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S&P 500

post #1 of 7
6/2/12 at 5:06am
Thread Starter 

I have a question about the s&p 500.

 

How do most of you know when the s&p 500 is going to make a sustainable trend up or down?

 

I'm searching for a kind of method or analysis that ignores short term up (in a downtrend) and short term down (in an uptrend) trends in the s&p 500.

So when the s&p 500 is going down and we have a few up days and after that it goes back down, it was a kind of false signal, how do I avoid such false signals?

 

All insights are welcome

 

TIA

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post #2 of 7
6/2/12 at 4:22pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by stockss View Post

I have a question about the s&p 500.

 

How do most of you know when the s&p 500 is going to make a sustainable trend up or down?

 

I'm searching for a kind of method or analysis that ignores short term up (in a downtrend) and short term down (in an uptrend) trends in the s&p 500.

So when the s&p 500 is going down and we have a few up days and after that it goes back down, it was a kind of false signal, how do I avoid such false signals?

 

All insights are welcome

 

TIA

 

Use longer term moving averages or look at a weekly/monthly chart instead of a daily chart.

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post #3 of 7
6/2/12 at 4:41pm
Study the four phases of stocks: accumulation, markup, distribution and markdown.
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post #4 of 7
6/2/12 at 5:06pm

^what they said and also...

 

trendlines on longer time frames

Capture.PNG

 

remember that nothing is exact and trading is war; trading is deception.

Price doesn't always bounce where it 'should'. It sometimes

tests below the trendline to deceive retail before being absorbed and then bouncing. 

I pay attention to the close more so than the current action. 

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post #5 of 7
6/6/12 at 11:12am

The test below the trendline happened as expected (12 handle test 75 down to 62)

Now we are up 30 handles on the week with that weekly trendline bounce

Capture.PNG

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post #6 of 7
6/6/12 at 10:07pm

44 handles off that trendline now...reversion back to 1320

Capture.PNG

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post #7 of 7
6/16/12 at 10:35am
Quote:
Originally Posted by stockss View Post

I have a question about the s&p 500.

 

How do most of you know when the s&p 500 is going to make a sustainable trend up or down?

 

I'm searching for a kind of method or analysis that ignores short term up (in a downtrend) and short term down (in an uptrend) trends in the s&p 500.

So when the s&p 500 is going down and we have a few up days and after that it goes back down, it was a kind of false signal, how do I avoid such false signals?

 

All insights are welcome

 

TIA

 

If your intermediate term trend indicator is headed down with strong momentum, then a turn in your short-term trend indicator may simply be a reflection of a short-lived cycle high.

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