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DX - Dollar Futures

post #1 of 18
5/23/12 at 12:09pm
Thread Starter 

Dollar related material, ideas, and substance. 

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post #2 of 18
5/25/12 at 12:44pm
I'm no pro with DX but here is what I am glancing at on bigger time frames, which at this point become really important as the dollar is approaching multi-year dirty business.

Monthly chart pattern of lower highs can be taken out in a big way with: Monthly close over 88.905. Probability this happens in 2012? Maybe 10-15% max.

Important swing low that dollar bulls would like to see hold: Dec '04 80.48 Probability this holds through the summer on monthly closing basis? 35%

80% confidence interval range through labor day? 84.80-77.50

If the higher monthly high/close is to be posted, it seems to me a Grexit will have to occur (or as always some wicked Black Swan could show up), to give the extra fuel needed. Continued rumors of Greece leaving EZ will simply continue the impressive but eventually slackening drift up in DX.

What do you think James? >84.50 or <80.50 first? I'll go with the lower number.
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post #3 of 18
5/25/12 at 1:14pm
fut_chart.ashx?t=DX&cot=098662&p=d1
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post #4 of 18
5/25/12 at 1:46pm

Dollar bulls?

 

Here is my bullish scenario:

 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kc43ngCe/

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post #5 of 18
5/25/12 at 4:04pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

I'm no pro with DX but here is what I am glancing at on bigger time frames, which at this point become really important as the dollar is approaching multi-year dirty business.
Monthly chart pattern of lower highs can be taken out in a big way with: Monthly close over 88.905. Probability this happens in 2012? Maybe 10-15% max.
Important swing low that dollar bulls would like to see hold: Dec '04 80.48 Probability this holds through the summer on monthly closing basis? 35%
80% confidence interval range through labor day? 84.80-77.50
If the higher monthly high/close is to be posted, it seems to me a Grexit will have to occur (or as always some wicked Black Swan could show up), to give the extra fuel needed. Continued rumors of Greece leaving EZ will simply continue the impressive but eventually slackening drift up in DX.
What do you think James? >84.50 or <80.50 first? I'll go with the lower number.

I think that we will see 84.50 first 

 

The dollar is controlling more of this market than people realize at the moment I think. I am seeing too many placement correlations involving Eur/usd and subs- dx & 6e.. Just the two things I see pulling the wagon here.. Gold isn't really stable enough to be indicative of major things other than present potential generalizations, imo. Equities are just playing follow the leader, but they are not to be ignored.

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post #6 of 18
5/28/12 at 10:58pm
Check out my post from March 15th and BigBull's response. We were discussing issues that are coming closer to a head, and invoking some of the same key levels.

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/66907/dow-6800-s-p-720-nasdaq-1310/1740#post_2864704
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post #7 of 18
5/29/12 at 1:33am

lol i should pull up my posts stating that Greece would leave by 2Q .. and lookie it might come to fruition..

If it doesnt then next year.

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post #8 of 18
7/7/12 at 2:39pm
Thread Starter 

Do you guys think we see 84 this week? Or is 80.5 going to come first. Any thoughts related to dollar substance for this coming week?

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post #9 of 18
7/7/12 at 3:04pm

daily chart looks technically bullish..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamesw View Post

Do you guys think we see 84 this week? Or is 80.5 going to come first. Any thoughts related to dollar substance for this coming week?

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post #10 of 18
10/3/12 at 3:02pm

 

Attempt to re-gain the channel?

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post #11 of 18
10/4/12 at 2:10am

yep.. to keep it simple.. been something ive been watching.. went long around 79.10 buying expansion stopped and now its going to retrace.. Euro and other crosses need to test supports.

No one really realizes how much things have ran from the lows we saw somewhat recently. But this will take a few weeks i think. Be fun to watch.

 

On the other hand.. could be doing a right shoulder on the weekly view which would be extremely bullish for the market, but these patterns dont always complete.

oh oh a beautiful wedge on the monthly too.. from like april 2010 until now..

 

conflicting views in relative time frames.. and wouldn't want to get caught in a weekly or monthly confirmation while playing a daily chart .. the greater time frames will gain control.

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post #12 of 18
10/4/12 at 2:44am

We need to squeeze through this downward momentum first. Getting bumped back down here on deviation resistance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

That would mean resistance for ES would be in the mid 1460s where DX has support. 

Double top/double bottom action? Or do we floor right through and keep on chuggin' down with the dollar.

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post #13 of 18
10/4/12 at 5:01am

cant correlate it to a index, its not concrete or written in stone..  While the thought is nice and many have tried including myself...The mathematics and forces applicable to a index move change all the time and isnt directly linked to the USD. That relationship was broken months ago not to mention other crosses and yeilds come into play daily..  I would not suggest just basing trades off that only ever.. on no news perhaps base it but still have skepticism however,  during this time if you do, it will burn.  Too many unknowns.. so if you play it.. play a small position jmo. currency related futures can hurt just as much as forex directly.

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post #14 of 18
10/4/12 at 10:55am
Thanks Mjoke, I haven't ever based a trade on correlations but a lot of the guys I look up to do. Appreciate the help.
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post #15 of 18
10/4/12 at 5:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpr View Post

Thanks Mjoke, I haven't ever based a trade on correlations but a lot of the guys I look up to do. Appreciate the help.

Basing a trade on a correlation? No. Entering a trade with a good setup to begin with and considering yourself as having an extra edge in that trade based on a correlation that is acting normally and in your favor? All the time. One thing I like about the dollar here is that it is still at a pretty decent level, i.e. the dollar has pretty good value. It is well above where it was when Osama was killed (~73) and it is close to where it was a year ago today (major market bottom). To me this implies that if the market continues to move up, the strength in the dollar should not interfere with the market moving up, and in fact may move up in tandem, as it has done just that for prolonged periods in the last year. Also, if you consider that the dollar might be a safe haven currency right now, due partly to what's going on in Europe, then we can't even say for sure the dollar will drop that much if the market moves up yet another 5-10%. And to put it one last way, I'd have more trouble being long here if the dollar was at 71 (or below) compared to 79.xx.
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post #16 of 18
10/4/12 at 5:36pm

If pairs and trades were still valid then sure i would agree.. frankly i dont, unless its a metals play. Its not some magic index or leading anything..

these market moves rando mentions were facilitated by injection.. not killing of anything or anyone.

These injections are not present anymore in the form they use to be.. nor is the hand and hand correlation still present as we all saw that broken with the rise.. i dont know i find it somewhat irrational and irrelevant.

 

yeah.. people dont recall how much we have ran in just a short period on other crosses and yet.. they want to base the usd on trades.. not my idea of a good time.

GL with that.


Edited by mjoke - 10/4/12 at 5:51pm
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post #17 of 18
10/5/12 at 12:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpr View Post

We need to squeeze through this downward momentum first. Getting bumped back down here on deviation resistance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

That would mean resistance for ES would be in the mid 1460s where DX has support. 

Double top/double bottom action? Or do we floor right through and keep on chuggin' down with the dollar.

 

Well mid-1460s saw some topping action today, and DX found support in the range I thought it would. I more so thinking the Dollar is the reason why ES pulled back and not vice versa. I sold my dollar swing short, and am now long. Enjoying trading the Dollar more that s&p at this moment.

 

I'm looking for the dollar to use this support to squeeze out of this regression channel and move towards 82.

 

 

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post #18 of 18
10/10/12 at 1:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpr View Post

We need to squeeze through this downward momentum first. Getting bumped back down here on deviation resistance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

That would mean resistance for ES would be in the mid 1460s where DX has support. 

Double top/double bottom action? Or do we floor right through and keep on chuggin' down with the dollar.

 

double top indeed!

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