick in the markets.  The dump we are expecting, I think, will certainly be European news driven.  Also, our own economic data may not as bad as what some are predicting and we could very well see higher highs yet again.  I'm currently long but have always been a bear at heart.  It is an election year after all......

 

*I recognize that none of what I write makes a lick of sense so feel free to bash away....LOL

The guys who paid attention to the 200ma ( line in the sand ) went long and cleaned up lasy week.

 

Now the questions is: how high can they bounce it off that line? Right now, we're bouncing between the 20 & 30 ma's on the daily ( last two days ). It's anyones game at this point.

Spain was always going to get bailed out (Sorry financial assistance) no way would the powers that be not step in for the sake of a paltry 125 billion. Can booted down the road...

 

If your going long or are still long be mindfull that next sunday is make or break for Greece (17th of June) so have a decent hedge if holding over the weekend.  This has the markets guessing as no opinion polls allowed .. just as well as we would have been drip fed latest poll swings causing mayhem probably.

 

Should the left wing get in on a coalition be mindful that many are acedemics with little or no actual government experience. An example of this would be the shadow financial minister who is a professor of economics teaching at Athens? university. A recent interview I saw portrayed a cool head and a man that was unhappy with the austerity measures imposed but unwilling to leave the Euro and unwilling to default. Renegotiation of terms .....

 

In short expect more dithering and long winded meetings should the left come to power not a swift exit on the 18th..... and of course the last poll when taken showed it was going to be close.. ..

um no.. You follow the trend if your system tells you to follow a specific trend.. There is never one answer to a given market... lol..

rt on

you referring to the program?  on the tele?

there was numerous ways to make money in the uptrend that ended last fall...and inturn have been numerous ways to make money in the 6-8 month downtrend we are in now