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post #21 of 74
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Federal%20Reserve-470x607.jpg

post #22 of 74
Thread Starter 

Are We Going Over a Cliff?

By John C. Goodman

5/26/2012

 

Did you know the economy is going to fall back into another recession in the first half of next year? That’s the sad news coming from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in a report released this week.

If current law remains unchanged, on January 1, 2013 American taxpayers will be hit with a whopping tax increase (mainly the expiration of the Bush tax cuts) and a major decrease in government spending (the result of last year’s budget deal) as well.

 

All told, we’re looking at a $500 billion double whammy. But aren’t economists recommending the opposite medicine? Won’t higher taxes and reduced spending dampen economic activity and slow down the current recovery? Exactly. You can think of the January 1st fiscal tsunami as a New Year’s Day "anti-stimulus" package. The CBO is predicting that the price we will pay for that package is a "double dip" recession.

 

But here is something even more disturbing. It turns out that uncertainty – not knowing what Washington is going to do about all this is worse than the reality. Will President Obama and the Congress agree to put off the tax increases? Will they agree to delay the spending cuts? Not knowing the answers to those questions appears to have more impact on the decisions of businesses and consumers than if everyone simply agreed to go ahead and let the bad things happen.

 

Historically, "uncertainty" has been a slippery concept in the vocabulary of economists. Everyone kind of knows what it means. But a precise definition has been impossible. Until now.

Economists at Stanford University and the University of Chicago have actually created an uncertainty index and they have tracked it over time for several decades.

 

Here’s what they found. Their measure of uncertainty soared during the Obama years, where it has been at its highest levels over the past 30 years. It’s not just uncertainty about what will happen next January that’s a problem. In many ways, the entire Obama presidency is the problem. Public policy uncertainty alone is the apparent cause of a peak decline of 2.2% in real GDP, a 13% decline in private investment and the loss of 2.5 million jobs over the past five years.

 

Put yourself in the position of a small business owner who is considering hiring additional employees. And remember: hiring full-time employees is not a short-term decision. You’ll probably lose money on them for the first 6 to 8 months (while they are in training) and hope to make it back over the following 2 to 3 years.

 

So peer down the economic landscape for the next few years and what do you see? For starters, you have no idea what your labor costs are going to be. You know that Obama Care will force you to buy expensive health insurance for you employees. But you have no idea what will be required or how expensive it will be. And because the Democrats in Congress were so sloppy in drafting the legislation, the entire health reform bill may be declared unconstitutional.

You have no idea what you non-labor costs of production will be because of another Obama legacy – regulatory agencies pushing the envelope to exceed the authority previous regulators thought they had. Environmental regulations deserve a special uncertainty category of their own. (We still don’t know if the Keystone pipeline will ever be approved.)

 

If you need a loan to help finance new equipment to provide to your newly hired workers, you have no idea if, or when, you will ever get it because Dodd/Frank financial regulations are putting a damper on business loans almost everywhere. And since those regulations are not even finalized, expect mattes to get worse, not better.

As for your cost of capital, do you know what the tax rate on dividends or interest income or corporate profits will be next year? No? Well, no one else knows either.

 

As for your personal tax rate, there is a lot to worry about there too. Democratic politicians almost never make a speech about the economy these days without mentioning the need for higher taxes. And the likely targets of this quest for more government revenue? Job creators, of course.

More than one commentator has noticed that our current "recovery" has been one of the slowest on record. Going back 60 years, we have had 11 recessions. The one we are in is at the bottom in terms of the speed at which we are getting back to normalcy.

Barack Obama doesn’t deserve all the blame for public policy uncertainty, of course. He has to deal with recalcitrant Republicans and unreliable Democratic allies in Congress. Still, I would give the president an "F" on his stewardship of the economy.

John C. Goodman

John C. Goodman is president and founder of the National Center for Policy Analysis, research fellow at The Independent Institute, and author of the forthcoming book Priceless: Curing the Healthcare Crisis.
post #23 of 74
Thread Starter 

Detroit Goes Dark: Half of Detroit's Street Lights May Go Out To Save Money; Left to the Rats

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


Posted: 25 May 2012 08:36 AM PDT

 

Cash strapped Detroit has lost 60 percent of its population since 1950. What's left is a sprawling mass of vacant, worthless homes stripped of copper and anything else worthwhile.


Does it make sense to have streetlight in these areas? What about paving cracked sidewalks? What about other services? Is anything salvageable?


To save money, huge sections of the city will be left to the rats. Then again, 40% of Detroit's streetlights do not work already. By that measure, the city has long ago been left to the rats.


Bloomberg reports Half of Detroit’s Streetlights May Go Out as City Shrinks.
Detroit, whose 139 square miles contain 60 percent fewer residents than in 1950, will try to nudge them into a smaller living space by eliminating almost half its streetlights.


As it is, 40 percent of the 88,000 streetlights are broken and the city, whose finances are to be overseen by an appointed board, can’t afford to fix them. Mayor Dave Bing’s plan would create an authority to borrow $160 million to upgrade and reduce the number of streetlights to 46,000. Maintenance would be contracted out, saving the city $10 million a year.


“You have to identify those neighborhoods where you want to concentrate your population,” said Chris Brown, Detroit’s chief operating officer. “We’re not going to light distressed areas like we light other areas.”


Delivering services to a thinly spread population is expensive. Some 20 neighborhoods, each a square mile or more, are only 10 to 15 percent occupied, said John Mogk, a law professor at Wayne State University who specializes in urban law and policy. He said the city can’t force residents to move, and it’s almost impossible under Michigan law for the city to seize properties for development.


As Detroit’s streets go dark, some of those neighborhoods may fade away with the dying light.
360 Degree Photo Tour


Please take a look at this amazing 360 degree photo tour of several spots in or around Detroit, including the abandoned Michigan Central Train station.

 

http://photo.photojpl.com/tour/michigan-central-station/michigan-central-waiting.html


Reader "Rick" who sent the link suggested "It looks like a scene from the movie Escape from New York"


Give the images time to load. They first load in black-and-white, then color. You can use the mouse to pan around but it is easiest to use the left and right arrows on the image.


 

At the core of Detroit's problems is public unions, private unions, a manufacturing exodus, graft, and political pandering to unions. If you get the idea unions and politicians are a big part of Detroit's problems, then you certainly get the idea.

post #24 of 74
Thread Starter 

Marc Faber - Looming Global Catastrophe 

May 26, 2012

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdbsaoyeJOo&feature=g-all-u

post #25 of 74
Thread Starter 

Afghanistan – We Forgot History and We Repeated It

by Eric Margolis

 

May 25, 2012

Santayana’s famous dictum about those who forget history being condemned to relieve it is nowhere better observed than in the mountains of Afghanistan.

One of my favorite artists was the superb Victorian painter Lady Jane Butler who captured in oil the military triumphs and tragedies of the British Empire.

Her haunting painting, "The Retreat from Kabul, (also known as "Remnants of an Army,") shows the sole survivor of a British army of 16,500 during the first Anglo-Afghan War in 1842, Dr. William Brydon, struggling out of Afghanistan. All the rest of the British occupation force were killed by Afghan tribesmen after a futile attempt to garrison Kabul.

Remnants_of_an_army2-th.jpg

This gripping painting should have hung over the NATO summit meeting last week in Chicago to remind the US and its allies that Afghanistan remains "the graveyard of empires."

The western forces that occupied Afghanistan in 2001 have failed to achieve their military or political objectives and are now sounding the retreat.

All the empty oratory in Chicago about "transition," Afghan self-reliance, and growing security could not conceal the truth that the mighty US and its dragooned western allies have been bested in Afghanistan by a bunch of mountain warriors from the 12th Century.

The objective of war is to achieve political goals, not kill people. The US goal was to turn Afghanistan into a protectorate providing bases close to Caspian Basin oil, and to block China on a strategy level. After an eleven-year war costing $1 trillion, this effort failed as dismally as the much ballyhooed "liberation" of Iraq.

 

 

The US dragged its NATO allies into a war in which they had no business and lacked any popular support. The result has been a serious weakening of the NATO alliance, raising questions about whose interests it really serves. The defeat in Afghanistan will undermine US geopolitical influence over Western Europe.

Claims made in Chicago that the US-installed Afghan regime will stand on its own with $4 billion of aid from the west were pie in the sky. Once US support ends, the Karzai regime is unlikely to survive much longer than did Najibullah’s Afghan Communist regime in Kabul after its Soviet sponsor withdrew in 1989. Or the US-run South Vietnamese regime that fell in 1975.

 

The current 350,000-man Afghan government army and police are mercenaries fighting for money supplied by the US and NATO. Many are ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks, blood foes of the majority Pashtun. Taliban and its allies are fighting for nationalism and faith. History tells us who will prevail.

All Afghans know the western powers have been defeated. Those with sense are already making deals with Taliban. Vengeance being a cherished Afghan custom, those who collaborated closely with the foreign forces can expect little mercy.

Air power is the key to US control of Afghanistan. Warplanes and helicopter gunships circle constantly overhead to defend western bases and supply routes. Reduce this hugely expensive deployment of air power, as will likely happen after 2014, and remaining US troops will be in peril. Pakistan’s temporary closure of NATO land supply routes to Kabul and Kandahar provides a foretoken of what may occur. Currently, the US must rely on Russia for much of its heavy supplies.

 

Already there are worries about getting most US and NATO troops out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014. The US pullout from Iraq was deftly executed. But Afghanistan will be a greater challenge. Much will depend on the good or ill will of the angry mountain tribesmen who comprise Taliban and its nationalist allies.

France’s new president, Francoise Hollande, wisely reaffirmed his pledge to withdraw all French troops this year. French had become fed up with former President Nicholas Sarkozy’s neoconservative ambitions and eagerness to please Washington. Other NATO members are wishing they could do the same.

No one wants to have their soldiers be the last to die in a futile war that everyone knows is lost.

To wage and sustain the Afghan War, the US has been forced to virtually occupy Pakistan, bribe its high officials, and force Islamabad to follow policies hated by 95% of its people, generating virulent anti-Americanism. The Afghan War must be ended before it tears apart Pakistan and plunges South Asia into crisis into which nuclear-armed India and Pakistan confront one another.

 

margolis.jpgWashington intends to leave garrisons in Afghanistan after the 2014 announced pullout date, rebranding them "trainers" instead of combat troops. Their mission will be to keep the pro-US Afghan regime in power. But neither the US nor NATO will come up with the $4 billion promised in Chicago.

Washington is encouraging India to get ever more deeply involved in Afghanistan – even to become its new colonial power. India, with 600,000 troops stuck in divided Kashmir battling a Muslim uprising, would be wise to keep its hands off.

The retreat from Kabul will not be easy, but hopefully not as fraught and bloodly as that of the British in their Afghan wars.

It’s high time for the great powers to let poor, ravage Afghanistan sink back into well-deserved obscurity.

 

Eric Margolis  is the author of War at the Top of the World and the new book, American Raj: Liberation or Domination?: Resolving the Conflict Between the West and the Muslim World.

post #26 of 74

Hello Stone..

 

..this is nice : ))

 

Checking in  smile.gif

 

~Sis~

 

YaY...an edit button!!

post #27 of 74
Thread Starter 

Oh yeah....this is like getting a Jaguar after have driven around in a Yugo for years!

post #28 of 74
Thread Starter 

"Run!"

 
Tyler Durden's picture




From Mark Grant, author of Out Of The Box

Who is Minding the Store?

 

Recently I sat and mused with the Chairman of the Board of one of the major international banks. One of the subjects under discussion was the oversight of risk by the Board. This included investment risk, counterparty risk and the general exposure of the bank to what various parts of management were engaged in with their businesses. He assured me that they had multiple reports that were filtered up to the Board and I asked the question about who was designing the reports and were they accurate not in terms of information but in terms of their structure. Banks, insurance companies and other managers of money typically have respected members of the business community on their Board but often lack investment professionals to help provide some guidance and oversight for their dealer operations and for their trust operations so that the oversight by the Board is, frankly, insufficient. The complexities of any large dealer operation, in particular, are far past what the CEO of some main street corporation on the Board has any real knowledge of and the consequences of not having the appropriate people providing guidance can be catastrophic.

 

This schematic was clearly demonstrated recently at J.P. Morgan. The Directors of the Risk Committee had virtually no Wall Street experience and, consequently, had no real knowledge of the exposure of the bank except the data that they were given but then I doubt if they knew how to make any real sense of the numbers in front of them and certainly they did not have enough experience to judge if those figures were all that they needed to make informed decisions. Now JPM is facing investigations by half a dozen Federal Agencies including the Department of Justice and this was caused, in my opinion, by not having the appropriate people in oversight positions on the Board. Smart people always learn from their mistakes but really smart people learn from the mistakes of others. Therefore I suggest to those of you in senior positions to stop and evaluate who is on your Board, who is on the Risk Committee and who is minding the store because it is the Board, in the final analysis, that is ultimately responsible for the business of your institution and while you may have great faith in your management it is the Board, not those in executive positions, that are held accountable for the risks your firm has undertaken.

 

When the Defendants are also the Judge and Jury

 
 

“All within the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state. “

-Benito Mussolini

 

Here is a prescription for disaster. Here is an opiate that, once seen, should be avoided at any and all costs because the hand is a losing one far past any combination of cards on the Blackjack table. Yet, this is exactly what Europe is proscribing for owners of unsecured bank debt on the Continent. The importance of Friday’s announcement was not that unsecured bank debt owners were to take losses if some bank foundered but just who would be deciding what losses were to be taken. Yes, it is true, investors for the last three years had been assured and re-assured that the sovereign nation where the bank was domiciled would be back-stopping any bank bonds or that the European Union itself would ring fence all bond holders so that the announcement was in direct contention to what we had all been told to get us to support European bank debt. Europe had claimed responsibility and now they have withdrawn it and this reason alone is enough to push yields for European bank bonds far wider than where they are currently as the charade of one more contingent liability has been officially ended. I assert, just for this reversal in position, that the yields of all unsecured bank bonds on the Continent will gap out from their current levels as what we were told is not what we are to get any longer. The new EU bank plan normalizes the losses to put them on the same plain with the American banks but the second part of the story is where disaster lies and I mean unmitigated disaster.

 

In America we have a formalized process for insolvency, bankruptcy that is overseen by the Rule of Law and the decisions are made by our courts. We have a functioning judicial system and all manner of statutes and regulations so that claims on assets are a matter of well-established Laws that govern this process. This also used to be the way of it in Europe but now we are being told that the legal system on the Continent is going to be irrelevant which will include, by the way, all of the nations in Europe including Great Britain. What the European Union has tossed on our plate is some sort of gruel that no one should eat for it is full of deadly poison; of that I have absolutely no doubt. The new EU bank plan states clearly and without remorse that the decisions for any bank insolvency will be made by Regulators. This would be people appointed by European politicians, this would be bureaucrats, this would be employees of the State as Europe returns to the governance of the old Soviet Union where the Rule of Law was subordinated to the designs of the nation. Let me make this clearer; unsecured bank debt owners will have no rights, no due process and no appeal.

 

The State will decide who is to get what, how much they will get and your rights as a bond holder will be about equivalent to Russia under Stalin where the legal system operated under the thumb of the man in charge. Further the regulators can, once again, exempt the EU, the ECB, the EIB, the IMF or whomever they like from any call on assets so that the bond owner can be subordinated to whomever the Regulators so desire. Then if they will impose this system of State dominance on unsecured bond holders today who is to say that they will not impose it on other classes of assets tomorrow. When the Rule of Law is replaced by the Rule of the State then I will proclaim, unconditionally and without qualification, that the system has been rigged for the benefit of the nations and to the detriment of any private citizens. Therefore there is only one rational conclusion that can be reached which is that no one should own any European unsecured bank debt, NONE, of any bank on the Continent as the Regulators in Europe can now decide the fate of the bondholders for any political reason that they deem relevant and expedient.

 

If you cannot read the writing on the wall then allow me to read it for you. The European Union has abrogated the Rule of Law for the good of the State. This is the second such abrogation with the first being the exemption of certain European institutions and the IMF from the Private Sector Involvement of Greece. Greece may be a one-off exemption as they claim but we now have a second instance where jurisprudence has been overturned for the good of the nations of Europe. This is not Socialism or Capitalism but rather some sort of Fascist governance which I publically decry as the echo of the jackboots sounds across the Continent once again. The precedents have now been set and the future is clearly marked by a return to the totalitarianism of a politically controlled State. My advice is therefore succinct:

 

RUN!

post #29 of 74
Thread Starter 

Greek%20Ruins.jpg

post #30 of 74

A soldier died today.jpg

 

 

 

For those of us that served..... myself.... it's hard this time of year for various reasons.  We don't feel like we are heros, and are embarrased when recognized for our time served in service (but appreciate the gratitude)......We feel guilty that WE are here and THEY are NOT..... maybe we didn't even get IN the fight.....when others DID. ALL you CAN do is remember .....SAD to think that we could be headed to a conflict here in our OWN country IF our politician don't get their heads OUT from where the sun don't shine......

post #31 of 74

Mag-1.bmp

Remembering my little trip to the desert(I'm the last guy on the left)..... THIS TIME? I was actually IN the desert.......  Remembering all the guys that gave all..... 

post #32 of 74

WELL..... we KNOW thay aren't going to change ANYTHING.

 

TO RECAPITALIZE THEY NEED A FEW THINGS:

 

INSIDE INFORMATION

 

COLLUSION

 

With these two things?

 

THEY can put all their eggs in one basket with NO fear..........and play the long or short side of things.

 

RETRIEVING their losses like airing up a flat tire bicycle pump style....

 

ONE bank shorting...... the other LONG.....UP & DOWN (OVER AND OVER)

 

 

ONCE they've made money like this?

 

It's like getting a member of the Crips to get a REAL job making $10 an hour instead of selling drugs for $10K a week.........

post #33 of 74
Thread Starter 

Amen brother!

post #34 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by stoneranger View Post

Here's a chart for you gold stock fans!Gigantic%20Pennant-470x516.jpg


That's a wonderful chart. eek.gif

post #35 of 74
Thread Starter 

It certainly looks good for an upside breakout....eventually. The longer the pattern takes to complete..the stronger the breakout?

post #36 of 74

I can only speculate that this will shoot up because of Euro woes next week. Oh boy. I wonder if I should take my 9% loss on my AAPL shares and just reinvest the money into GLD... Or I might just take the OTM September calls and call it a day.

 

The more I look at that chart, the more certain I feel that the break-out will happen next week. I even drew up some charts on my own and I am finding the same scenario. There might be another day or two with red candles, but then that's that.


Edited by Venom08 - 5/26/12 at 3:42pm
post #37 of 74
Thread Starter 

Venom...I wouldn't be so sure about that. As the euro weakens, the dollar (as bad as it is) strengthens. Gold needs to really decouple from the fiat currencies and be seen as an 'alternate' currency. Also, you have all the central banks in the world terrified of a higher gold price. They may let it run a little ..maybe $1750? but they fight to the bitter end to keep the gold price contained. To me, gold is an insurance policy against financial chaos. I bought my first krugerrands for $314. You don't sell an insurance policy. I try to determine the short term bottoms in gold & silver and use AGQ (2x silver) and UGL (2x gold) etf's to catch the swing. Trade stocks and ETF's but keep the bullion/coins for the long haul.

post #38 of 74

MY PROBLEM WITH ALL THIS.... is that we are dealing with liars and cheats(anymore).

 

EVERYONE KNOWS how it SHOULD BE.

 

BUT IT ISN'T......

 

THE POWERS THAT BE are discrediting gold to drive people towards what they want them to buy.....

 

I'm surprised it has lasted THIS LONG.

post #39 of 74
Thread Starter 

six...that's just the way it is. You have to figure out how to deal with the corruption and make the best of it for yourself and your family. No use getting all het up about it..do what you have to do and don't spend so much time worrying about what you, as an individual...can't fix.

post #40 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneofsix View Post

MY PROBLEM WITH ALL THIS.... is that we are dealing with liars and cheats(anymore).

 

EVERYONE KNOWS how it SHOULD BE.

 

BUT IT ISN'T......

 

THE POWERS THAT BE are discrediting gold to drive people towards what they want them to buy.....

 

I'm surprised it has lasted THIS LONG.

 

Why would it change? It's just the same ol crap and no one does anything and probably doesn't care. At least in Vegas you can get a room free.

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