Stock Market Today : June 4th - 8th - Page 2

Looks like a downer of a week coming up to me!

http://www.gis.net/~mmoon/Forecasts/SP_INDEX_ANALYSIS_060412.html

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Crunch-Time for Espania : (it's 6000 Level) :

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And Crunch-Time for Germany : (thier 6000 Level)

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The 30yr Bond : Will ya' look where it's at.....

IMO gld is just perceived value.. who gives a F what it can do. no investor collects gld so they can conduct some electricity.. they collect it so they can sell it at a higher price later when demand > supply. same thing as art.

 

Yeah, not sure if I would compare it to art, but the only actual collectors are people who use it for Jewelry. But the price fluctuations are not determined by those people, it simply has a market.

 

I believe the only commodity worth holding long term is Oil because of the fact that it runs this world and it's non renewable. Weekly fluctuations may occur with slowing demand, but in the end that Oil will be used and it's not coming back. As our population grows so will demand. Anyone who thinks Gold is a good buy right now should be putting there money in Oil instead.

 

 

What about all the people who collect gold in bullion, numismatic coins, bars, etc.?

It's a wealth reserve.  A place to store your wealth over time outside of the casino. Billions of Asians don't simply buy jewelry for a fashion statement.
 

If there was a financial collapse, which would you rather have?
Gold or cash?
People will always want a shiny metal.

those are typically investments. my brother collects coins as well as paper money too, half of which he has sold back as the value increased.

Those are ways of investing in gold outside of etf's. Some may be true collectors but I'd bet the majority are just investors.

Good conversation on gold I've been enjoying it all weekend and thought I'd give my two cents.

 

I had been in the camp that gold would continue the downtrend to 1200 due to the strong dollar and deflationary pressure.  However, price failure to take out the 1525 swing low combined with Friday's unbelievable broad based rally in the gold miners has me believing the bottom is in for gold.  On the GLD chart we can see the absorption in the 150 area, then the massive gap up on breakout volume with price finishing in the upper end of Friday's range.  To me, that looks like a breakaway gap and the beginning of a momo move to the upside:

 

The gold miners sport a similar chart with price testing uptrending support levels before breaking out on high volume:

 

 

Breadth within the gold mining sector was strong Friday while the rest of the market had very negative breadth all day.  Of the 49 gold mining stocks listed on Finviz, 47 were green on Friday and 40 of those experienced higher than average volume.  

A blog I've been reading called  http://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/ suggests that gold has made its yearly low and is entering a new cycle on the daily, intermediate, and yearly basis.  He makes a solid case and I think with the massive risk in the financial system at the moment, buying gold just makes sense.  
 

 

You mean like the financial collapse in 2008? Cash......

 

 

Gold fell about 30% in that crash while the USD gained.

 

Is there anything on Earth that isn't "perceived value" based on "supply and demand"? Silver, copper, oil, natural gas, apple computers, real estate, babies, pearls, crocs, Facebook, unicorns, etc... Can a same piece of paper be worth $1 or $100? How much are Iraqi Dinar's worth now vs Iraqi gold? At least gold has some desirable physical properties and is a limited resource; paper money is as bountiful and useful as toilet paper in the upcoming zombie apocalypse.

 

Looks like gold recovered nicely though:

 

I must admit, that huge pop on Friday took me by surprise.

 

I think it's still too early to tell on the direction, but based on the weekly/monthly chart June will be huge for Gold.

 

It did break the 4 year up trend it was in on the weekly. This could simply be a test of that wedge it broke again before another leg down, or it could be setting up for new highs.

 

IMO if GLD can get back to $164 in the next couple of weeks and hold that level then it'll be very bullish. But if it fails, then next stop I'm looking for is in the mid 130's.

 

 

Yes that's because of the huge bull market rally after '08. And again... easing. But like I said the government will not keep doing that forever. The markets doubled in value, just like gold did.

 

edit: And it's clear that gold has a direct correlation to the markets. So if you are bullish gold then that means you must be bullish in the markets. So why even invest in gold? Why not invest in cheaper stocks and have a much larger ROI. Or why not oil? Oil/Gold will move together also. And I don't think any arguments can be made that gold is more valuable than oil.

 

But those desirable properties are very limited and it is not useful to 99% of people. I feel like investing in gold is like playing musical chairs or hot potato. I would never hold it long term as its value is hyper inflated. It should be worth probably 2 to 10x the price of copper or aluminum. People can pay whatever they want though. I will sell you shredded up pieces of cardboard for $100 a piece if you'll buy it, but I certainly won't be holding them hoping they'll be worth something in an apocalypse.

 

In the event of a world economic collapse, I would rather hold means to farm, hunt, fish, and defend myself. Weapons, seeds, gear, long-term emergency food, etc. are much safer bets if you are in the foil-hat wearing bunch.

 

lmao gold in the upcoming zombie apocalypse is just as worthless. Actually no, I shouldn't say that...you can probably crush a zombies head with a bar of gold if you hit them hard enough.

 

but that's about it 

Awesome point, this is very important. There were I believe three attempts at that 1526.70 low, each time with good amount of stop runs, volatility, volume, and each time the move fizzled out just in time. I definitely think a few 1580+ closes is confirmation bulls can use to resume their bullish leanings in gold. Also, that is such an old rising trendline... it makes a lot of sense to see gold support flatten out when we start discussing timeframes measured in a decade or more - it would be more healthy for bulls.

I don't disagree with your premise. But think about the logistics. You can bury a bread box sized stash of gold in your back yard, or deep six it in a basement full of cardboard boxes. Extrapolate the dollar value of that gold to a reserve of oil, and you're going to need an underground football field sized area to store it. IMO oil is simply an impractical investment, and lots of gold owners are longer term investors who need somewhere to stash it. Oil is fairly infeasible for most to hold in inventory. Of course I've regretted not trying to get my hands on some Dec '15 oil futures contracts, as they were in the mid $70s in early 2010, but that's a different ball of wax.