Stock Market Today : May 14th - 18th - Page 36

 

 

Not the way I read it Ichi and I'm not picking on Philo. Just saying to him and everyone else.

okay. gotcha

AAPL closed at a LOD. FML for holding longs and selling puts for a loss.

Way oversold today... Hermanpu's long spy will be a good call. We may well see a bounce tomorrow.

I went to lunch, came back just before close, and saw that DAL, UAL are down 7-8+ % (opposite of UVXY, right?)

(double-take; I thought the Iran bombing raids had started.  But I guess not ...)

Understand what you're saying, as 60 min. and daily charts are in extreme oversold condition, so a bounce wouldn't be a surprise.

However the weekly and monthly technical indicators are pointing strongly to the downside, with plenty of room to move lower, if not sooner, later.

Hope everybody does well!

> Rando:

> If you watch TRIN at all, it has been absurdly bullish relative to today's price action and other internals... it is flashing big bearish warning signs right now.

 

I wondered about that.  Flight to Safety?  (blue-chips?  assuming you'd meant the Nyse TRIN ..)

That looks almost like a panic sell/breakaway bearish daily bar on ES... wow indeed. About 2% from the 200 SMA, and less than 4% from UNCH on the year. Pretty amazing. ES did hit highest volume in 2012. I'm continuing to bide time hoping to see that big flush, but any sort of horrible open tomorrow might get the job done. Russell just imploding here.

Yeah NYSE TRIN. That must be a factor, Dow held in there well today, especially early. Also some bear ETFs might contribute... but something about it still feels funny. With breadth under -2200 and volume under -6, we should see TRIN close around 1.5 or so. Seeing it around 0.5 around noon was mind-bending.

FB stuff:

 

Date:                     May 17, 2012

Audience:           NYSE Arca Traders and Tech Vendors

Subject:               UPDATE:  Facebook IPO

Summary:

              

NYSE ARCA has determined that in the interest of a fair and orderly market and consistent with NYSE Arca Rule 7.35(g) , NYSE

ARCA will not run an auction in the Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) IPO, scheduled for Friday, May 18, 2012.

 

Accordingly, NYSE ARCA will not accept any orders in FB until the first FB print on NASDAQ.  Any orders in FB routed to Arca

prior to the first FB print on NASDAQ will be rejected.*

 

============================

 

Market System Status Message

Time	Market	Status
16:15:07 ET	NASDAQ	IPO Notice: The initial public offering of Facebook, Inc. (FB) will be released on NASDAQ tomorrow for quotation at 10:45 ET and trading at approximately 11:00. Please call 877-308-0523 if you have any questions. Reminder: Trading prohibited during quote-only period of IPOs.

Please refer to the link for additional system status updates.

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com//Trader.aspx?id=MarketSystemStatus

Note: The text beginning with "http" in this mail message is a link to a NASDAQTrader.com page. If you can't click on the link in this message, cut and paste it into your browser's "Address" box (near the top of the browser window). You may also have to cut and paste the link into the browser's "Address" box if it appears truncated.

Hey boys and girls.  I have updated my "Stock Price and Volume Tracker" spreadsheet to google docs.  Volume is still very light relatively speaking.  Once volume starts picking up dramatically, I would expect even heavier selling.  This may or may not happen in the coming weeks/months.

 

Good luck.  Here's the doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuGjAbvGjINjdFhnZHEweU8wdnZkRzktMFVzbTJYLVE

 

Yes sir SJ-e, and I'm now glad I went short a bunch at at e/s 1398. We blew through 1337 which was 1 standard deviation below the 50 MA and I will probably go partially long at e/s 1290 which is 2 standard deviations and strong support. That's of course if we get there? I will add at 1337 on the bounce if we break it? The last time SPX's price fell below the 1st std deviation of its 50 MA was during the 44 trading days between August 10th and October 4th when it bounced above and below its 1st std deviation. On August 4th last year it cleared it for good -- until a couple of days ago where it dipped below. The same pattern existed going into the October 2008 lows, March 2003 lows, and October 2002 lows.

Well, since everyone else is patting themselves on the back, I thought I'd do the same...should have stuck with my QQQ straddle plays...what a move

 

1300 may hold as support. If not, the only other way of me finding potential support would be regression channels, and next up with those would be 1250s.

 

LMFAO

 

 

 

 

anyways.. remember when we rallied to 1400 and we were all like wtf overbought & now everyone's like wtf oversold. lol anyways this market is crazy. all cash EOD everyday for me.

 

edit: going down until qe3 or something of the likes is announced IMO

A decent /ES trade right now IMO is long 03, stop below 97, target 20

 

You have a 50% chance. r/r is 1/7

Big Ben where are you?!?!?!?! WE need you! The Dollar is to expensive

BS! I'm leaving for Europe on Saturaday, I want this stronger dollar work for me. I don't want to be trading FOREX there.... lol.

Agreed, volume has been relatively tame. We did see a good uptick in volume over the last week, ES put in highest volume today since Dec 13-14. I think all it would take for a 'tradeable bottom' to be put in is one more significantly bigger day, say SPY 325-350 MM shares. There simply isn't the level of participation there was a few years back, and even compared to last August's meltdown, I don't think we will see those kinds of volume in a climactic thrust down.

The funny thing is, VIX has now closed above upper bolly four days running. The last time it closed above three days running that 3 day streak began on.... drum roll... August 4th.

1250s? UNCHd baby!! I think it was Mr. Topstep's opening print this morning that went over times when the S&P made a move of X percent, I think 8%, up off the new year, and since 1979 the S&P has made such a move and gone back to touch UNCH 33 times. By my math, that is exactly once per year from 1979-2011, which leads me to believe there are some years it didn't happen at all and some where it happened several times. So, at this point and with such a head of steam, it would be very hard to see that math and bet against seeing UNCH soon, and certainly some time in calendar '12.

Now would be a good time for us to dig up that thread with the poll about S&P high-low range for 2012. It would be fun to compile the predictions and compose a bell curve for HSM's predicted high-low to see how well we do, and also as a good reference point for where the key levels really may be... not that we're that smart or anything, but it would be interesting.